Capitol Hill Blue
Posted By: perotista Jungle Primaries and Rank Choice Voting - 03/30/21 11:55 PM
I'm a huge fan of jungle primaries or non-partisan primaries, ranked choice, not so much.

"Group backed by Murdoch daughter-in-law targets primary elections as a 'threat to democracy'"

Louisiana has utilized jungle primaries for as long as I can remember. Here in Georgia we've had them in the special elections for CD-6 and for the senate last year. California used the jungle primary system for their senate race.

I'm interested to see what you all think.

If you're wondering where I've been, I've just been watching the political developments as in the context for the 2022 election which so far I haven't seen anything that would have any influence on the upcoming midterms. Now I think these jungle or non-partisan primaries where all candidates are on the ballot regardless of party along with ranked voting certainly could.

Interesting that Alaska is going to the jungle primary, so Trump targeting Murkowski very well could be a total waste of time.

I agree with Kathryn Murdoch in that our present primary system is a direct threat to our democracy.
Posted By: Greger Re: Jungle Primaries and Rank Choice Voting - 03/31/21 03:09 AM
our present primary system is a direct threat to our democracy.

I agree, it seems to weed out all the good candidates and leave us with the dreck.

I haven't seen anything yet that's liable to effect the midterms yet. Trump is going to be playing revenge politics and pitting republicans against republicans in his bid to unseat those who were disloyal to him.

I think that's gonna backfire.

Fate has dealt Biden a slam dunk. I'm betting that the next two years are going to be really really good years. And the Democrats are going to get the credit. I see a net gain in congressional seats for democrats in '22 unless something happens to change that.

Readerant will be going offline for a while as we move to a new server I hope to see you all on the other side....
I agree that the revenge politics of Trump is liable to backfire. He and his followers will defeat an incumbent in the primary causing an open seat. An open seat is much easier to win than beating an incumbent.

But before I get giddy if I were a Democrat, I'd wait to see how reapportionment plays out along with the redrawing of congressional districts. I haven't seen anything new on the reapportionment Here's the latest that I have.

If the projections are correct, New York, Michigan, Minnesota, Illinois, Pennsylvania, California, Rhode Island, Ohio, West Virginia and Alabama all lose one. Texas gains 3, Florida 2, those gaining 1, North Carolina, Arizona, Colorado, Montana and Oregon.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Jungle Primaries and Rank Choice Voting - 03/31/21 07:00 PM
Originally Posted By: perotista
I agree that the revenge politics of Trump is liable to backfire. .

Trump...isn't he that twice impeached guy who lost the House, Senate and White House all in 24 months and who's so broke now that his 30 year old 757 is sitting on a tarmac in New York broken down and has been broken down since Inaugural Day 2021?

THAT guy? coffee , rolleyes
Posted By: Greger Re: Jungle Primaries and Rank Choice Voting - 03/31/21 08:09 PM
THAT guy still has the republican party by the short hairs and they will dance when he pulls their strings.
If the GOP does, dance to Trump's string pulling, that is their problem as far as I'm concerned.

I just received my March update of party affiliation from Gallup. Interesting if one compares election day, Nov 2020 to today, Mar 2021. Percentage of the electorate.

Republicans Nov 2020 30%, Mar 2021 25%
Democrats Nov 2020 31% Mar 2021 32%
Independents Nov 2020 38%, Mar 2021 41%.

Independent Break down. Percentage of the total electorate
independents lean Democratic Nov 2020 17%, Mar 2021 15%
independents leans Republican Nov 2020 15%, Mar 2021 15%
independents with no leans, true or pure independents Nov 2020 6%, Mar 2021 11%.

Being as dynamic as party affiliation is, these numbers don't mean anything for 2022. But it's interesting that the Republican Party has dropped five point since November 2020, while the Democratic Party gained but a single point. The rest went into the independent column.

Also the Democratic Party lost a couple of points among independents lean Democratic while independents with no leans rose five points.

It seems the numbers point to Republicans who dislike Trump and his control moved out of the Republican Party. But they refuse to join the Democratic Party becoming independents. Independents with no leans which could mean a change in their voting habits or it might not.

Anyway one looks at it, the Republican Party has a huge Problem. That problem, Trump in my opinion.
Posted By: Greger Re: Jungle Primaries and Rank Choice Voting - 04/01/21 09:10 PM
I still question your "pure" independents.

