Originally Posted By: Greger
I wouldn't be upset if Tammy Ducktape got the call but Warren is still my favorite.

Pero, I figured this election was in the bag long ago. I'm usually wrong about these things but Trump seems to just be digging himself deeper and deeper into a hole he can never climb out of.

It has nothing to do with ideology and everything to do with idiocy.


I'm strictly a numbers guy, crunch them and go by what they tell me. I leave my heart and feelings out of it when it comes to doing my forecast. I also watch independents much more than either major party's base. Independents usually decide close election. If the election is going to be a landslide, independents are always on the side of the landslider by a huge margin.

Without winning independents by an average of 12 points in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida, Trump wouldn't have become president. Biden has been either even or up by a couple among independents in all those states until this last month. Now Biden has increased those leads between 5-8 points among independents. Even in my home state of Georgia, Biden has a lead among independents which puts Georgia in play.

Of course all of this is as of today. The way I tabulate it, if the election was held today, it's Biden 352-186 in the electoral college along with winning the popular vote by 10 points. Trump is doing an excellent job of turning red states blue which includes a few senate races. I'd say the Democrats pick up between 5-8 senate seats, but the House remains pretty stable with a seat or two going either way. The house staying basically the same is due to the Democrats having more seats in what I describe as at risk of switching/competitive seats vs. the GOP. The GOP lost most of their competitive/at risk of switching seats in 2018.
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It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.