Capitol Hill Blue
Posted By: pdx rick Trump's Resentfuls - 05/24/21 10:52 AM
via Walter G. Moss, a professor emeritus of history at Eastern Michigan University

The Trump resentfuls are mostly found in small towns and rural areas, and among older people, non-college graduates, groups once dependent on manufacturing and mining jobs, and social conservatives and white Christians.

Trump’s resentfulls have a sense of displacement in a country they once dominated. Immigrants, minorities, non-Christians, even atheists have taken center stage, forcing them to the margins of American life.

Trump’s resentfuls believe that the big-city elites, the professionals, and the government - before Trump came along - all failed to help them achieve their share of the American Dream. They resent professionals and liberals telling them how to live, calling them racists, or limiting their freedoms - e.g. to buy multiple guns or go about maskless during our present pandemic. "President Trump was at his best when he ignored the experts and went his own way,” resentfuls say.

Many of Trump’s resentful feel they are "being treated unjustly, unfairly, or disrespectfully."

The appearance of Trump and discovery of like-minded people - via the Internet and the person-to-person contacts of smaller towns - help overcome feelings of powerlessness. Feeling more powerful, some "people merely want a remedy for the injustice they have experienced. But others - typically those who experience disrespect - want more than redress; they want revenge.
Posted By: Greger Re: Trump's Resentfuls - 05/24/21 07:28 PM
2022 is shaping up to be another moratorium on Trump. The resentfuls(formerly deplorables) are out for revenge and I hope America slaps them down once again.

But you never Germany the successful nation it is today because they took an unfortunate right hand turn nearly a century ago?

Is that our future? To descend into murderous depravity before rising like a Phoenix from the ashes?
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Trump's Resentfuls - 05/25/21 02:52 AM
Single-minded cult behavior built on resentments and victimization breeds a dangerous fanaticism that invariably leads to all kinds of tragedy. We have a clear historical record to confirm this.

A country, society, culture cannot remain stable when nearly half of its citizens succumb to irrationality.

Posted By: pondering_it_all Re: Trump's Resentfuls - 05/29/21 11:52 PM
"Cancel culture" is the big Trump Party war cry these days. A lot of people outside that Party don't even understand what they are saying! Their idea is that anyone complaining about their bad behavior, is attacking their right to have their own beliefs and political opinions. But have a look at this story:

State Legislator Sics Supporters on Accuser

An Idaho Assemblyman raped an intern. got expelled from the assembly, and his supporters have done everything to attack the intern. Trump Party people are willing to defend a rapist, strictly on partisan grounds. When your actions include defending rapists, spreading lies about the election, insurrection against the United States, supporting politicians who violate their oath to defend the Constitution and defend against enemies foreign and domestic, etc. that's not "an opinion or belief". That's just plain unethical, treasonous, and sometimes criminal behavior.

The people objecting to that are not "attacking your rights", they are choosing to speak out against evil. You can be Conservative without being evil! Look at George Romney, for example. Conservative yes, evil not so much. When Trump Party people stop doing evil things, others will stop criticizing them. You would think Evangelical Christians at least would understand this.
Posted By: Greger Re: Trump's Resentfuls - 05/31/21 02:50 AM
Evangelical Christians at least would understand this.

They are quite accustomed to worshipping an erratic, unpredictable, and vengeful lord and master. They have led the charge against common sense for two millennia.
Posted By: perotista Re: Trump's Resentfuls - 06/06/21 01:50 AM
Did you see this?

"Trump on idea to run for House seat in 2022 in a bid to become Speaker and launch an impeachment inquiry against Biden: 'It's very interesting"

Just when I think the political world can't get any crazier, it does. Let see, if Trump still calls Mar a Lago, Fla home, I think he'd have a hard time winning. Palm Beach County went to Biden 56-43% over Trump. The 21st congressional district where Trump lives went for Biden 58-41. So with redistricting taking place, the Florida legislature would have to draw a Trump friendly district. Which I'm sure is doable.

The senate would also be interesting as that would pit Trump against Rubio in the GOP primary. Now John Q Adams after he lost the presidency to Jackson ran and became a congressman from Massachusetts 1830-1848. So it's been done before.

Also Val Demings, very anti-Trump is gearing up to run against Rubio, pro-Trump. So if Trump runs for the Florida senate, why have a proxy in Rubio when you could have the real thing, Trump?

I seriously doubt any of this will take place.
Posted By: perotista Re: Trump's Resentfuls - 06/06/21 01:23 PM
It's stuff like this that is driving me from a pure swing voter with no leans into a swing voter that is leaning Democratic. This hits home as it is home.

