Capitol Hill Blue
Posted By: Greger 2022 It's not too early... - 05/05/21 03:35 PM
So things are shaping up...Biden has, thus far, been bulletproof, Republicans are fractured and pursuing the past rather than the future, backing a candidate that probably won't run, relying on a shrinking base for their votes, and backing unpopular policies...

We have some re-districting to be done and as it's mostly in the south it will be heavily Gerrymandered to be sure those new seats are Republican.

Normally I would expect the Senate(at least) to flip in 2022 because it's an American tradition to give two years of power to a president and then publicly castrate him for whatever he may have accomplished.

But this time might be different.

Old Joe and the Democrats might be heroes!

If Trump came in like a wrecking ball, Biden came in as the repair man.

And it is my opinion that American voters are going to reward him for it in 2022. Not necessarily with a gain in seats, but at least with minimal losses....I think the House is safe, but without DC statehood the Senate may flip back to Republicans. Perotista will examine all the races and give us the rundown soon. I think the roster favors Democrats slightly.

Florida's former Republican Governor, Charlie Crist, is once again, running for governor as a Democrat. If nominated he will lose.
Posted By: jgw Re: 2022 It's not too early... - 05/05/21 06:35 PM
In 2022 the Democrats are going to face, literally, crazy Trump infested crazy people who don't deal well with reality. Seems to me that should give the Dems some help. My real worry is that the Dems have an unfortunate problem with their messaging as everybody seems to have their own which makes it a bit difficult for voters to know just what the hell they are doing but, again, they won't be alone this time around as the Trump Republicans are, from my view, completely screwed up and no longer actually marching in the same parade either.
Posted By: perotista Re: 2022 It's not too early... - 05/06/21 02:00 AM
I'd be more worried about the House than the senate in 2022. There's 20 Republicans and 14 Democrats up for reelection in 2022. I'd say 3 Democratic seats are at risk. Georgia, New Hampshire and Arizona. Kelly looks good and could win easily. Warnock a slight favorite, Hassan, NH will probably face the current governor Chris Sununu which is well liked. Higher approval ratings than Hassan. Meaning 50-50 or slightly favoring Sununu. NH might be a Republican gain.

Three Republican senators are retiring, Burr, Toomey and Portman. Burr NC and Toomeny Penn retirement makes those seats at least 50-50, perhaps in Penn making the Democrats a slight favorite to pick up that seat. That a possible 2 seat gain for the democrats. Wisconsin may be another gain for the Democrats. Georgia, it all depends on who the Republicans choose as their nominee. If it is Walker, Georgia Bulldog and NFL star who wants to run as a Republican, perhaps making the GOP a slight favorite over Warnock. If someone else, Warnock would be favored.

Portman's retirement in Ohio still leaves that state as a GOP hold in my book. All other seats are solid or safe for the party that holds them.

Bottom line Democrats, 2 at risk with a possible third in Arizona. Republicans, three at risk. So there won't be much of a change. But the odds would favor a 1-2 seat pick up for the democrats. Could be another runoff in Georgia, Warnock vs. Hershel Walker which all depends on the Libertarian candidate who usually gets 2-5% of the vote down here.

The House, who the heck knows until redistricting takes place. The latest generic congressional poll, Democrats 47, Republicans 42. But that is nationally, which means little. It's one district at a time which counts, not nationally. Until the new districts are drawn, any speculation is a waste.
Posted By: Greger Re: 2022 It's not too early... - 05/06/21 03:46 PM
Speculation is never a waste.

Prediction is pointless though.

If things continue along their current path, Biden, and the Democrats will continue to be well liked by all but the most partisan of partisans.

McConnell has announced 100% opposition to ANYTHING proposed by Biden. Cementing the support of the most partisan of partisans. But not really anybody else.

Congressional Republicans continue to put all their eggs in Trump's basket. Making the deposed Trump the defacto President of the Republican States of America.

Americans in general do not have pleasant memories of the Trump years. The more Republican's keep shoving his ugly lying mug in our faces the worse they are going to fare in the future. His social media ban has actually been more a blessing than a curse for them.

