Capitol Hill Blue
Posted By: jgw The Vote Rule - 10/27/20 09:11 PM
Last night I was watching a TV politic thing and the subject seemed to be about young black voters. This one applies to ALL young voters. The simple fact is that young voters cannot be counted on to vote. I know, there are some interested enough to vote but, for the most part ............

The rule is this: If you don't vote you WILL be screwed over!

This is true for ALL ages but youth just doesn't. Politicians know who votes and who do not. Those that do not are, pretty much, ignored - by BOTH parties. This is true no matter the subject. If they are too lazy to vote them who cares? This should be taught in high school so they know as, obviously, they haven't a clue!
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: The Vote Rule - 10/28/20 03:03 AM
Voting makes little difference to the lives of ordinary Americans as their preferences are seldom, if ever, expressed in legislation.

The 2014 Princeton study confirmed what the majority of citizens know. It’s political performance art. Vote, don’t vote. Makes no difference. A feature not a bug, as they say.
Posted By: Greger Re: The Vote Rule - 10/28/20 03:29 AM
After just a few years, young voters aren't young anymore and they vote! Millenials are 26-40 years old now. I know a lot of them...they all vote. And the ones I know all vote Democratic.

And I've told you before...Zoomers are like Millenials on steroids.

Young people today are better informed than any generation in history, they know what's going on and they aren't happy about it.

And the thing about old people...after a while they just stop voting entirely...
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: The Vote Rule - 10/28/20 04:20 AM
The money shot:

“ What do our findings say about democracy in America? They certainly constitute troubling news for advocates of “populistic” democracy, who want govern- ments to respond primarily or exclusively to the policy preferences of their citizens. In the United States, our findings indicate, the majority does not rule—at least not in the causal sense of actually determining policy outcomes.
When a majority of citizens disagrees with economic elites or with organized interests, they generally lose. Moreover, because of the strong status quo bias built into the U.S. political system, even when fairly large majorities of Americans favor policy change, they generally do not get it.
A possible objection to populistic democracy is that average citizens are inattentive to politics and ignorant about public policy; why should we worry if their poorly- informed preferences do not influence policy making? Perhaps economic elites and interest-group leaders enjoy greater policy expertise than the average citizen does. Perhaps they know better which policies will benefit everyone, and perhaps they seek the common good, rather than selfish ends, when deciding which policies to support.


Princeton study

Doesn’t the first step to solving a problem admit to their being a problem?
Voting won’t be the solution. Not really sure there is one except organizing outside the establishment.

Millenials and Zoomers are in the most desperate straights so maybe desperate times, desperate actions, etc..
Posted By: perotista Re: The Vote Rule - 10/28/20 12:38 PM
The notion that the average citizen is ignorant policies and don't pay much if any attention to politics is probably correct. Numbers, 45% on average of Americans don't bother to vote in presidential elections. since 1970 we have had a low of 49% who voted in 1996 to a high of 58% in 2008. Midterms are a lot worst as on average only 37% of the people will vote in them. I suppose one could say that over 60% of the people don't care who represents them in congress.

That's over a 50 year time period. This in an era where we made voting easier and more available to everyone. I looked backed 50 years prior from 1920-1970 when everyone went to the polls in just one day, no early voting, no mail in ballots, outside of absentee for the military etc. You went to the polls on election day and that was it. 64% of Americans on average voted in presidential elections while 46% voted in the midterms.