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp booed and Raffensperger censured at state GOP convention

The list goes on, Murkowski, Cheney, Ducey, Burr, Fleck, Cassidy and many more. It's very simple, loyalty to one man has over ridden the party's conservative ideals which has become a thing of the past. ancient history as I'm fond of saying.

I wondered if I was alone or if my new tilt was being felt my many. But according to the numbers, the independents leaners, lean Republican and lean Democratic has remain constant, almost the same since Nov 2020.

Party affiliation for the GOP was at 30%, those who identify themselves as Republicans last Nov 2020, their affiliation dropped to 24% at the end of Jan 2021 and has since risen back to 29%. What happened there was a lot of republicans moved into the independent column and are now returning to their original party affiliation. Democrats on the other hand has risen from 31% last Nov 2020 up to 33% today. So some independents lean Democratic have become down right Democrats. While the GOP is regaining those originally lost due to 1-6. My take anyway for what's it worth.
Posted By: perotista Re: Trump's Resentfuls - 06/06/21 04:59 PM
Here's something I worked up for another site. I would appreciate your opinions. I hope this is the right place for it.

Has Trump changed swing voters/independents voting habits? Let’s look at the numbers for the last 20 years in how swing voters/independents have voted.

2020 independents voted for Democratic Joe Biden by a 54-41 margin over Trump.
2018 independents voted for Democratic congressional candidates 54-42 over Republican congressional candidates.
2016 independents voted for Republican Trump by a 46-42 margin over Hillary Clinton with 12% voting third party against both Trump and Hillary.
2014 independents voted for Republican congressional candidate 54-42 over Democratic congressional candidates.
2012 independents voted for Republican Romney over Democratic Obama 51-48.
2010 independents voted for Republican congressional candidates 54-37 over Democratic congressional candidates.
2008 independents voted for Democratic Obama over Republican McCain 52-44
2006 independents voted for Democratic congressional candidates 57-41 over Republican congressional
2004 independents voted for Democratic Kerry 48-47 over Republican G.W. Bush.
2002 independents voted for Republican congressional candidates 50-46 over Democratic congressional candidates.
2000 independents voted for Republican G.W. Bush by a 48-46 margin over democratic Al Gore.

From 2010 through 2016 it’s easy to see independents voting Republican, sometimes by a lot, 2010, 2014. Other times by a small margin 2012 and 2016. Then going by a huge margin for the Democrats in 2018 and 2020. The Trump factor? You decide.

Pre-2010 independents were fairly split in 2000, 2002 and 2004, then going big for democratic congressional candidates in 2006 and for Obama in 2008. Then the big switch from Democratic to Republican for 2010 which lasted 4 election cycles until 2018.

What do you think? Was Trump responsible for the big switch after 4 election cycles from Republican to going huge for the Democrats in 2018 and 2020?
Posted By: Greger Re: Trump's Resentfuls - 06/06/21 05:38 PM
Was Trump responsible for the big switch after 4 election cycles from Republican to going huge for the Democrats in 2018 and 2020?

Most likely. He was definitely responsible for most of the political turmoil between 2016 and 2020, he sucked the air from every issue and made it about himself. Just like your average republican.

You maintain that a single slogan, not uttered by a single democrat was responsible for a loss of 13 seats in congress, yet Nazi symbols, Confederate flags, violent insurrections, racism, bigotry and myscogyny never effected the outcome of any of their elections.

Yet any Democrat who voices any dissent needs to shut up and let the real Democrats handle everything?

The non voting public seems to hear only bad things about Dems while discounting all republican foibles as lone wolf or false flag operations.

But something got them off the couch and it wasn't the bold stand Democrats made while Trump was in office. They sat back and did nothing...

Republicans never had to fight against the filibuster because Democrats laid down like PIA thinks Palestinians should lay down. Democrats are done for the next two years because everything will run up against the filibuster and they haven't got the balls to get rid of it.

Because they answer to the same master.
Posted By: perotista Re: Trump's Resentfuls - 06/07/21 03:10 AM
It seems pretty unanimous about the 13 seat loss, from exit polls to democratic strategist, to political pundits and the Democratic panel who did their after action reports. Even democratic leadership admit it.

As for what you raised about the GOP, I think you seen the results in how independents voted. They left the GOP, not voting for GOP candidates in 2018 and not voting for Trump in 2020.

Somehow though, there were a lot of these folks who voted Biden, against Trump and then GOP down ballot. How does a group of voters vote 54-41 for Biden, yet vote only 50-48 for Democratic congressional candidates? There has to be a reason or reasons.

It's possible what you stated stuck to Trump and when it came to congressional candidates, doing away with the police over rode that. At least in those 13 races. But not all others. For something to stick, it has to be plausible. Tagging Trump as a racist worked among independents, tagging democratic congressional candidates as wanting to do away with the police, defund the police worked on some. Where it wasn't plausible, it didn't work.