But still it's no surprise that while Republican numbers shrunk due to Trump's antics, the Dem column didn't go up by much. Former Republicans are conservative and unlikely to become liberals overnight.

Independent candidates, especially of the "pure" variety, are pretty hard to find, so that puts most of them voting for Democrats and Republicans whether they are party members or not. Conservatives will generally vote Republican, liberals will generally vote Democrat. A smattering will vote third party.

It's all a matter of trigger points and what get the most of 'em off the couch.

Turned out Trump was hated more than he was loved. But the polls told us that for four solid years...that Trump never commanded the respect of half the nation. This was the easiest presidential race EVER to predict.

Biden has got his finger on the pulse of the nation. Common sense stuff mostly, coupled with old fashioned political savvy...

Old Uncle Joe gonna be walkin' in high cotton come 2022...and in 2024 will be ready to retire from a successful term.

It's gonna be interesting watching the Republican Party try to come back from the Trump isn't gonna be easy and it isn't gonna happen before 2022.
Yeah, the GOP is in-between a rock and a hard place. How to get rid of Trump and still retain his followers or have them to continue to vote Republican won't be easy. They're following the man, not the party.

I really haven't seen anything or received anything to go by for any prediction about 2022. Until reapportionment happens and the new district lines are drawn, I'd say one is wasting their time trying to forecast or predict 2022.

Perhaps the question to be asked is how long will it last that Biden can bask in the sunlight of not being Trump. Perhaps this early it is just best to look at party affiliation in the context of members and independent leaners.

As of 15 Mar 2021 Republicans plus Republican leaners 40%. Democrats plus democratic leaners 47%. Now compare those numbers to Nov 2020. Republicans plus republican leaners 45%, Democrats plus Democratic leaners 48%. Since Nov 2020 the Democrats have gone from a 3 point advantage to a 7 point advantage.

Now these numbers are dynamic and change constantly, but for the Democratic Party, the trend is in their direction. Now I'd wait six months and compare them again. Biden and company are still basically in the honeymoon phase.

As of 31 March of a presdent's first year, here are their overall job approval numbers.

Biden 54%
Trump 40%
Obama 62%
Bush II 53%
Bill Clinton 52%
Bush I 58%
Reagan 60%
Carter 72%
Posted By: jgw Re: Jungle Primaries and Rank Choice Voting - 04/02/21 06:03 PM
I just re-read the voting thing (H.R.1) and found I was completely wrong about the 16 year old voting. I will let it be but please be advised that I was wrong about that one!

I think I heard that the Dems, in their infinite wisdom, wants all 16 year old folk to have the vote. There were a few other things in some of their other bills, from the house, that were just flat out bizarre. Nobody is really talking about this. The Republicans, in their infinite wisdom, are whining that the Democrats are not sharing but, for some very strange reason, are not really talking about this stuff. I wonder, are they planning to let the Dems have it all and THEN start telling everybody what was in the legislation?

I find it pretty strange and would recommend just giving the proposed legislation a bit of a read to see what is really going on. Its all out there!
Posted By: Greger Re: Jungle Primaries and Rank Choice Voting - 04/02/21 08:43 PM
Perhaps the question to be asked is how long will it last that Biden can bask in the sunlight of not being Trump.

About two years is my guess.

I'm not making predictions so much as speculating about the most likely scenario to play out over the next two years....

Pandemic will be resolved.
Economy will bounce back.
Dems will get the credit.

We all know that normally the party in power loses seats at the mid-terms...but these have not been normal times and this next election could go very well for Democrats.

Speculation welcomed. Since FDR only G.W. Bush in 2002 gained house seats in their first midterm. Every other president lost seats. G.W. Bush had 9-11 happen during his first term which united the country behind him and the Republican Party. If no 9-11, I'm positive he too would have lost seats.

First midterm house losses

Trump lost 43 seats in 2018 Lost control of the house.
Obama lost 63 seats in 2010 lost control of the house
**Bush gained 8 seats in 2002
Clinton lost 54 seats in 1994 lost control of the house
Bush lost 8 seats in 1990
Reagan lost 26 seats in 1982
Carter lost 15 seats in 1978
Nixon lost 12 seats in 1970
*LBJ lost 47 seats in 1966
JFK lost 4 seats in 1962
Eisenhower lost 18 seats in 1954 lost control of the house
Truman lost 28 seats in 1950
FDR gained 11 seats in 1934

*LBJ lost 47 seats in 1966, but he could afford the big loss. His majority fell from 295 down to 248. From a 155-seat majority down to a 61 seat majority.