Perhaps the average American really doesn't care all that much. Either that or they have come to the conclusion that voting is useless. Or as my son put it, he's 55 and never voted in his life. Why bother he says, Washington is going to do what Washington wants to do whether or not we want them to do it or not. It doesn't matter.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: The Vote Rule - 10/28/20 01:36 PM
The poors are less likely to vote for a variety of reasons but the one argument your son makes is probably the best.
That shouldn’t be confused with ignorance on the non-voters part. They know their reality better than anyone else does. Most Americans preferences fall on deaf ears. It’s the comfortably complacent class with its self re-forcing paternal logic that’s suspect.
This is fine, by the way, it leaves the food trough to a small slice of the two factions and their donors anyway.
If voting and it’s security was ever a priority for either party, they’d make it a federal paid holiday and use near impossible to hack paper ballots, counted and recorded in public, as was done recently in Bolivia. Even our spy’s couldn’t protest that election result. We have the very opposite of that. Not an accident.
Posted By: perotista Re: The Vote Rule - 10/28/20 02:26 PM
My son has never been interested in politics. He lives and dies on whether the Pittsburgh Steelers lose or win. Outside of the presidency, he couldn't tell you who held any other elected office to include the Governor.

I remember paper ballots, the counting was slow and one didn't know who won until the next day or even the day after. Some races the winner wasn't known for a week or two. We've come a long way, first with electronic voting machines, the big booth where you had to pull the curtain, then flip switches before pulling the lever, then punch cards and now computers.

The numbers show whatever we have done to make voting easier, less people are voting when it was only one day. Could it be the tone of elections? These days it's all negative, candidates trying to get the people to hate the other guy more than they hate you. Nothing positive is presented. Back 50 years ago, it was I have these ideas, this is what I want to do. I want to solve this problem, they gave you reasons why to vote for them. Today, the candidates present the other guy as the worst scumbag devil on the face of the earth, so don't vote for him without a single reason why anyone should vote for you.

I've seen so many political ads for Georgia's special senate election and all of them are nasty as all Hades. It make me not to want to vote for any of them. None have given me a reason to vote for them, just against everyone else.

It like, okay, I won't vote for you since everyone is the dirtiest scum of the earth, I'll vote Libertarian or green. Up yours, you convinced me none of the candidate are worthy.
Posted By: jgw Re: The Vote Rule - 10/28/20 06:02 PM
I think I wasn't clear. Let me try a different direction. Why in the world would anybody think that their government is interested in them if they don't vote in elections. Those who run the government are harassed, all the time, about, I suspect, just about everything from all sorts of people. That being the obvious case and they get harassed by a citizen they know doesn't vote why in the world would that citizen think that the politician would spend any of his/her time on their problem?

If the above makes sense then those that do not vote should be educated in common sense (I think the above is common sense)

The young that can vote and don't get regularly screwed. At 18 or 19 they get conned into getting into a debt they can't even banco out of! (there are other way they get screwed as well). The poor get screwed ALL THE TIME! Still, they don't vote so why should their elected give a damn?

I know, in both cases the policians should. The fact, however, is that they really don't.
Posted By: perotista Re: The Vote Rule - 10/28/20 06:35 PM
Would voting solve the problem? I don't think so. Both major parties owe their heart and soul to the moneyed folks, to corporations, wall street firms, lobbyist, special interest groups, mega money donors. One party actually embraces all of the above and the other does so with a wink and a nod. I'm going to talk bad about you now, but don't worry, I'll take care of you. That's where the two major parties get their tens and hundreds of millions of dollars from to run their organizations and campaigns.

An example, congress may raise taxes on all these folks, the tax rates that is. That makes all of us feel good, they're now going to pay their fair share. But congress will include many loopholes so their effective tax rate remains the same. Very few will ever look at the effective tax rate, just at the top rate or percentage of taxation.

You have only two choices in reality although some of us opt to vote third party on occasion. You end up voting for either overt or covert money. One party hides this fact better than the other.
Posted By: pondering_it_all Re: The Vote Rule - 10/28/20 07:01 PM
Quote:
I remember paper ballots, the counting was slow


California has been using paper ballots for years. Mail ballots are the same as in-person voting. They run them through scanners and get the totals in a few hours. Impossible to hack, and recountable.

California has about 1/5th the population of the US.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: The Vote Rule - 10/28/20 07:32 PM
Quote:
Both major parties owe their heart and soul to the moneyed folks, to corporations, wall street firms, lobbyist, special interest groups, mega money donors.