But what left pundits and political strategist scratching their heads is how can Biden win an election by 7 plus votes and yet lose house seats. This was the first time something like that happened since 1884. 1884 was the only other time. Something was at work to cause that. The dislike for Trump was hot and heavy by independents. But not so much for Republicans congressional candidates. The dislike of Trump didn't reach that far down. But something had to cause that, the not reach.

The best any of us, those who forecast and ended up with egg on their face when the democrats lost house seats is Defund the police. That became the number issue in many voters mind when it came to their vote for congress. But not for president.

I suppose we all are still trying to figure out the reason why. Defund the police is a consensus reason from both sides of the aisle. But it could be the dislike of Trump which drove folks to the polls just didn't register down ballot.

It could be the districts themselves. National polls, they don't mean much when the election is district by district.

One other thing here. I'm not trying to help Republicans win elections. If I was I would be giving my advice to them and not to Democrats. I'd be telling Republicans what to change, what not to say, how to attract the independent voter, not telling democrats that.

But that's okay, the base of any party doesn't want to hear why they lost.
Posted By: Greger Re: Trump's Resentfuls - 06/07/21 04:26 PM
I aint exactly part of the democratic base.

But I still maintain that many quietly voted for Biden and for Republicans down ballot. That explains it handily. It's either that or the election really was rigged and Trump is our rightful ruler.

Campaign rhetoric is the most ignored speech presented by the media. Slogans, claims and counterclaims, bloviation and name calling, socialists and fascists and racists and sexual harrassment allegations.

Defund the Police was only one of many of hundreds of things that churned through the endless news feed.

The one overarching issue in 2020 was Donald Trump. Everything else was fluff.

2020 was a moratorium on Donald trump. Donald Trump is the answer to any mysteries surrounding that election. From his own election down to the village dog catcher it was all about Trump.
Posted By: pondering_it_all Re: Trump's Resentfuls - 06/08/21 12:16 AM
Trump lost because he pissed off enough people. But the incumbent Republican congressmen did not. Up until the election, those guys were mostly just what you would expect of Republicans. It's only after Trump lost that so many of them went batsh#t crazy. If the election happened again on January 20th, I bet very few of Trump's defenders would have been reelected. In the few special elections since January 6th, Democrats seem to have a huge advantage. It will be interesting to see who gets indicted and if voters remember such behavior in 2022.
Posted By: perotista Re: Trump's Resentfuls - 06/08/21 12:24 AM
I agree that Trump was the over riding issue. I don't however looking at the total results think it was about Trump all the way down to dog catcher. Nationally it certainly was. Biden received 51.4% of the total vote to Trump's 46.9%, almost identical to his 2016 total of 46.1%. In 2016 we had 6% of the electorate vote third party, the whole electorate, not just independents. In 2020 was was cut to 1.7%. Almost all off those who voted third party against both Trump and Clinton in 2016 went to Biden in 2020. This much is clear.

Then as you stated, a lot of them who voted for Biden to get rid of Trump ended up voting Republican down ballot. Whereas Trump received 46.9% of the total vote, Republican congressional candidates 48.0%, Republican senators 51.4% not counting the Georgia runoffs which took place in January, in the governor races Republicans received 52.4%. I don't have any figures on state legislatures, but the GOP did pick up 2.

Trump was the low man on the totem pole. That should tell the Republican Party something, they must be blind as a bat or worse for not seeing this. I never gave the total results much of a thought, although I knew them. It seems the anti-Trump vote was big at the presidential level. But not as big, less of a factor as one went down ballot as the Republican share of the vote increased.

This has me wondering if I may have to re-calibrate my model for the midterms. That the Trump factor may not be as big as I originally believed. I'll have to do some heavy contemplating on that.

There is the 6% who voted third party in 2016 which fell to 1.7% in 2020. which means 3.5 of that 6% went to Biden, 0,8 to Trump with the remaining 1.7 voting third party.

Perhaps it's something as simple as some folks not liking Trump, but still adhered to the republican philosophy, hence their vote for Biden, then voting GOP down ballot. maybe I'm making this way too complicated for my own good.
Posted By: perotista Re: Trump's Resentfuls - 06/08/21 01:24 PM
Trump may have just switched North Carolina's 2022 senate race from toss up to lean or perhaps even likely Democratic with his endorsement of a candidate in the GOP primary that can't win statewide.