And I speculate, that a popular president endorsing policies that poll well with Americans in general...partisans and independents alike...will be rewarded in the midterms with retention of the House.

Obama met his Waterloo in the first two years. Trump was his own Waterloo.

Biden seems to be keeping his eyes on the polls and keeping independents happy. A recipe for success you've pointed out many times.
Posted By: jgw Re: 2022 It's not too early... - 05/06/21 06:09 PM
I am curious - do you ever got https://www.predictit.org/ ? Here are those running, so far, for the house; https://www.predictit.org/markets/1...&sort=traded&sortParameter=TODAY
Posted By: perotista Re: 2022 It's not too early... - 05/06/21 10:15 PM
It's true Biden approval numbers have remain steady since he first took office at around 54-55 through the first part of Many. He is very likeable and behaves like an adult, in the manner most Americans expect a president to act. That is whether or not one likes or dislikes, agrees with or disagrees with. After Trump, that is very refreshing. The question is, can it last?

Obama' approval rating remained constant also through his first the first week of May at around 55%. Bush also at 53%, Bill Clinton at 54%. So a president remaining steady for his first 100 days or so is the norm. The normal ups and downs usually don't begin until the 6-7 month time period.So going by what we see today probably will have nothing to do with the approval rating come July and August. Certainly nothing to do with Nov 2022. By Nov 2010, Obama had fallen to 43%, Bush was at 58% Nov 2002, but he had fallen from his high of 90% right after 9-11. So he really doesn't count due to the effects of 9-11. Bill Clinton had fallen to 41% while Trump was at 40%.

Trump lost 44 seats, Obama 63, Bush gained 8 and Bill Clinton lost 54. The thing is after the first 100 days, with the exception of Trump, all were around 55% approval and things were looking real good for them.

There will be some hard times for Biden to come. I do think because he is very likeable and he followed Trump, he'll be able to handle them without most Americans getting really upset at him.
Posted By: Greger Re: 2022 It's not too early... - 05/06/21 11:23 PM
Quote
In 2022 the Democrats are going to face, literally, crazy Trump infested crazy people who don't deal well with reality. Seems to me that should give the Dems some help.

It depends on whether Republicans are able to demonize Biden in the eyes of the general public. Thus far they are leaving him alone and demonizing Mitt Romney and Liz Cheney.

They are in the act of purging all moderates from the party.

Americans didn't like Trump when he was in office and they don't like him now. I don't think it's going to play well in the midterms.
Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: 2022 It's not too early... - 05/06/21 11:59 PM
I agree with everything stated so far, but here's the rub: gerrymandering and vote rejection.

The Republicans are on a tear destroying democratic institutions in their States and establishing fascist-like one-party election systems, and restructuring the Districts to suit their continued power grab. It is basically clear that they have no agenda, no new ideas, and no fealty to fairness or Constitutional norms. But, they do have majority control of a majority of States and intend to flog that for all it's worth for as long as they can.

Based on the official counts of the 2020 Census, Pennsylvania, New York, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, California, and West Virginia will each lose one seat, Texas will gain two seats, and Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, Oregon, and Montana will each gain one seat. With the exceptions of Oregon and Colorado, this shift will play into the hands of State Republican parties.

Of the States gaining seats, only Colorado and Montana have independent Commissions redrawing Districts. Texas and Florida are one-party States, and North Carolina's legislature does not consult the Governor for redistricting and is solidly Republican. Absent a significant change in either their postures or court edicts, they will definitely finagle Republican gains there.

I think the only thing that might swing 2022 in Biden's favor is continued success. The economy is already rebounding, COVID is fading (except in the South, where its denizens refuse to get vaccinated), but the congressional crunch is about to take place. Infrastructure will pass in some form, because reconciliation is available, but every other initiative will be stymied. What will matter is who is blamed, and who gets credit.
Posted By: jgw Re: 2022 It's not too early... - 05/07/21 05:01 PM
There are a LOT of law suits, right now, going after all the new vote legislation and there is time for them to work thru. THEN we will see what is left. It will also be a great test of the Supremes ability to remain neutral.
Posted By: Greger Re: 2022 It's not too early... - 05/07/21 06:12 PM
Quote
I think the only thing that might swing 2022 in Biden's favor is continued success.