Turns out that people with money have always gotten preferential treatment from governments. All they did was go to county court and request infrastructure (remember America was an agrarian society until about 1890) to take their goods to market and governments were compliant. Of course there was a penalty of sorts. Personal property & real estate tax. Yep ... people were taxed on their personal property ... gold watches, coaches, race horses, etc., basically stated as a wealth tax.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: The Vote Rule - 10/28/20 07:35 PM
Paper ballots ..... LOL

But do you remember when local papers published a list by name of who voted for whom in elections. Yep they used to do it. Secret ballots .... some modern nonsense.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: The Vote Rule - 10/28/20 10:16 PM
Originally Posted By: rporter314
Paper ballots ..... LOL

But do you remember when local papers published a list by name of who voted for whom in elections. Yep they used to do it. Secret ballots .... some modern nonsense.


Yeah, paper ballots. Lots of good research on various types of voting tech and security.. Paper ballot wins. Look into it

It's what allowed left politics to resume where our supported coup interrupted in Bolivia. Hard to hack. That and an overwhelming victory at the polls.

Our elections security is shaky at best.

Mail-in's allow more reasons for ballots to be disregarded, by the way. Harder to stop one from voting in person, many arbitrary rules to be used with the mail in. Lawyer up indeed.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: The Vote Rule - 10/28/20 10:22 PM
It's perfectly simple...

Posted By: pdx rick Re: The Vote Rule - 10/29/20 12:24 PM
Originally Posted By: chunkstyle
Originally Posted By: rporter314
Paper ballots ..... LOL

But do you remember when local papers published a list by name of who voted for whom in elections. Yep they used to do it. Secret ballots .... some modern nonsense.


Yeah, paper ballots. Lots of good research on various types of voting tech and security.. Paper ballot wins.

Chunk is right about paper ballots. Hmm
Posted By: jgw Re: The Vote Rule - 10/29/20 07:50 PM
Most of our elected know who brought them to the party and try to accommodate their wishes if possible. that's just the way it is (at least that has been my experience) I think what you are suggesting is that they only listen to only them that paid for their election and, that, I think, is not true as that would be a sure way to lose votes.

As far as the rest is concerned I will forego speculation as first we gotta win and then see what happens. THEN, if right, you will have the pleasure of crowing your incredible powers of prediction, prognostication and prophecy! (seems fair to me!)
Posted By: jgw Re: The Vote Rule - 10/29/20 08:08 PM
I wrote to my county's auditor about how they count the votes and how fast their readers are. Here is what she told me (pretty interesting!):

Our ballot scanner reads about 200 images per minute. Here is a link to a PDF that has quick points about the scanner we use. https://www.fujitsu.com/us/Images/fi-6400_Brochure_052115_v2.pdf

I am also including a link to a video from Pierce County Elections. They use the same Clear Ballot Tabulation system we use. Scroll to the bottom of the page. https://clearballot.com/products/clear-count It's a great eight minute video that talks all about the system. Shortly after the beginning of the video you will see a quick shot of the scanner above scanning in a couple of ballots. Please remember they are a bigger county, so the amount of people they have working in the video is on a much larger scale than Clallam County, but the overall process is almost the same.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: The Vote Rule - 10/29/20 09:58 PM
Originally Posted By: jgw


As far as the rest is concerned I will forego speculation as first we gotta win and then see what happens. THEN, if right, you will have the pleasure of crowing your incredible powers of prediction, prognostication and prophecy! (seems fair to me!)


My prediction: A venal, corrupt, pathological liar with a history of sexual harassment will be elected and the rich will get richer.

Wanna bet JGW?
Posted By: Greger Re: The Vote Rule - 10/30/20 02:10 AM
Quote:
A venal, corrupt, pathological liar with a history of sexual harassment will be elected and the rich will get richer.


Seriously? The guy who rode the train home from DC every night for 35 years? I'm not exactly ideologically aligned with the man and I wanted ANYBODY but him to be the president. But he's a decent guy who has done more than most in congress for working people. He'll be a decent president.