From the Article: Donald Trump just threw NC’s U.S. Senate race into chaos. Democrats should be delighted

But, for good measure, he made news in a Trumpian way by walking into the event and effectively flipping over the political tables of his North Carolina Republican hosts. Trump created chaos in the Republican race for the 2022 U.S. Senate nomination by using the occasion to endorse the candidacy of U.S. Rep. Ted Budd, arguably the least likely of the top three GOP Senate candidates to be able to win a statewide race.

Trump, the gift that just keeps on giving for the Democrats.

North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are three states currently that have Republican senators that look very switchable. With Toomey's retirement in Pennsylvania that state is lean Democratic, Burr is retiring in North Carolina which made NC a tossup. But if the GOP nominates Budd, NC becomes either lean or likely Democratic. Wisconsin even with Johnson running for reelection, is a lean Democratic race.

In NH, Democrat Hassan is safe unless challenged by Republican Gov. Sununu which would make that race a tossup. Georgia, leans Democratic with Warnock, but if Herschel Walker enters the race as Trump has been pushing him, Georgia then goes from lean Democratic to lean Republican. All the other senate races are safe for which party that holds them at this time.
Posted By: Greger Re: Trump's Resentfuls - 06/08/21 03:54 PM
Perhaps it's something as simple as some folks not liking Trump, but still adhered to the republican philosophy

Occam's Razor is a useful tool when you want to eliminate some pointless speculation. A lot of Republicans still adhere to the Republican philosophy...Donald Trump does not.

A womanizer, a draft dodger, a former Democrat, an autocrat, a bully, and an all 'round jerk.

They fielded a horrible candidate in 2016 then won on a fluke. He was a lousy president who sowed division withe very word he spoke or tweeted, he endorsed violence against his political enemies and even within his own party.

I'm not sure why it surprises you that some Republicans didn't vote for him...
Posted By: Greger Re: Trump's Resentfuls - 06/08/21 04:12 PM
Elections are about turnout.
In the end everyone who turned out to vote at all came to vote for or against Trump.
They also checked the boxes on the down ballot candidates. But that aint why they were there.

America was sick of Trump.

Democrats, independents AND Republicans.
Posted By: perotista Re: Trump's Resentfuls - 06/14/21 04:04 PM
According to CNN exit polls 94% of Republicans voted for Trump, 6% for Biden. Republicans made up 35% of those who turned out to vote. 94% of democrats voted for Biden, 5% for Trump, 1% third party, Democrats made up 37% of those who actually turned out to vote. In 2020 both major parties voted for their candidates 2 points higher than the historical average of 92%. Outside of the higher voter turnout for the Democrats, the percentages were almost identical when it came to voting for their presidential candidates.

And yes, 2020 was all about Trump. He was the driving force.

Down ballot, congressional, 95% of both Republicans and Democrats who turnout to vote voted for their party's congressional candidates.

Which brings me to the big difference between presidential and down ballot congressional. Independents, swing voters. They made up 25% of all those who turnout to vote. They went for Biden 54-41 with 5% voting third party. However, down ballot, these swing voters did go for the Democratic congressional candidates, but by a much lower 50-48 margin. Which I equate to the Republicans being able to pick up 13 house seats last year.

Republican congressional candidates did 7 points better among independents, swing voters than Trump did. Probably showing their dislike of Trump, but not necessarily the Republican Party. Or perhaps it was their distrust of the congressional democrats that resulted in those independents who voted for Biden, voting Republican down ballot. Or perhaps both or perhaps dumb slogans like Defund the Police. I just had to throw that in there.

I'd say Biden was pretty much immune to that, he benefited from not being Trump. From looking at Biden's overall job approval, I'd say he's still benefiting from not being Trump.
Posted By: Greger Re: Trump's Resentfuls - 06/16/21 04:37 PM
You should find it surprising that 6% of Republican registered voters voted for Biden. We can only guess how many held their noses and voted for Trump anyway.

The majority of them were befuddled by the lies.

The only poll that counts says America was sick of Trump.

Republicans made up 35% of those who turned out to vote...
Democrats made up 37% of those who turned out to vote.

As I said, it's all about turnout. Turn those numbers around and it woulda went the other way.

Independents also came out in slightly higher numbers for Biden.,,
Posted By: perotista Re: Trump's Resentfuls - 06/16/21 05:17 PM
That's been pretty much the historical average. 6% of one party voting for the other party's presidential candidate. 92% of Republicans and Democrats, both parties historically vote for their party's presidential candidates.

We had 94% of both Republicans and Democrats vote for their candidates in 2020.
2016 was a bit off skelter as 89% of Democrats voted for Clinton, 88% of Republicans for Trump. 8% of both parties voted for the other party's candidate
2012 it was 93% of Republicans voting for Romney, 92% of Democrats voting for Obama
2008 it was 89% of democrats voting for Obama and 90% of Republicans for McCain.