**G.W. Bush lost 33 seats in 2006 and lost control of the house.

I have no doubt that if the midterm was held today, the Democrats would gain seats, perhaps in double digits in the house and a couple of more senate seats. But the midterm is 18 months away with reapportionment and the drawings of new district lines.

A lot of unforeseen events and happenings can happen between now and then. So, no predictions from me this far out.
Speaking of the Republicans being between a rock and a hard place when it comes to Trump and his followers and attracting or having a candidate win in the GOP primary that has a chance of winning in the general. Here's how the Virginia GOP are facing that problem.

"Can it retain voters drawn to the party because of former President Donald Trump and his style of politics, but at the same time push, nudge or maneuver Trump-like candidates like Chase who are likely to lose winnable elections out of the way?"
Posted By: Greger Re: Jungle Primaries and Rank Choice Voting - 04/03/21 02:41 PM
I'm gonna miss these discussions, Pero.

You seem to see the big picture much like I do.
This is weird, the new site. It took me two days to find out if anyone replied to my post. Before I could just click on my posts and see who responded and respond myself.

That said, why are you going to miss our discussions? You do seem to me to understand the big picture also and to acknowledge reasons behind election losses without providing a ton of partisan excuses. being a non-partisan myself, I really like that.

I'm still not sure you understand how taking folks out of their comfort zone can cause an election loss ALA 2010 with the ACA and Trump's obnoxious personality in 2018 and 2020. People, at least independents were totally uncomfortable with Trump's persona and unpresidential behavior. Not so much his policies as independents were for some and against others with a whole lot of indifference to the rest.

Once reapportionment occurs and redistricting along with it, I'll have quite a lot to say about the 2022 midterms. Until then, I'm sitting and watching. Keeping the pulse of the independent voter which according to Gallup now makes up 41% of the electorate. Of course you have the leans, but 11% of the electorate with no leans must be a record high.
Posted By: Greger Re: Jungle Primaries and Rank Choice Voting - 04/06/21 12:40 AM
why are you going to miss our discussions?

I thought the board was shutting down.

My theory on voter comfort zones is that when one voter is nudged out of his comfort zone another takes his place. It's a constant ebb and flow.

Unless both sides and the mushy middle are against something...
Like the ACA
Righties thought it went too far, lefties thought it didn't go far enough
As always, the middle was evenly split....

Now that Republicans have had their little temper tantrum Dems are back in power and can advance healthcare again...among other things.
Interesting thought on the comfort zone. At least with independents, I think more can leave that comfort zone than is replaced. That could be the big reason independents at times are all over the place. Here's my take on the most recent elections involving independents.

2006 independents voted Democratic by a margin of 57-39 over Republicans with 4% voting third party. I think independents became fed up with Republican rule and the wars..

2008 independents voted for Obama by a 52-44 margin over McCain.Independents voted 52-45 for Democratic congressional candidates. Throw in the recession to go with the two reason for 2006.

2010 independents voted 56-37 Republican over Democrat with 7% voting third party. This one I would say took independents out of their comfort zone. Most were happy and well satisfied with the health insurance they had. Now they looked at the unknown future, the unknown as to how the ACA would effect their insurance. Interesting to note just four years ago independents went Democratic by 18 point, this year Republican by 19, a swing of 37 points. That's is quite drastic.

2012 independents voted for Romney by a 51-48 margin, close to a wash. Independents voted 50-49 for Republican congressional candidates. Basically a status quo election. Let things continue as they have for the last two years.

2014 independents voted 54-42 for Republican congressional candidates. The GOP also won back control of the senate this year. From a plus one from independents 2 years ago to a plus 12 this year. Most still uncertain and worried about the ACA. Out of their comfort zone.

2016 Independents voted for Trump 46-42 with 12% voting third party. In congressional election independents voted Republican 51-47. I'd say most independents didn't know which way to go in either the presidential and congressional. A Gallup poll showed 54% of all independent disliked and didn't want neither Clinton nor Trump to become their next president.

2018 Independents voted for the Democratic congressional candidates by a 54-42 margin with 4% voting third party. Independents very uncomfortable with Trump, he took them totally out of their comfort zone.A swing of plus 4 for the GOP in 2016 congressional races to a minus 12. A swing of 16 points.

