Capitol Hill Blue
Posted By: logtroll The Disintegration of Trumpism - 06/23/21 01:07 PM
It's happening, though a bit more slowly than I had fantasized. By the time of Former's failed reinstatement, I predict he and his MAGA Movement will have almost completely devolved into Blithering Idiocy (as compared to the Bloviating Idiocy of its heyday). Another Faded Fad. A Retarded Revolution.

A cancer in temporary remission...

Whither Jared and Daddy's Favorite??
Posted By: rporter314 Re: The Disintegration of Trumpism - 06/23/21 04:43 PM
sorry but I have to disagree.

Trumpism is here to stay. While I agree it has devolved into "Blithering Idiocy", that does not imply it will disappear. It has simply morphed into a more noxious version. Elected Republicans fear of THE BASE is the criteria for which we should gauge status. Refusal to codify voting standards is but one example of how Trumpism has continued to poison society.

How about Gov De Santis passing a bill which forces state supported schools to survey student teacher political views. I have only one answer for Mr De Santis .... GFY

I predict a disintegration curve which rate of change is predicated on mortality of THE BASE.
Posted By: logtroll Re: The Disintegration of Trumpism - 06/23/21 08:51 PM
Originally Posted by rporter314
I predict a disintegration curve which rate of change is predicated on mortality of THE BASE.
Well, you can disagree with me, but I might draw the line at being insurrected!

As for THE BASE...

Posted By: pondering_it_all Re: The Disintegration of Trumpism - 06/24/21 04:20 AM
My wife LOVES Post Modern Jukebox. They perform a whole lot of songs really well. Highly recommended.

But back on topic: As I predicted, this is all right on schedule. The insurrectionists are starting to plead guilty and apologize. Next comes Gaetz's indictment. All the conservative media outlets have turned him down for employment after he gets kicked out of congress. But he won't be the last. Garland has to clean house at DOJ a bit, but they are looking at members of congress who helped the insurrectionists. They are next. The Manhattan and New York prosecution of Trump and his company are coming along. Expect indictments soon. I don't know what's happening in Georgia, but I think the only thing that could save Trump there would be Kemp pardoning him, but of course that might get Kemp prosecuted as a co-conspirator. Prosecution for all those Obstruction of Justice charges are going to come soon, or the Statute of Limitations will make that impossible. Then Garland looks incompetent.
Posted By: logtroll Re: The Disintegration of Trumpism - 06/24/21 02:24 PM
Originally Posted by rporter314
Trumpism is here to stay. While I agree it has devolved into "Blithering Idiocy", that does not imply it will disappear. It has simply morphed into a more noxious version. Elected Republicans fear of THE BASE is the criteria for which we should gauge status. Refusal to codify voting standards is but one example of how Trumpism has continued to poison society.
I agree that there has been a large shift in the chutzpah being shown by THE BASE, but I'm not ready to give Trump credit for establishing anything that could be called "Trumpism" that has an identity post Il Douche's time on the stage. Former was merely one of the particles that serve as a coalescing factor, much like dust gives atmospheric moisture a nucleus for the formation of a rain drop. (Actual, new evidence is claiming that those nuclei are more likely bacteria, or some microbe...).

My conjecture is that without Former as an organizing factor for THE BASE vapor, the raindrop will evaporate from around him. The vapor is still there, but it is desperately seeking other pieces of dirt and detritus to attract them to becoming bona fide drips. (I was going to say "organize around", but the concept of organization is hard to reconcile with the reality of chaos.)
Posted By: pondering_it_all Re: The Disintegration of Trumpism - 06/24/21 06:54 PM
Rudy had his New York law license "suspended pending further action" today. Mostly for being a lying sack of crap in various courts. Judges really don't like that. When litigants lie under oath, they can be charged with perjury. When lawyers lie to judges it threatens the entire judicial system.