You can take that way back, but 92% is the average. That is if you don't count 1992 and 1996 as Perot threw those numbers out the window.

So political party wise, 2020 was pretty average when it came to how the members of the two parties vote. The major difference was independents going for Biden 54-41 when they had gone for Trump in 2016 46-42 with 12% voting third party against both major party candidates. That's a 17 point swing, from a plus 4 to a minus 13 for Trump in back to back presidential election years.

staying with independents, we had a 12 point swing from 1996 to 2000 from democrat/Bill Clinton to Republican/G.W. Bush. but all of that pales to the 28 point swing from 1988 to 1992 from plus 14 points republican/Bush to minus 14 points republican or a plus 14 for Bill Clinton.

One never knows how independents will come down or how many will switch. The two major parties are steady as a rock, independents are all over the place. Even during the midterms independents fluctuate wildly. From independents voting 57-39 for Democratic congressional candidate in 2006 to independents voting 56-37 for Republican congressional candidates in 2010. That's going from a plus 18 for Democrats, 2006 to a minus 19 for Democrats in 2010. A swing of 37 points in a four year period.
Posted By: Greger Re: Trump's Resentfuls - 06/16/21 07:27 PM
So political party wise, 2020 was pretty average when it came to how the members of the two parties vote.

Pretty average...but a lot can happen within just a couple of percentage points.

A couple here, a couple there, and pretty soon the race is lost.

I don't deny that independents took Biden over the was the anti-Trump sentiment that won out though...not excitement to elect Biden.

Independents broke for Biden by 12%...(?)

Sort of represents Americans without partisan preferences. Says to me that if political parties didn't exist, then Trump would've lost by 12% across the board.

About what you'd actually expect......
Posted By: perotista Re: Trump's Resentfuls - 06/16/21 07:51 PM
I agree, Biden wasn't Trump and that was enough. At least for independents, swing voters. What you're missing is those independent voters who voted their dislike for 3rd party candidate mainly because they didn't want either major party candidate to win. Voted against both major party candidates for a third party candidate to show their disdain for both.

Nothing will top 2016. Trump won independents 46-42 over Hillary Clinton with 12% of independents voting against both major party candidates. In other words you had 54% of independents voting against Trump, 58% voting against Clinton using your idea or method.

2020 you had 5% of independents vote against both Biden and Trump, so 59% of all swing voters voted against Trump while 46% of independents voted against Biden.
Posted By: pondering_it_all Re: Trump's Resentfuls - 06/17/21 12:45 AM
Perhaps it's something as simple as some folks not liking Trump, but still adhered to the republican philosophy, hence their vote for Biden, then voting GOP down ballot.

That can't be it, because essentially there IS no Republican philosophy any more. What? They trust Putin over US Intelligence agencies? Think the US should forego democracy? Even if they were traditional Republicans, the Trump Party candidates they voted for are not traditional Republicans any more!

They just have not figured that out yet. Their votes were mostly habit and momentum.
Posted By: perotista Re: Trump's Resentfuls - 06/17/21 12:44 PM
Whatever was the reason for their vote, their ticket splitting, voting for Biden, then voting Republican down ballot. It sure stood out.

Trump was low man on the totem as far as getting votes percentage wise. Republican congressional candidates, Republican senate candidates, Republican governor candidates, Republican state legislature candidates, Republican anything besides president received a higher percentage of the vote than Trump.

Sometimes the difference was very stark. Trump received 46.9% of the total vote. Republican senate candidates 50.4%, Republican governors 52.4%

The dislike of Trump certainly drove the presidential election, but down ballot the GOP picked up 13 house seats, 1 governor, 2 state legislatures and 152 state legislature seats all the while Trump was losing by 7 million plus votes.

There seems to be a disconnect between the president elections and the down ballot elections. Different forces driving them which I haven't figured out. Habit, momentum, perhaps. It could be the dislike of Trump over rode their dislike of Democratic policies at the presidential level, but not down ballot. The distrust and dislike of the Democrats was too much for them to vote for Democratic candidates if the Democratic candidate wasn't named Trump. Who knows? Your explanation and thoughts are as good as mine.

The only thing I found from pundits and both parties to explain it was the Defund the Police slogan which both parties accepted. for the democrats down ballot loses. Is it true? Independent political analysts and both parties strategists accept it. The polls seem to back that up.
Posted By: Greger Re: Trump's Resentfuls - 06/17/21 04:00 PM
They just have not figured that out yet. Their votes were mostly habit and momentum.

Once Trump is gone from the picture Republicans are going to have to sell actual policy to voters. Since they have no actual policy beyond Trump, it isn't going to go well.
Posted By: Greger Re: Trump's Resentfuls - 06/17/21 04:12 PM
Even I didn't support "defund the police".