2020 Independents voted for Biden 54-41 with 5% voting third party. In Congressional elections independents voted Democratic 50-48. This I really don't know how to take. How can independents give Biden a 13 point win other than being totally anti Trump. Then give the Democratic congressional candidates just a 2 point margin. Many ticket splitters voting against Trump, then Republican down ballot. This is probably the most interesting and for me, the most unexplainable stat of this whole thing.

I think the down ballot results among independents showed they weren't happy with either congressional delegation. That presidential wise, they wanted Trump gone, but didn't really want the Democrats in full charge. I could and probably am reading too much into this. But I'd say, 2020 provided no mandate, nor endorsement nor rejection of either party's ideals and agenda, etc.

Maybe they're like me, I wanted Trump gone and for the time being, I happy and totally satisfied with that. Now what the future holds, time will tell. I may become unhappy and dissatisfied or I might continue to enjoy the Biden presidency.
Posted By: Greger Re: Jungle Primaries and Rank Choice Voting - 04/07/21 01:43 AM
This last election was easy to explain...voters hated Trump, they didn't hate their local Senator, so mostly they re-elected them.

When a moderate right leaner(like yourself) gets bumped from his comfort zone there is normally a moderate left leaning individual who suddenly finds himself MORE comfortable. It ebbs and flows.

Hot button issues are used by the propogandists to jostle people around within their comfort zones...
That sounds good. But there are more times when one enters their comfort zone than leaves hence the difference in how independents vote. This year many more were uncomfortable with Trump than Biden thus giving Biden a 13 point advantage. The same for 2018 when the Democratic congressional candidates rang up a 12 point advantage among independents.

2016 quite a lot of independents, 54% if Gallup is to be believed were uncomfortable with both presidential candidates. This resulted in 12% voting third party against both along with giving Trump a four point advantage.

We've seen these huge swings before, the Democrats having a big 18 point advantage in 2006 only to swing to the Republicans gaining a 19 point advantage among these same voters in 2010..

So the one for one equation really doesn't work. One leaving and one entering. Here the latest party affiliation from Gallup.

Quarterly Gap in Party Affiliation Largest Since 2012
Posted By: Greger Re: Jungle Primaries and Rank Choice Voting - 04/07/21 03:44 PM
But there are more times when one enters their comfort zone than leaves hence the difference in how independents vote.

And the parties and propogandists want to keep it that way. They do everything in their power to keep the nation evenly divided.

Most of us just float along in our comfort zones voting for the party that most closely matches our inherent ideological lean.

The 2016 election was a fluke. I've said it many times. Any polls related to that election are flawed. Hillary Clinton was not a flawed candidate. She would have been an excellent president, very much like Biden.

She won the election by 3 Million Votes! How the hell can you call that flawed?

Just like you...she believed the polls...just like all of us...the win was assured. It was quite a shock to all of us. Because it was a fecking FLUKE!

2010, which is easy to blame on the ACA, was nothing more than a racist uprising against a Black president. The ACA just happened to get caught up in the middle of it. Polls around that one are skewed too. That was the TEA Party uprising. Exactly the same woodwork dwellers who make up the MAGAverse.

Most polls are skewed, for one reason or another.....

What I try to look for is the trends in public opinion that skew the polls, which are also the trends that drive elections. Spot the trends and you know how the polls will turn out before they are taken.
Propagandist or whatever, we're not evenly divided anymore. The Democratic Party is slowly pulling ahead much like it was from JFK until Reagan. Roughly 45-25 advantage for the Democrats. That advantage was inflated mainly due to the solid Democratic South which was beginning to become Republican during Reagan and became Republican for the most part after Reagan.

This helped the Democrats retain control of the House for 40 straight years and 58 of 62 going back to FDR and ending in 1994. Reagan brought a 20 point deficit to the Democrats down to 5 points where it has basically stayed within a point or two up or down until this year. Now Gallup gives the Democrats an 9 point advantage,

One can thank Trump for the gain. I would say what we're seeing is some Republicans becoming independents while some independents are moving to the Democratic Party.

Trends are the way to look at all of this involving polls. The Democratic Party has moved from a 3 point advantage in Nov 2020 to 9 points today and that seems to be increasing slowly. Regardless, the bottom line is the Republican Party is still the smaller of the two major parties and has been since FDR. They must win the independent vote or lose the election. Trump is certainly driving independents away from the GOP, independents lean Republican I mean.