I see that Speaker Pelosi has announced a House Select Committee to investigate the January 6th insurrection. Senate Republicans had their chance at an independent commission with bipartisan appointments, but they flushed that down McConnell's crapper. Now they have to deal with a House committee lead by a Democrat with all the investigative powers (IE. subpoenas, sworn testimony) as the commission would have had. Talk about the ostrich with it's head buried in the sand! They would have had some control over the commission. They will have none over this committee.
Posted By: jgw Re: The Disintegration of Trumpism - 06/25/21 05:20 PM
I think that Biden screwed the pooch on this one and it really doesn't make much sense. I guess he didn't want to offend the other side which is, I guess very sensitive and he cares about such as they are doing an excellent job stretching it all to the point of utter failure.
Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: The Disintegration of Trumpism - 06/27/21 01:06 PM
Trumpism has no organizing principle beyond resentment politics. That zeitgeist will remain and influence the introduction of more resentment policies, but I do believe the "movement" has passed its zenith. It will, however, remain a dangerous toxin in the body politic (after all, we still have the "freedom caustic" and Marjorie Taylor Nutcase). Moreover, much as I fervently wish its demise, the GOP will remain the GQP for the foreseeable future and geographically significant.
Posted By: perotista Re: The Disintegration of Trumpism - 06/27/21 01:36 PM
Along those lines.

Top GOP pollster: To win, ‘we need Trump to go away’

https://www.yahoo.com/news/top-gop-pollster-win-trump-123500977.html

Looking ahead to Nov 2022, it seems to me as long as Trump is the head or the face of the GOP, the fragile coalition of the majority of independents with the Democratic Party bodes well for retention of congress. As long as the Republican Party is devoid of fresh, new ideals, new solution to our problems, a coherent vision of the future. Just being Trump, Trump, Trump isn't about to cut it.

But this coalition is still fragile. Independents don't like either major party. I suppose if they did, they wouldn't be independents or swing voters. Usually independents gravitate to the party out of power for the midterms. So far that hasn't happened. Many reasons for that, but the big one, the main one is Trump.
Posted By: Greger Re: The Disintegration of Trumpism - 06/28/21 03:08 PM
Quote
as long as Trump is the head or the face of the GOP, the fragile coalition of the majority of independents with the Democratic Party bodes well for retention of congress. As long as the Republican Party is devoid of fresh, new ideas, new solutions to our problems, a coherent vision of the future.

For Republicans getting rid of all Democratic officeholders is the solution to all problems. Once they have control, they do nothing. No ideas, no solutions. Without Democrats, there are NO problems that can't be dealt with locally. The only job of government is defense. From enemies foreign and domestic.

Democrats are the primary domestic enemy. They are a collection of queers, socialists, and colored people. Weak on defense and soft on crime.

I suppose Democrats feel much the same about Republicans.

Republicans are the obstacle. The only thing preventing them from solving all problems.

And yet...once in power, they don't solve problems.

Quote
...All that hype and hollow empty useless promises about; if we vote dem they'll get things done. So a lot of us did vote dem, and just like we knew all along, they won't ever do s***.
They want the gop to run everything, hence the never ending whine of bipartisanship by the useless.

That's just a little rumble of independent discontent I picked up on Facebook this morning. Like Lucy and the football...that's why they sit home at midterms.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: The Disintegration of Trumpism - 06/28/21 05:35 PM
Quote
I'm not ready to give Trump credit for establishing anything that could be called "Trumpism"
I somehow sense we are not meaning the same thing, while using the same words.

For me Trumpism is not an ideology, or set of principles. What I mean is just as the Republican platform stated, "whatever Mr Trump said". Trumpism is the voice of all those aggrieved, sociological dissonance, who live in a rage they have been left behind (and I believe they have been) who represent a group of people who delusionally believe the world should be as they want it to be, and can not adapt to what it really is. Mr Trump represents (only because he is a consummate media master, who recognizes which people will heap praise on him) the bigotry and racism of a lost Southern culture and religious fundamentalists who believe only their brand of religion should be the basis of America.
I see as the only tenets of Trumpism is an effort to assuage the rage and bigotry, whatever they may be. This is done solely to "earn" praise from these poor ignorant people.

This has no resemblance to political ideology.
Posted By: perotista Re: The Disintegration of Trumpism - 06/28/21 05:44 PM
I would say Trump has no political ideology or philosophy. Trump is all about Trump and nothing more. The 7 time party switcher has adopted whichever party's ideology, philosophy, agenda he happened to belong to at the time. He really believes in nothing but himself, political wise that is.

