Jeffrey, cult leader or not, this election will boil down to how independents, swing voters, the less to non-partisan, non-affiliated vote views the two major party candidates. Which one they like more than the other.
As of 22 Mar Gallup puts party affiliation at 30% Republican, 30% Democrat, 36% independent. The largest voting block is independents. Now independents can be broken down into three groups, independents lean Republican, independents lean Democratic, pure or true independents with no leans.
Now if you're a statistical nut like me, that boils down to 39% of independent now leaning Democratic, 34% leaning Republican with 27% with no leans. If you add them all up, you'll have 44% of the electorate made up of Democrats and Democratic leaning independents vs. 42% of the electorate made up of Republicans and Republican leaning independents. That leaves 14% of the electorate that are classified as true or pure independents with no leans. They ones you must convince to vote for your candidate. It also shows that independents as a whole are siding with the Democrats although not enough to guarantee election of the Democratic candidate. So winning or nominating a candidate attractive to these independents is important if one wants to win.
Hillary wasn't, she lost. Gore wasn't, he lost, Carter wasn't in 1980, he lost and so too did Humphrey. 1980 really doesn't count as Reagan received 27% of the Democratic base vote when on average a Republican candidate receives less than 10%. Even Democrats had lost faith in Jimmy in 1980.
If you want to know or have a good idea how an election will turnout, you have to look at the candidates through a non-partisan, clear set of glasses, not tinted red nor blue. Easier said than done.
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.