November will be the perfect storm for Trump. We will either have more lockdowns or WAY more dead. Probably a mix of both. And the most dead will be in states that are Republican strongholds, because they resist the public health measures that save lives, the most. No vaccines will be available yet, or will be highly restricted to select groups. That's going to cause a lot of friction.

So this will be anything but a "normal election". Trump announcing he might not cooperate with orderly succession is not going to help him, either. I don't know how many Independents favor lifetime dictatorship, but it can't be many.