To put it mildly, Trump is totally devoid of a political philosophy or ideology. But Trump has the ability to get his avid followers to believe in him as he is the champion of whatever political philosophy they think he has and stands for.
Posted By: pondering_it_all Re: The Disintegration of Trumpism - 06/28/21 08:47 PM
A lot of Trump's followers all share the assumption they "are better" than people of color, non-Christians, people from other countries, or who speak other languages. It's a heady mix of American Exceptionalism, racism, and bigotry. They are desperate to believe they are richer, morally superior, and blessed with heavenly grace, despite seeing examples every day that contradict those assumptions. Politicians like President Obama. Rich beloved professional athletes of color. Great Christian leaders like MLK. The list goes on and on.

It's getting bad now because of the inevitable change of demographics. Soon there won't be a White majority in America. There may already be too few Republicans to maintain minority rule. Scary, if you are one of them. And now the Delta variant is coming from India, the scariest country on Earth for these folks: Black people with nuclear weapons! Different country, different race, different religions, different languages...
Posted By: perotista Re: The Disintegration of Trumpism - 06/29/21 01:48 AM
Here's something to think about.

Progressives' Urgent Question: How to Win Over Voters of Color

https://www.yahoo.com/news/progressives-urgent-win-over-voters-154409501.html

There's a reason Trump received the highest black vote, 12% of any Republican presidential candidate going back to 1976 when Ford received 15%. With the exception of G.W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, G.W. spoke Spanish, Trump's 32% of the Hispanic vote was the most received of any Republican presidential candidate since Reagan in 1984 who received 37%.

Percentage of the vote broke down via race to see if we have a trend going.
Whites,2012 Romney 59%, 2016 Trump 57%, 2020 Trump 58%
Blacks 2012 Romney 6%, 2016 Trump 8%, 2020 Trump 12%
Hispanics 2012 Romney 27%, 2016 Trump 28%, 2020 Trump 32%
Asian 2012 Romney 26%, 2016 Trump 27%, 2020 Trump 34%

Perhaps, just relying on demographics isn't the guarantee that the democrats think it is. It may be, but I suppose time will tell. Yeah, interesting article for those who read it.
Posted By: jgw Re: The Disintegration of Trumpism - 06/29/21 05:29 PM
Last night we were watching the 11th hour. They showed people just leaving the last Trump rally. LOTS of them were leaving right in the middle of a Trump rant! That, I expect, tells us all something?

Perhaps his watchers are tired of it all? If I remember correctly he has lost viewers before and, apparently, it just might be happening again.
Posted By: perotista Re: The Disintegration of Trumpism - 06/29/21 08:17 PM
I think if the GOP is going to have any success in the 2022 midterms, they must get beyond Trump. From all the numbers I've been able to scan, what's holding the fragile coalition of a slight majority of Independents with the Democratic Party is Trump.

If Trump were to disappear, one would expect historical precedence to show its head. With independents that is usually aligning themselves with the party out of power during the midterms. Trump so far has negated that as close to 60% of independents don't like him. Here's the midterm votes and breakdown for independents.

2018 54-42 Democratic, Democrats gain 44 house seats and 3 senate seats regaining control of congress.
2014 54-42 Republican, Republicans regain the senate with a net gain of 9 seats and add 13 house seats
2010 56-37 Republican, Republicans gain 63 house seats and regain control of the house
2006 57-39 Democratic, Democrats regain congress, the GOP loses 33 house seats and 6 senate seats.
Posted By: Greger Re: The Disintegration of Trumpism - 06/30/21 02:24 PM
Quote
There's a reason Trump received the highest black vote, 12% of any Republican presidential candidate going back to 1976 when Ford received 15%.

And what might that reason be?

I suspect Black Affluenza. Once you go deeper than skin color you find that greed is present in all cultures. The Republican Party is the party of greed, the party of wealth. Is it the top 10% of Black earners showing their exploitive conservatism?

We know that Kanye West was a Trumper. We know he is a billionaire.
Posted By: perotista Re: The Disintegration of Trumpism - 06/30/21 02:56 PM
I really don't know. But I suspect it might be folks just getting tired of being told what is best for them by others.They want to decide for themselves.