The GOP base is down to 25% of the total electorate, 40% counting the base and independents lean Republican. The Democratic base has risen but a single point since Nov 2020 to 32% today, but counting independents lean Democratic, they're up to 49% of the electorate. Now that is what I'd call a positive trend for the Democrats.
Posted By: Greger Re: Jungle Primaries and Rank Choice Voting - 04/08/21 04:19 PM
Now that is what I'd call a positive trend for the Democrats.

And that is the very trend I told you was underway. It's beginning to show up in the polls.

I expect that very same trend to hold pretty steady into the midterms.

Joe Manchin is holding the Biden agenda hostage, but in the long run I think it will prove to be worth it. Fewer voters will be bumped out of their comfort zones in either direction. Less turmoil and less chance for the MAGAverse to have any impact in 2022.

The Game of Seats is playing out nicely at present for the Democrats but who knows what the future holds....
Exactly. That how I see it also. Manchin may be actually helping the Democrats to remain in control.Going slow and steady has the advantage of accomplishing one agenda over the long haul. Trying to get everything done the first year tends to take folks out of their comfort zone. Little steps toward the goal keeps the people behind you. Taking gigantic leaps usually leads to confusion, perhaps turmoil and a lot of misunderstanding which lead to the loss of one's comfort zone.

An interesting aside, Trafalgar published its first poll on our 2022 senate race. Walker leads Warnock, but Warnock leads both Collins and Loefler. Collins and Loefler are Trumpers, Walker, is Herschel Walker the former football player.
Don 't overlook the effect prosecution could have on congress members like Green, Loeffler, Hawley, and Cruz: It doesn't matter how popular their actions are with their constituents back home. When you go to Washington DC and commit crimes, you are subject to federal prosecution, grand juries drawn from the very Democratic DC population, and local criminal trial juries. People back in Georgia or Florida can howl all they want: If you are convicted of giving aid or comfort to insurrectionists, you are banned from ever holding office again, if not sent to prison.

Same thing for Representative Sex Trafficker: Federal Grand Jury, Federal prosecutor. Federal jury, Federal prison. 17 year old sex partners may be fine in Florida, but that's not the charges that will be filed.
I haven't seen or heard of any prosecution going forward on those mentioned. That doesn't mean it isn't so, Loeffler to out of politics and if the Georgia polls are correct, she's bound to stay that way. She was a Governor appointee to the senate, she didn't win her seat in an election.

Green, Hawley, Cruz, who knows if there are behind the scenes investigations going on. Green won her district here in Georgia 230,000 to 78,000 votes over the Democrat. She's from a safe GOP district which most Republicans congressional critters are due to the court ordered majority minority districts which place most of Georgia's black population into 5 congressional districts. We have only one really competitive district, CD-7 which switch from GOP to Democratic by less than 10,000 vote, 180,000 to 172,000. This isn't about to change even with redistricting to the the court ordered majority minority districts. There's usually 3 or 4 districts where there is no challenger from the opposing party due to the results known way before hand.

There's probably no way the democrats get more than 6 of Georgia's 14 congressional delegation as long as it is court mandated to place as many blacks into majority minority districts. Georgia has a 35% black population, that is the exact percentage of black representatives Georgia sends to D.C. Of the remaining mostly white districts, Republicans won 7 of 8 with only 1 not being safe Republican which the democrats ekked out a win last year.

I suppose the bottom line is here in Georgia, we're not going to have more than a couple of competitive districts due to the requirement of majority minority districts which throws most Democratic voters into their districts while leaving the rest with most Republican voters. Since this is court ordered, I don't see it changing with reapportionment and the drawing of new district lines. Here in Georgia, the court must approve the newly drawn districts.
Posted By: Greger Re: Jungle Primaries and Rank Choice Voting - 04/09/21 04:36 PM
I don't imagine there will be any meaningful prosecutions. Mostly because no actual crimes were committed and those are often required before prosecution begins. No one has been charged with any crimes except by a hyperbolic media.

For the most part, Biden will remain popular and could probably win re-election if he wasn't so damned OLD.

That may or may not translate into Democrats keeping the Senate in 2022, and it may or may not mean Harris can be elected in 2024.