You might as well say it was the socializms...

Nobody supports that either.

Keeps coming back to this and I keep telling you that it was right wing propaganda, not actual democratic support of these things.

It was lies.

Republican lies cost seats for the Democrats, NOT Democratic support of extremist slogans.
Posted By: perotista Re: Trump's Resentfuls - 06/18/21 12:36 AM
I could be wrong, but for a lie to stick, there has to be some appearance of truth to it. You had some democratic mayors jump on the defund bandwagon. At least 13 cities with democratic mayors have cut funds for the police. That number has risen to over 20.

With that in the news, even if the Democratic Party itself, if most Democrats didn't support defund, it's easy to see and understand why those who pay little attention if any at all to politics would come to believe its the whole Democratic Party that wants to defund the police.

When it comes to these coach potatoes, at least political wise, they'll base their votes on their own perspective of the situation. Do mayors and their cuts represent any congress critters and their stances? when these swing voters hear that New York City.
Washington, D.C.,Baltimore, Philadelphia, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Atlanta, Minneapolis etc..all with democratic mayors have cut funding for the police, it isn't much a leap to think electing a democrat to congress would doom their own local police force.

It's not like these swing voters will research anything, they'll hear something on TV and run with it. They're not political, but they don't want their local police tampered with.

In our modern era of politics, politics is a propaganda game. Propaganda doesn't have to be the absolute truth, it just has to be a bit truthful and a whole bunch of lies to stick. It has to be believable. With 20 democratic mayors cutting funding to their police, it was believable. At least to swing voters.
Posted By: Greger Re: Trump's Resentfuls - 06/19/21 12:33 AM
Last time you told me it was congress people screaming about defunding the police...but you couldn't find any examples.

Now you're claiming 20 Democratic Mayors actually began defunding their police departments...

List of cities please...?

I watch politics carefully, and I never really saw much mention of defunding the police. Neither the truth about it nor the lies...

But then I don't watch FOX News. Where independents go to get the TRUTH.
Posted By: perotista Re: Trump's Resentfuls - 06/19/21 12:35 PM

There's a bunch more. But you're missing the point. Defund or doing away with the police departments doesn't have to be true. It just has to leave the perspective that is what is happening in the voters mind.

When someone, swing voters, hear something, they're not going to do any research for the most part. If it sounds true, if it sounds plausible, they'll run with it.

I've been studying independents, swing voters, the non-affiliated very closely since 1992 working hard for Perot. We knew we wouldn't get many Republicans or democrats to vote for him. So we had to get the majority of independents at that time. We had to draft a message that appealed to them, that addressed their wants, their wishes and yes, their fears.

Even dropping out for a spell, Perot drew 30% of the independents vote, 17% of the Republican vote and 13% of the democratic voters. Total 19% of the electorate.

There are certain words that catch a voters attention. Use those words in the right way, in a way that makes your candidate look good while making the other candidates look like they're for something that isn't popular, you get ahead in the political and election game. The word or slogan doesn't have to be 100% true. But true enough for those who don't research into the full statement, context of the statement, etc. it is believable to them.

I'm dealing with PERSPECTIVES of the voters, swing voters in particular. Not facts, not absolute truth, but perspectives that if molded right win elections. This you don't understand. You understand defund the police didn't mean what it says. I do too. But that is irrelevant to what this mass of non-affiliated, swing voters, independents, coach potatoes, those who don't follow politics on a daily basis, probably not even on a weekly or monthly basis. Just when an election nears, they'll go with what sound plausible, possible, not what is.

So an election strategist will see a poll that says only 19% of all Americans support defund the police, 60% oppose it. They'll see another that says 50% support making reforms to the way police do their business, 45% don't. It's a no brainier to use defund the police to tar your opponent instead of reform. In that instant Democratic candidates came out in support of the slogan defund the police, meaning reform, but saying defund. Words mean things, to a lot of these coach potato voters, defund means defund, reform means reform. It's quite simple. Especially when one knows there'll be no research done, just taking what is said and run with it.

I don't think you understand how that works. You know defund the police didn't mean doing away with the police. But you're a political junkie. Independents aren't, they're more interested if the Braves won last night, who won American Idol, taking care of family, making ends meet etc. they're even thinking about politics. But these people vote and if you can mold their perspectives, you can get their vote.

As a political strategist trying to win elections, I'm not worried about you, I'm not going to try to make the base of either party change their minds and vote for my candidate. That is a total waste of time. But I'm going after the swing voter, the couch potato, the non-affiliated, those who don't pay much if any attention to politics at all. I can convince them that defund means defund, I can't convince you. But you are irrelevant to my campaign strategy anyway. You aren't targeted. Swing voters are. I say defund to them, they see these democratic mayors cutting police funds, it then makes it very easy for a political strategist to make them believe the democrats want to do away with the police. There's a grain of truth there, not the whole truth, maybe not even 10% or 20%, but enough to bend their perspective into believing it.

