I don't know how much you all pay attention to polls.

I pay almost no attention at all to them. I mostly see them in headlines but usually don't go much deeper than that. Bernie currently ahead in New Hampshire is about all I need to know for the moment. Biden is losing ground. Chunks has pointed to a possible path for Bernie so I'm adding that into my models. Warren is still going to be seen as the centrist candidate between Biden and Bernie.

Primary voters are generally more conservative than public opinion, but I'm predicting an uptick in progressive voters this time around because Trump has energized his opposition on every front. The Trump Bump won't be felt as much in the primaries but left leaning voters are energized and may sway the election towards a more progressive candidate than Biden.

I think it is dangerous to think the election is in the bag.

It's dangerous when voters don't show up because the polls tell them they don't need to. Don't know why you'd think it dangerous to be confident that your candidate can win.
Good coffee, good weed, and time on my hands...