Capitol Hill Blue
Posted By: Greger Ousting Liz Cheney Could Backfire on the GOP - 05/21/21 02:11 PM
Ousting Liz Cheney Could Backfire on the GOP

Many Republican voters agree with her. Without them, the party risks disaster.

From Slate...

Two weeks ago, in an interview on Fox News, Sen. Lindsey Graham explained why House Republicans had to purge Rep. Liz Cheney from their leadership. “She’s made a determination that the Republican Party can’t grow with President Trump,” Graham told Sean Hannity. “I’ve determined we can’t grow without him.” Graham framed this as a choice, as though either he or Cheney had to be wrong. But what if they’re both right? What if the GOP, by becoming the Trump party, has trapped itself in a fatal dilemma? Polls suggest that this is precisely what has happened. The GOP can’t afford to alienate its Trumpist base, but it can’t afford to lose anti-Trump Republicans either. By ousting Cheney, the party is risking electoral disaster.

Poll numbers are in the link along with extrapolations of just how badly things could go for Republicans. It's my opinion that the QOP is going to face a perfect storm in 2022. They seem to believe they are destined to win seats in both houses of congress because that is the historic norm, yet they have alienated a fair portion of the electorate by clinging to the failed former president.

Changing demographics and a popular sitting president will work against them as well. If Biden can keep control of congress into the second half of his term he might serve two terms.
I haven't paid much attention to Cheney's ouster. Everyone knew it was coming, it was just a matter of when. Have some or even a lot of the never Trumpers left the GOP. Comparing party affiliation/identification numbers from Nov 2020 to today, the answer would be yes, down from 30% of the electorate to 26%. The thing is none of them has gone over to the Democrats, they're at the same percentage in party affiliation/identification today as they were in Nov 2020, 31%. Those who have left have gone into the independent column. Call them independents lean Republican if you will.

So the question becomes, have they changed their voting habits or will they continue to vote Republican? If the later, nothing has changed, if the former, then the Democrats will benefit.

It's been 6 months since Trump lost, 4 months since 6 Jan 2021. Even though the GOP has dropped 4 points in party affiliation/identification, we see no increase in the Democratic Party column. Only into independents. Is it safe to assume that most of these never Trumpers who departed the Republican Party won't become Democrats? I think so. A traditional conservative isn't about to become a liberal or progressive regardless of Trump or the dislike of Trump. Too huge an ideological divide.

The last question, come the midterms, some 18 months into the future, will their conservative ideology/political philosophy win out or will the dislike of Trump win out causing them or some of them to vote Democratic? I don't have an answer.

Perhaps we won't know the answer until the influence of Trump upon the Republican Party as a whole can be gauged 18 months from now. But I think that the Democratic Party hasn't gained anyone is telling as to what the future many hold. But that future is certainly far from certain. Just my SWAG.
So the question becomes, have they changed their voting habits or will they continue to vote Republican? If the later, nothing has changed, if the former, then the Democrats will benefit.

They will mostly continue to vote Republican just as they did in the 2020 election where Trump lost but the Republican Party made gains. But some few will look at the pro Trump roster at midterms and either sit it out or switch their votes.

A lot of the...uh...lowlife Trumpers will fade back into the woodwork and the stained and tattered couches they emerged from. They had no love of politics before the Trump phenomenon and no ideology beyond racism and bigotry.

And let's not forget Demographics. The oldest Millenials are becoming grandparents now. They are the largest and best educated generation in history. Most are dissatisfied with both parties, 70% would vote for a socialist, many have sided with Bernie Sanders in the last two elections and are probably most registered as independents.

They're sick of the bullsh*t.

You wanna predict the future? Get a handle on how Millennials and the even more liberal Zoomers are gonna vote. Their time is coming.
You know I head this demographic thing going back to the 1960's. Now something happens as folks get older. I have results based on age going back to 1972. 18-29 year olds have voted democratic in every election with the exception of 1984, Reagan's landslide win over Monday and in 1988.

Now 45-64 year olds have voted republican every election since 1972 with the exception of 1992 and 1996 as have those over 64, exceptions were 1992, 1996 and 2000.

I'm not saying this trend will continue. But historically, as one ages the less idealistic they become. Now I'm still waiting to see the changes in demographic and the young effect elections in a way they haven't in the past. Perhaps Trump may be the catalyst to reverse the historical trends? I don't know.

The big change I noticed is those with college degrees which voted Republican until Obama in 2008, went for Romney in 2012 and then for Clinton and Biden. High School or less voted Democratic through 2012, then changed to Trump in 2016 and 2020.

Perhaps we're seeing a change in voting habits, time will tell.
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