Way too long winded. Why do myths last and last, mainly because there's a grain of truth somewhere in them. Maybe just one grain in a beach full of sand, but that grain lasts and lasts. Whatever a strategist uses, it has to have enough truth behind it to be believable to the targeted voter. The rest of all the voters are totally irrelevant. You don't care one iota about them.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Trump's Resentfuls - 06/19/21 06:39 PM
Originally Posted by perotista
...Defund or doing away with the police departments doesn't have to be true. It just has to leave the perspective that is what is happening in the voters mind.
...and who put the perception into people's mind that "defunding the police" literally means cancelling police department by not funding them?

Posted By: Greger Re: Trump's Resentfuls - 06/20/21 03:32 PM
Marketing has become an exact science these days. Ever watched sheepdogs at work...? The billionaire class owns and controls the media and they know exactly what buttons to push to get the best results.

It's rigged alright. And neither pack of dogs has our best interests at heart.
Posted By: perotista Re: Trump's Resentfuls - 06/20/21 05:33 PM
The old adage of follow the money. Since 1960 the presidential candidate with the most money won with two exceptions. 1964 where Goldwater outspent LBJ 20-18 million and in 2016 when Hillary outspent Trump 1.191 billion to 646.8 million.

14 billion was spent on 2020 elections, not counting the two Georgia runoffs in January 2021.

We voters are just a necessary evil in this political game, pawns to be moved around the chess board. These moneyed elites are very good at making us think we decide elections, we have a say, that we can make a difference. Baloney,

I know the moneyed elites control our election process and usually the outcomes. But I like everyone else continue to operate like I don't.
Posted By: pondering_it_all Re: Trump's Resentfuls - 06/20/21 10:19 PM
Trump's spending was not an indication of the amount he would have spent if he actually ever paid his bills. He probably contracted for a lot more than Hilary, and then just stiffed a lot of people, companies, and local governments. He's supposed to go visit the border wall in El Paso, but El Paso wants their goddamned money from one of his previous rallies.
Posted By: Greger Re: Trump's Resentfuls - 06/22/21 05:05 PM
I know the moneyed elites control our election process and usually the outcomes. But I like everyone else continue to operate like I don't.

Bernie Sanders almost broke the glass ceiling. An independent, a non-partisan; a swing voter, if you will. A candidate who was an American first and A Democrat in name only.

America made its choice.


Old "status quo Joe"
Posted By: perotista Re: Trump's Resentfuls - 06/22/21 05:49 PM
A Democrat in name only that voted for the democratic party line more than any other democratic senator except one. I would say Sanders is an independent in name only, he even caucuses with the democrats. Caucusing with one or the other party eliminates the independent status. Sanders has chosen a side as has King.

Both Sanders and King are counted as democrats in most reports, which is why it is reported you have a 50-50 senate, 50 republicans, 50 democrats. Not 50-48-2.

Of course it's all semantics anyway.
Posted By: jgw Re: Trump's Resentfuls - 06/22/21 05:50 PM
Yep, they chose the Democrat over the Socialist. Bernie, basically, lost because he insisted on being a Socialist instead of running as a Socialist in the American Socialist party! (which is NOT the Socialist party) The Democratic party is loaded with a bunch of Socialists who insist on using that title whilst running in the Democratic party. They are, basically, destroying the Democratic party rather than joining the American Socialist party.

This one just makes to no sense to me!
Posted By: perotista Re: Trump's Resentfuls - 06/22/21 09:38 PM
It's perfectly understandable and makes all the sense in the world. Americans would never elect a socialist. At least not in the near future. Now they will elect Republicans and Democrats. If you're a socialist, running as a socialist, only 45% of all Americans would consider voting for you. That means 55% wouldn't under any circumstances. Of that 45% who would consider voting for a socialist, the key word is consider, that doesn't mean they would.

Then under our two party system, it is designed not to give any other party outside of republicans and democrats a chance of winning. Republicans and Democrats write our election laws and they do so as a mutual protection act. If there's one thing each major party agrees on, it's no viable third party will ever rise to challenge them.

A socialist running as a democrat is a no brainier. As far as I can tell, see, find is that the socialist party made it onto just one state ballot for 2020, New Mexico. You're not going to win the presidency being on only one state ballot. Democrats are on all 50 states and D.C. as are Republicans. Democrats and Republicans are automatically ballot qualified in all 50 states. Every other third party has to jump through a million and one hoops just to get on the ballot.
Posted By: Greger Re: Trump's Resentfuls - 06/22/21 11:43 PM
Yes, it's easy to dismiss the non partisan, independent, American before partisan candidates as nothing but IINOs...

