In 2006 only 30% of the electorate identified themselves as Independents, 37% Democratic, 31% Republican, today Independents are up to 40% with only 31% Democrat and 28% Republican.
It will be interesting to see in 2024 how that affiliation split goes. If Biden and a Democratic congress can fix everything Trump broke, a lot more independents might decide to call themselves democrats.
The history of party affiliation goes up and down, but we can look at averages thanks to Pew Research and Gallup. The Republicans have been constant since Eisenhower, 25-30% of the electorate. From a low of 21% in 1975 to a high of 32% during Reagan. The Democrats have been totally different. Averaging 45% from FDR until Reagan, then dropping down 35% until Obama and now at 31%. Twice the Democrats hit a high of 51% in 1961 and 1964.
Over this time we seen independents rise from 18% in 1950 up to 40% today. Independents hit 30% in 1974 and averaged 30% through 2006. Since then independents have slowly climbed steadily up until they reached 40% today.
As for 2024, it seems to me the normal range in this modern era of polarization and ultra high partisanship is the Democrats somewhere between 30-35% while the GOP retains their 25-30%. One thing is for certain, the dissatisfaction for both major parties are at an all time high. 55% of all Americans view the Democratic Party either somewhat or very unfavorably while 61% view the GOP either somewhat or very unfavorably.
This is the old only Democrats view their party favorably, only Republican view their party favorably while most independents view both parties unfavorably. Of course, independents should be no surprise there. If they didn't view both parties, if they didn't dislike both major parties, they'd belong to one or the other.
Edited by perotista (06/08/2012:52 PM)
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.