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Greger, NW Ponderer
Total Likes: 3
Original Post (Thread Starter)
#334044 05/05/2021 3:35 PM
by Greger
So things are shaping up...Biden has, thus far, been bulletproof, Republicans are fractured and pursuing the past rather than the future, backing a candidate that probably won't run, relying on a shrinking base for their votes, and backing unpopular policies...

We have some re-districting to be done and as it's mostly in the south it will be heavily Gerrymandered to be sure those new seats are Republican.

Normally I would expect the Senate(at least) to flip in 2022 because it's an American tradition to give two years of power to a president and then publicly castrate him for whatever he may have accomplished.

But this time might be different.

Old Joe and the Democrats might be heroes!

If Trump came in like a wrecking ball, Biden came in as the repair man.

And it is my opinion that American voters are going to reward him for it in 2022. Not necessarily with a gain in seats, but at least with minimal losses....I think the House is safe, but without DC statehood the Senate may flip back to Republicans. Perotista will examine all the races and give us the rundown soon. I think the roster favors Democrats slightly.

Florida's former Republican Governor, Charlie Crist, is once again, running for governor as a Democrat. If nominated he will lose.
Liked Replies
by jgw
In 2022 the Democrats are going to face, literally, crazy Trump infested crazy people who don't deal well with reality. Seems to me that should give the Dems some help. My real worry is that the Dems have an unfortunate problem with their messaging as everybody seems to have their own which makes it a bit difficult for voters to know just what the hell they are doing but, again, they won't be alone this time around as the Trump Republicans are, from my view, completely screwed up and no longer actually marching in the same parade either.
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by perotista
I'd be more worried about the House than the senate in 2022. There's 20 Republicans and 14 Democrats up for reelection in 2022. I'd say 3 Democratic seats are at risk. Georgia, New Hampshire and Arizona. Kelly looks good and could win easily. Warnock a slight favorite, Hassan, NH will probably face the current governor Chris Sununu which is well liked. Higher approval ratings than Hassan. Meaning 50-50 or slightly favoring Sununu. NH might be a Republican gain.

Three Republican senators are retiring, Burr, Toomey and Portman. Burr NC and Toomeny Penn retirement makes those seats at least 50-50, perhaps in Penn making the Democrats a slight favorite to pick up that seat. That a possible 2 seat gain for the democrats. Wisconsin may be another gain for the Democrats. Georgia, it all depends on who the Republicans choose as their nominee. If it is Walker, Georgia Bulldog and NFL star who wants to run as a Republican, perhaps making the GOP a slight favorite over Warnock. If someone else, Warnock would be favored.

Portman's retirement in Ohio still leaves that state as a GOP hold in my book. All other seats are solid or safe for the party that holds them.

Bottom line Democrats, 2 at risk with a possible third in Arizona. Republicans, three at risk. So there won't be much of a change. But the odds would favor a 1-2 seat pick up for the democrats. Could be another runoff in Georgia, Warnock vs. Hershel Walker which all depends on the Libertarian candidate who usually gets 2-5% of the vote down here.

The House, who the heck knows until redistricting takes place. The latest generic congressional poll, Democrats 47, Republicans 42. But that is nationally, which means little. It's one district at a time which counts, not nationally. Until the new districts are drawn, any speculation is a waste.
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