From your numbers guy, a comparison of 2016 vs 2020. Biden has a slight lead in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Arizona and surprisingly trails Trump by just 2 points in Texas. They are also tied in Florida, all states Trump won in 2016. The only state that Clinton won that Trump leads in is New Hampshire. A whole 3 electoral votes.
There is a huge difference between the early polls of 2016 and those of today. The first major polls of head to head action between Trump and Clinton in 2016 were taken in June, we had 7 of them to average out between 1-7 June 2016 between Trump and Hillary. Their average was a 5-point lead for Hillary 42-37 with 13% stating they would vote third party and 8% undecided.
Today, 11 Apr 2020, Biden leads Trump 49-43 with 4% stating they'll vote third party and 4% undecided. The huge difference is back in 2016 there was a pool of voters 21% of the remaining electorate where Trump could improve himself, Clinton could too among those who hadn't decided between the two. Today, that pool is down to 8%, not 21%. To really improve, Trump must take some votes away from Biden this year along with winning most of the undecided and convincing some third-party voters to vote for him. In 2016, Trump didn't need to take any voters away from Clinton, he had that huge pool of 21% of the electorate to play with, not just 8%.
In the end Trump managed to take 9 of that 21%, Clinton gained 6 and the rest stuck with third party candidates, 6%. In short, Biden is in a much stronger position this year, today than Hillary Clinton was in June 2016. Trump must convince some of those who have decided to vote for Biden this year to instead vote for him. This is something Trump didn’t need to do in 2016. He didn’t need to convince a single voter who had decided to vote for Clinton to change their minds and vote for him. He had that large pool of 21% of the electorate to play with. Not so this year.
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.