I wanted a fun and exciting president. But right now decent suits me fine.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: The Vote Rule - 10/31/20 08:43 PM
No, I’m not.
He has a history. You can either ignore it or buy into the campaign narrative ads but it’s there to be discussed.

One thing about the timed is how unable so many people are to admit to the current moment. Russia conspiracy on one side, pedophilia, adrenacrome harvesting caves on the other. Chinese setting off viruses to wreck our economy, pee tapes and phoney dossiers.



I’m not going to kid myself into believing the ‘lunchbox Joe’ campaign ad fantasies.

I’ve posted my short list on his negatives not long ago. What you got?
Posted By: Greger Re: The Vote Rule - 11/01/20 03:35 PM
You're asking ME to say good things about Biden?

The only thing good about Biden is that he's not Donald Trump. Right now, that's enough for me.

I'm not much of a history buff so I'll judge Biden by his actions as president. I don't expect a lot. But I expect a lot worse if Trump is re-elected.
Posted By: logtroll Re: The Vote Rule - 11/01/20 11:59 PM
My ballot gave me the option to vote for Trump or Biden. I voted for Biden.

Hmm
Posted By: logtroll Re: The Vote Rule - 11/02/20 12:36 AM
In truth, there were some other candidates on the ballot, but I had never heard of any of them. Pretty sure they didn’t have any chance of winning.

Did I do a bad thing by casting my vote for Biden?
Posted By: Greger Re: The Vote Rule - 11/02/20 01:55 AM
Biden is not a 'good thing' in any way, shape, or form. He's a place holder and Harris is the anointed heiress to The Resolute desk. The Party played their hand well and got what they wanted. But the left has grown stronger as well! We just voted for a $15 minimum wage in Florida, and for open primaries(state only).

Biden is where the pendulum pauses, that moment in time before it begins the inevitable swing to the left!
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: The Vote Rule - 11/02/20 02:43 PM
I’m not as optimistic as you are Gregor.

Without pressure from below, outside of the performative vote ritual, most of the time representatives will sniff the air for a dollar or succumb to brand discipline.

So where are those pressures? Without class consciousness and politics, your left with little more than culture wars and virtue signaling to build coalitions with. Something the left has been engaged with since the sixties, IMO.

Sanders was a good attempt at class politics but it may take a depression to help people understand that liberals and conservatives are a club, as Carlin pointed out, and most ain’t in it.

Brand loyalty is a powerful market tool. It sells immense tonnage of junk every year. It sells politics as well. To think that a couple of hundred thousand dollars worth of Rubles could sway an election against a billion dollars worth of propaganda advertising, costing Dems the 2016 election, is absurd, but a good example of the strength of consumer brand politics over class.

I just don’t see that dynamic changing anytime soon. I would like to be proven wrong but when have we been as atomized as we are in today’s society?
Posted By: Greger Re: The Vote Rule - 11/02/20 09:22 PM
Quote:
I’m not as optimistic as you are, Greger.


You can look at the gray clouds or you can search for silver linings.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: The Vote Rule - 11/02/20 10:02 PM
Posted By: Greger Re: The Vote Rule - 11/03/20 01:58 AM
There will always be more sh*t than there will be wishes come true.

More gray cloud than silver lining. So it's a lot easier to see.

I believe there is a definite path to social democracy in the United States. Our constitution was practically written for it, younger generations are all for it, and Boomers are fading fast. McConnell, for instance, will likely not finish his next term.

