Originally Posted By: jgw
When Hillary lost the polls said she was going to win! The American voting public are pesky and can change their minds on a dime. All the pro-dem results are comforting but, until the election is called I remain concerned. Given the antics of Trump I won't be happy until a Dem takes the oath and moves into the white house. There is also the pile of things the Republicans have done to suppress the vote as well. Remember, it wasn't a Democrat that got caught messing with the votes. It was a Republican. They have a LOT more experience at this kind of stuff than the Democrats. Hopefully, for instance, the Democratic party is going to have people in every voting place watching stuff like a hawk as well.


Not really. What the national polls showed was Hillary up 3.3 points, she won by 2.1 points. Now remember there's a margin of error here of plus or minus 3 points. Basically all national polls were predicting Hillary winning the popular vote somewhere between 0.3 to 6.3 points. Her 2.1 win was well within that margin of error.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls...stein-5952.html

The polls were predicting a popular vote win which Hillary did.

This was RCP's electoral college scoreboard.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html

with 171 electoral in their tossup column, that's far from predicting a Hillary win. Granted, the pundits were predicting a Hillary win, some by exaggerated margins. But where were they getting their information from? Then again, when I see polls that are saying Hillary will win the national popular vote by 3-4 points, I wouldn't take too close a look at each state. It was probably assumptions, but you know what they say about assuming.

Of the late polls in Pennsylvania, Trafalgar had Trump winning by 1, Harper had it tied with Morning Call favoring Clinton by 6. But Morning Call had a margin of error of plus or minus 5.5 points. That gave them a lot of leeway.

Michigan, Trafalgar had Trump winning by 2, Gravis had Hillary by 5, the Detroit free press, Hillary by 4.

Wisconsin, there were no recent polls taken in November, just the latter part of October which made them useless. I can easily understand the pundits and prognosticators forecasting a Hillary win. I did also in my forecast. I went to bed around 10PM because I knew Hillary would win as I had resigned myself to at least 4 years of her. I was in shock when I woke up the next morning I couldn't believe it.

I knew Pennsylvania and Michigan were pure tossups. But I had given them to Hillary based only on those states voting history. The same with Wisconsin as I had nothing new to go on. Just some old polls more than a week old. Iowa also surprised me as Iowa had a long history also of voting Democratic in presidential elections.

I suppose the bottom line is the national polls were predicting Hillary would win the national popular vote. But we, even the pundits forgot the winner is determined in the electoral college. Me, I remembered that, but I placed 4 tossup states in the wrong column.


Edited by perotista (07/26/20 12:46 AM)
_________________________
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.