If nuthin' don't happen, 2022 is looking like it might not be a disaster for Democrats. I'm pretty sure they'll keep the house. The senate is anybody's game, and Pero will know before the rest of us because he keeps up with the individual races.

MAGA players are hoping for a resurgence of some sort in the future, I don't see it happening in the midterms and I don't see Trump coming back. That might work in the Democrats favor if MAGA nutcase candidates win primaries and get on the ballot against moderate democrats. the fullness of time.
I totally agree Greger. Trump backed candidates may rule the primaries for 2022, but winning in the general election is a total different thing. Independents still haven't changed their minds on how they view Trump. They don't like him and his backed MAGA candidates probably won't do so good. Of course that will all depend on how the new districts are drawn. In safe or likely Republican districts, they'll win. But in competitive districts, it's doubtful in my book. Now this is today and not Nov 2022.

Now I don't have to wait to get the latest scoop on the senate since reapportionment doesn't effect them. 14 Democrats and 20 Republicans are up for reelection in 2022, numbers favor the Democrats. There seems to be just a few competitive races as of today. Georgia if Walker is the nominee could go Republican, Sununu is leading Hassan in the latest NH poll, Two possible GOP pickups. On the other side of the coin, Democrats could pick up North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

The rest look fairly safe. Burr is retiring in NC and Toomey retiring in Pennsylvania. Only 5 contests out of the 34 could switch as things stand today. Way too early for any predictions that mean anything. But I'd keep an eye on those 5 states. That is where changes could and probably will occur.
Posted By: Greger Re: Jungle Primaries and Rank Choice Voting - 04/10/21 04:52 PM we are in agreement again when we're supposed to be having a heated debate....
LOL, When I assess election prospects, I try to do so with clear eyes and an open mind which let numbers, figures do the talking. Looking at election prospects through partisans lens, clouds one's view and mind of what may be really going on.

Even so, all it takes is for one unforeseen event to upset the whole apple cart. I think Trump losing in 2020 was foreseen right after he was elected in 2016 if the Democrats didn't nominate another Hillary Clinton. what was unforeseen was the down ballot gains by the GOP. I'm still trying to figure out how and why there were so many ticket splitters voting for Biden and then Republican down ballot. That usually doesn't happen, it's not normal, What happened hasn't happened in 134 years.

The only thing I can come up with is some Republicans and independent Republican leaners disliked Trump so much they voted for Biden, but stayed loyal to their party's candidates down ballot. If you have a better take, please let me hear it.
Posted By: Greger Re: Jungle Primaries and Rank Choice Voting - 04/11/21 03:12 AM
some Republicans and independent Republican leaners disliked Trump so much they voted for Biden, but stayed loyal to their party's candidates down ballot.

That's exactly what happened. Trump was universally hated.

Socialist democrats in congress are also universally hated.

Republicans thought they had this...they were as certain of victory are Democrats were in 2016.

The dynamics of the whole thing are weird and fluky, I suggest we strike the entire Trump phenomenon from the records.
Originally Posted by Greger
some Republicans and independent Republican leaners disliked Trump so much they voted for Biden, but stayed loyal to their party's candidates down ballot.

That's exactly what happened. Trump was universally hated.

Socialist democrats in congress are also universally hated.

Republicans thought they had this...they were as certain of victory are Democrats were in 2016.

The dynamics of the whole thing are weird and fluky, I suggest we strike the entire Trump phenomenon from the records.
What is this? A love fest? Yeah, I agree that socialist Democrats in congress are equally as hated as Trump was by the majority of Americans as are the congressional leaders of both parties. The exception might be Sanders.

Favorable ratings as of 6 Apr 2021
Biden 51/44 favorable/unfavorable
Pelosi 38/52 favorable/unfavorable
McConnell 19/64 favorable/unfavorable
Schumer 34/55 favorable/unfavorable
Trump 38/56 favorable/unfavorable

Out of that group, Biden is the only one in the positive nationwide. The rest although viewed nationwide as negative, that doesn't make any difference as it is in their own district or state that counts on how they're viewed. Sanders and the socialist Democrats weren't listed in this most recent poll.

Sanders was in the 9 Mar poll along with AOC

Sanders 46/43 favorable/unfavorable
AOC 36/41 favorable/unfavorable

What I've noticed is when the social democrats like AOC, Omar stay quiet and out of the news their favorable's rise and their unfavorable's shrink. The same can be said about these ultra conservatives like Cruz. He isn't liked by America as a whole either.