Yessir, I see a path through the wilderness where you just see a tangle.
Posted By: pondering_it_all Re: The Vote Rule - 11/03/20 06:35 AM
McTurtle may not even live until his next term, even if he wins. That Black Death look is pretty damned scary. Almost makes me believe in God or at least Karma.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: The Vote Rule - 11/03/20 12:48 PM
Back to JGW’s original point of victim blaming public policy outcomes as it relates to voting. From the Institute for New Economic Thinking:

“The idea that public opinion powers at least the broad direction of public policy in formally democratic countries like the United States has been an article of faith in both political science and public economics for generations.[i] Especially during the Cold War, direct tests of this hypothesis by social scientists were rare – indeed, questioning it was often considered un-American. But not long after the U.S. government dramatically ushered in a single payer insurance system for banks but not the rest of the population in 2008, long simmering doubts began to crystallize...
... Their unsettling conclusion startled many: “Not only do ordinary citizens not have uniquely substantial power over policy decisions; they have little or no independent influence on policy at all.”[ii] The pair reaffirmed Gilens’ assessment in an earlier study that knowing what high income Americans think matters a lot: If opinion shifts among those at the 90th percentile of income and above, changes in policy in the direction they want become far more likely.”

Affluent Authoritarianism: McGuire and Delahunt’s New Evidence on Public Opinion and Policy

Pretty much confirms what the works of others, Picketty, Graeber, etc.. have shown to be the case. Voting is mostly performative for 90% of voters.
This is a frat house fight that ordinary Americans have little interest in the outcome in a real sense so it’s up to the media to whip up the hicks, or ‘manufacture consent’ as Chomsky puts it.
So no, voting has little effect on policy outcomes for the vast majority of Americans JGW. Unless you have any proof that says otherwise your just blaming people for their situation instead of the institutions that are engaged in doing the screwing.
But then dealing with the current reality is not on the agenda for much of the country anyway. The fact that we live in an illiberal democracy doesn’t enter into these types of conversations for those doing the victim blaming.


Posted By: jgw Re: The Vote Rule - 11/05/20 07:58 PM
So, basically, we all live in a place where nobody has any influence over anything because nothing is happening.

Interesting ..............
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: The Vote Rule - 11/05/20 09:25 PM
I guess that's a takeaway someone could have. An odd takeaway but I'm not going to argue with your impression of the report.
Posted By: Greger Re: The Vote Rule - 11/06/20 03:36 PM
Originally Posted By: jgw
So, basically, we all live in a place where nobody has any influence over anything because nothing is happening.

Interesting ..............

No...basically we all live in a place where money is the only real influence that matters. And everything that happens benefits those with the most money.
Posted By: jgw Re: The Vote Rule - 11/06/20 05:53 PM
You are, pretty much, spot on with that one. I have friends who voted for Trump because they were concerned that biden would sink the market. Its a strange choice. The market is going to dump but that's what covid-19 does when everybody is hiding out and not spending their money.
Posted By: pondering_it_all Re: The Vote Rule - 11/06/20 06:33 PM
Quote:
The market is going to dump


I don't know about that: The SPY ETF is up 0.14%. DJIA is down 0.18%.

Wall street might prefer stability over insanity. We'll start getting vaccines approved soon. Watch Mister Market then!
Posted By: jgw Re: The Vote Rule - 11/07/20 06:08 PM
You may be right! Still, its gonna dump! There is the law on this, however. What goes down goes up and what goes up goes down. That's just the way it is. I have a bigger concern about the dollar than the market. The dollar is backed by our economy and our economy has been steadily dumping for months. There are ways to deal but that's just not gonna happen. Trump is going to remain in power for over two more months. The way its going he is going to make damned sure that Biden inherits disaster. He got two months coming up that we are just going to hate as its got no place to go but down. Hopefully I am wrong but covid, so far, sure as hell is winning that war with all the help the current administration can give it.

The market thing scares me because I keep seeing friends selling at the bottom and getting in again. Most tend to blame that on somebody else. Its kinda painful. The market is going to dump because of Covid-19 By now people are starting to understand that they can be next and they are hiding out. There are also a LOT more homeless as well as those who have lost their houses. The States are starving and big cities are cutting back because they are broke. Again - its gonna dump and its gonna dump bigtime. A great vaccine would really help but that's a ways away I think although the Chinese seem to be proving theirs with a LOT of tested.
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