well if we had election by popular vote your analysis may be meaningful, but as we have an electoral college ... not so much. As you said and as you well know, it doesn't matter if CA or NY votes overwhelmingly for the Democrat candidate, what really matters is the one vote which makes a Democrat win in PA.
I am not crunching anything at this time. I'll wait until Oct. Remember it was only 11 days out when Dir Comey killed Sec Clinton's bid.
Where is the electoral map?
Clinton did it to herself. I've posted the numerous reasons so many times, but it seems Clinton supporters just want to ignore them and put all the blame on someone other than the person who caused her own defeat.
So be it.