Cruz 34/50 favorable/unfavorable.

Another one in the America as a whole really doesn't like in the McConnell range is Cuomo, 20/60 favorable unfavorable. But with both Cruz and Cuomo, it isn't how they're liked/disliked by America as a whole, it's only what the folks in their state think about them that's important. Only they can reelected them or send them packing.

I also think it's interesting that Biden has stayed out of the news, lacked media attention and his approval rating remains very high, positive. 55.2 approve, 39.6 disapprove.

Trump on the other hand was in the news and garnered media attention everyday of his presidency and he stayed around 40/55 approval/disapproval for his entire presidency. There seems to be a correlation with the amount of media attention is given one or the lack of in their favorable/unfavorable ratings.
Posted By: logtroll Re: Jungle Primaries and Rank Choice Voting - 04/11/21 01:46 PM
Originally Posted by perotista
I also think it's interesting that Biden has stayed out of the news, lacked media attention and his approval rating remains very high, positive. 55.2 approve, 39.6 disapprove.
It's no wonder the righties are trying to use that as a negative, still screeching about Biden 'hiding in the basement'.

Looks like being quiet is a more productive strategy than unrelenting and dishonest public self-promotion.
That seems to be the case Logtroll. Staying hid in the basement during the campaign was very smart strategy as it kept the election, the campaign focused on Trump and not Biden. The Republicans ranted and raved about Biden's successful basement strategy.

As for Biden's approval rating as president, his first month in office was all about Trump, 6 Jan and Trump's impeachment. No one paid any attention to Biden or his EO's he was signing. They say the first 100 days is a honeymoon for an incoming president. Biden's will probably last longer since his first month in office was all about Trump. Trump continues to jump into the limelight and that also may extend Biden's honeymoon with a majority of Americans.

There's cracks in that honeymoon however with the border crisis. Then Trump comes to the rescue last night taking the media's attention away from the border onto Trump and his remarks about McConnell, his wife and Pence. Good news for the Democrats, as long a the GOP is fractured with the Trumpers set on seeking revenge against Republicans who voted for impeachment and not concentrating on beating the Democrats in 2022, Trump is the best gift the Democrats could have hoped for.
Trump even went so far as to praise Schumer, (falsely) claiming Schumer would have prevented the transfer of power if Trump was a Democrat. That just shows how delusional Trump is.
Speaking of jungle primaries, I hear the only way to defeat Marjorie Green in 2022 is for all the Democrats in her district to vote for the Republican candidate challenging her. It's not like the Democratic candidate could ever win in that very red district, so they might as well use their vote to elect the lessor of two evils. They can also switch back to voting for the Democrat in the general election. No change of registration required in Georgia.
You're correct, we just register to vote here in Georgia. No party registration. One has their choice which primary to vote in. If there's a runoff though, one can vote in the primary for one party, then switch and vote in the other party's runoff.

now that makes sense, Green defeated her Democratic opponent something like 230,000 to 70,000. So there's no defeating her in the general election. Her district is about as safe Republican as a district can get.
We'll have to see what the Justice Department does regarding Green, Merrick Garland can't just ignore the 14th amendment, and Green and her district support is exactly why the 14th amendment was created. After the civil war, they had to let Confederate strongholds send representatives and senators to congress, but any who were set on insurrection were denied ever holding elected office. Green and her supporters fit this amendment perfectly.
I think Green would have to be convicted first. I don't think even the AG can make that decision on his own. There's an old saying, be careful what you wish for. Green might go via the 14th or other conviction, but someone will replace her. That replacement could be better or worse. No one really knows.
Posted By: Greger Re: Jungle Primaries and Rank Choice Voting - 04/14/21 05:51 PM
Green is incompetent, and not likely to be taken seriously for the rest of her term. She has effectively been "canceled".

She was supposed to ride Trump's coattails into the welcoming arms of his second term and the new Republican controlled House of Representatives. She will vote like any other Republican would vote and there's no need to replace her.
Exactly. Whether Green goes or if you're from the right AOC and Omar etc. Nothing is going change. Green gives the Democrats someone to hate and concentrate on while AOC and Omar does the same for the Republicans. Nothing changes in the grand scheme of things or politics if these three are gone or if they stay.

They're a lightning rod for the other party. A bone spur in the butt. But nothing more or less.
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