Don't be sayin' you wish things would change when you keep voting for the same people.

At least the conservatives took a shot at the moon and elected Trump.

You chose Biden. A mediocre old politician with his feet planted firmly in the past and his eye on yesterday. I hear he's slipped in the polls among democrats but has risen among republicans.

Bernie represented change. America isn't ready yet, but it will be soon.

Biden's Waterloo might be the drought out west. We might be seeing the beginnings of another dust bowl....
Posted By: perotista Re: Trump's Resentfuls - 06/23/21 01:54 AM
I'd put inflation on top of drought. Maybe even the border. Actually Biden has an overall job performance approval rating of 52% as of 21 June. He's been between 52-55% ever since inauguration day.

which is unusual to have a range that small for that length of time. Democrats give Biden a 95% approval rating with a range of 92-98. The 98% was 30 Jan, 10 days into his presidency. Republicans give Biden an 11% approval with a range between 8-12%. that 12% happened back on 21 Apr, the 8% on 18 May. So Biden has improved his rating from Republicans from 8 to 11% since May. Independents as of 21 June give Biden a 55% overall approval rating. They ranged from 50-61%. It is my view Biden is still benefiting from not being Trump and still is in the honeymoon phase with independents.

I have no regrets of choosing Biden over Trump. I suppose I could have voted for Johnson as I did in both 2012 and 2016. But the goal was to get rid of Trump, mission accomplished.

For me, the overall job approval rating doesn't mean much until we get within a month or two of an election. The usual rule of thumb is if a president has an approval rating of above 50% come election time, his party does well, below 50%, his party loses seats, sometimes a huge amount of seats.

Midterm results and approval ratings

2018 Trump had an approval of 38% and his party lost 44 seats.
2014 Obama had an approval of 42% and his party lost 12 house seats and control of the senate losing 9 seats.
2010 Obama had an approval rating of 44% and his party lost 63 house seats
2006 Bush had an approval of 38% and his party lost 33 house seats and 6 senate seats giving the Democrats control of both the house and the senate.
2002 Bush had an approval rating of 65% and his party gained 8 seats

and so it goes. Approval rating within a month of an election is always a good indication of how that election will go.
Posted By: Greger Re: Trump's Resentfuls - 06/23/21 01:36 PM
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.

And yet when one comes along you find every excuse not to vote for him.

I have no regrets about choosing Biden over Trump.
Of course not, I was talking about the primaries! When you found the non partisan to be far too radical because he might have made some changes...the very changes you want to have made. But he's not a partisan and unworthy of your vote.

If it had been Bernie you'd have likely swung to Trump because at least he isn't a socialist.

By the way, Buffalo is poised to elect a socialist mayor.
Posted By: perotista Re: Trump's Resentfuls - 06/23/21 02:23 PM
What Buffalo does, Buffalo does. Since I can't vote in Buffalo, who they elect is totally and 100% up to them. If they like a socialist, I'm fine with that. I think each city and state ought to be left alone to vote for whoever they want with no, absolutely no outside interference. This also goes to the tons of money that pour into states from out of state.

My reference is those party animals who put their party first and high above the country. Where the R and or the D is much more important than the big A, America. Sanders is right in there with the other D's. He's no independent, all one has to do is look at his voting record and which party he ran in for the presidency. I'd expect an independent, well to be independent of both major parties, not caucusing with one, not voting one party's party line all the time. Yes, independent in name only certainly applies to Sanders. Under his unassuming mantle of independent, he's just another die hard progressive Democrat.

There's a certain ideological compatibility within all of us when it comes to voting. I'm certainly not a progressive and neither am I a far right conservative. Although I'll support some of the progressive's agenda and some of the conservative agenda depending on what that agenda is and if I think that part of their agenda helps.

I can call myself anything I want, but my actions and deeds will determine what I actually am.

Since here in Georgia we just register to vote, no party registration, I can pick and choose which primary to vote in. The only stipulation is that if there is a runoff, I can't vote in that runoff if the runoff is of the other party I didn't choose to vote in. The runoff must be in the party or primary I originally voted it.

And yes, I voted for Biden in the Democratic Georgia Primary. He seemed like the best candidate to defeat Trump which in fact he did. Look at the numbers, Trump would have beaten Sanders, probably fairly easily. Probably we had a matter of different priorities and goals. My goal was to get rid of Trump, yours may have been to get the Sanders the nomination. The numbers showed Biden was the best Democratic Candidate to do that at the time of the Georgia democratic primary.
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