And I'm thinking there is nothing Biden won't be able to handle "successfully".

After four years of Trump's thuggish and ham fisted attempts at governance Two years of Biden gonna seem like a walk in the park.

See if it don't...

The opposition party meanwhile is purging the party of all who do not swear fealty to Donald Trump. Not because it plays well with America at large, but because it fires up the Trumpish base. It's a recipe for disaster at the midterms...as long a Biden doesn't fumble the ball.
Posted By: Greger Re: 2022 It's not too early... - 05/07/21 06:18 PM
Originally Posted by jgw
There are a LOT of law suits, right now, going after all the new vote legislation and there is time for them to work thru. THEN we will see what is left. It will also be a great test of the Supremes ability to remain neutral.

Republicans are at a point where they can only win if they cheat. That doesn't bode well for the future of the party unless they embrace reform.

They will never embrace reform.

They have nothing to offer America except more of Donald Trump.
Posted By: perotista Re: 2022 It's not too early... - 05/08/21 02:59 PM
This is interesting.

GOP Rep. Reveals How Many Colleagues Actually Believe Trump’s Election Conspiracies

https://www.yahoo.com/huffpost/adam-kinzinger-trump-election-conspiracy-092610348.html

I don't know whether to believe Rep. Adam Kinzinger or not. I realize most GOP elected officials know they must win the Trump supporters in the Republican Primaries or go down in flames. Is it fear of losing in the primaries which keep these Republicans spouting the election fraud? Do they really believe it? Perhaps it's self preservation.

But that perservation may only last during the primaries. Not the general election.
Posted By: Greger Re: 2022 It's not too early... - 05/08/21 05:35 PM
Quote
Do they really believe it? Perhaps it's self preservation.

But that preservation may only last during the primaries. Not the general election.

Question to me is...does the Republican Party think America wants to return to the Trump Years?

Or does America want healthcare and better wages?
Posted By: jgw Re: 2022 It's not too early... - 05/08/21 06:12 PM
As far as I can tell the Republicans are turning into the party that lies and nobody who refuses is gotten rid of. This also means that any Republican candidate can be accused as a liar right off the bat! The only question becomes; How many voters are going to vote for a candidate who belongs to a party that lies and insists on all members doing the same?

Oh, the Republicans are constantly thanking Trump for all he has done for them. I really wish they would listed all these kindly things.
Posted By: perotista Re: 2022 It's not too early... - 05/08/21 08:10 PM
How many people would vote for a Republican, according to the latest generic congressional poll, if the midterm election were held today, 47% would vote Democratic, 42% Republican.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

This however is nationally, not district by district which congressional elections are based on. Which means the poll means nothing, but gives you an idea of where things stand today on a national basis. It also shows that 11% of the electorate is undecided.

If you want to compare 2020 to what the generic congressional poll is showing today, on 2 Nov 2020 it was 48% Democratic, 41% Republican, 11% undecided, which ended up nationally, final results 51% Democratic, 48% Republican. But this was a national poll and not district by district, even though the GOP lost the national vote, they picked up a net gain of 14 seats. Even so, the 51% of the 435 congressional members comes out to, 221.85 which in fact the Democrats have exactly 222 seats.

It usually doesn't work this way, one party or the other usually has far more seats that what the national total would suggest. The Democrats received 53% of the national vote in 2018, which out equate to 230 seats, but they had 237.

I think as long as the focus is on Trump being the head of the GOP, the Democrats are in good shape. But if something happens, Trump fades or goes away, then the focus will be on Biden and the democratic controlled congress. As long as independents are satisfied with them, all is good. But if Biden and the Democratic controlled congress makes independents angry at them, watch out. A repeat of a wave election could very well happen. But as long as the focus is on Trump and not the Democrats as it is today, all will be well. The more media attention that is give one, the worst that someone seems to the general public. Not being in the media spotlight is good. The big exception to this rule was the 2016 presidential election where Trump hogged the limelight.
© ReaderRant