Perhaps an example was right here in Georgia. Not the best example, but it may fit some. Back in the late 1990's when Zell Miller was governor there was to be a referendum on changing the state flag, removing the stars and bars. It seems to have a majority of Georgian's supporting it. Then we got tons of protesters from out of state demanding we change our own state flag. Money poured in from out of state for a bunch of TV and radio ads. We finally got our hackles up at being told by others what we should do, we decided it was our decision and not those from out of state. The Referendum failed. It was Georgian's decision, not out of staters.

Then in 2004 with little fanfare, no protests from out of staters the flag was changed and changed fairly quietly. Perhaps the moral of the story is let the people decide what is best for them, not having someone else tell them what is best for them.

Of course that may not be the reason, it may be because more blacks are moving out of the cities into the suburbs and becoming more affluent and thus more attracted to the GOP.

What's interesting to me is the president who white liberals think was the racist president ever, that president received the most Black votes this side of Gerald Ford. Percentage wise that is.

The bottom line is your SWAG is as good as my SWAG or any other's SWAG.
Posted By: Greger Re: The Disintegration of Trumpism - 07/01/21 10:53 PM
Quote
I really don't know. But I suspect it might be folks just getting tired of being told what is best for them by others. They want to decide for themselves.

And so they decided(all by themselves) that re-electing Donald Trump was best for them...?

Hard to fathom. Were they afraid of the vaccination and wanted it stopped? Were they against wearing masks? Against the shutdown when Blacks were dropping like flies? Were they just tied up in white identity politics and resentful of Democrats trying to hrlp Blacks to the exclusion of white people?

Was it the talk of defunding the police? A slogan coined by a Black extremist to save Black lives? Socialism maybe? Against the Black Lives Matter movement? Antifa?

Or were they mis-lead by Trump's lies...? He lobbied hard for Black votes.
Posted By: perotista Re: The Disintegration of Trumpism - 07/01/21 11:33 PM
You may have hit on it a week or two ago when you said, now I'm paraphrasing, that these groups aren't monolithic. I think each individual has a reason for voting the way they do, even if the way they vote goes against group think.

I'm going to keep an eye on how these different groups vote in 2022 to see if the trend continues or if it was an aberration. But your SWAG is as good as mine. Keep in mind now, we have a candidate in Adams leading so far in the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City who campaigned as tough on crime, giving the police more money and expanding the police force.

Perhaps it may have been talk about Defunding the police. Here from the article, poll.

A new poll by Ipsos and USA Today shows that less than 20 percent of respondents support the “defund the police” movement, with 58 percent opposing it.

The poll also suggested low support among Democrats and Black Americans for the movement.

Just 28 percent of Black respondents and 34 percent of Democrats backed the campaign, according to the poll.

https://thehill.com/homenews/news/542108-poll-finds-only-18-percent-support-defund-the-police

Perhaps the majority regardless of race want the police in their community or neighborhood to deter crime and arrest those who commit the crime? Maybe they didn't like extremist? Maybe they didn't like their homes and businesses being burned by the riots that followed and a takeover of a city center. Whole bunch of maybe's, I know.

Honestly, I just don't know, hence all the maybe's. Perhaps the high vote of Hispanics in the border regions of Texas, New Mexico and Arizona for Trump is that they wanted the wall. Perhaps they viewed the wall as a way to stop the drugs and drug cartels from raising mayhem along the border in their towns and to stop illegals from committing crimes in their towns, area. I don't know.

All I know is more blacks voted for Trump than any other Republican presidential candidate since Gerald Ford. More Hispanics voted for Trump since Reagan in 1984 with G.W. Bush being the lone exception.

Maybe to understand the whys one must walk in their shoes, which is something neither I nor you can do.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: The Disintegration of Trumpism - 07/02/21 10:24 PM
Quote
folks just getting tired of being told what is best for them by others.They want to decide for themselves.
Gee .... half the people hate almost every bill passed, which means half the people in the country should rebel because they are offended by the ones who pass laws.


Makes sense to me ... in an alternate universe which is not America
Posted By: rporter314 Re: The Disintegration of Trumpism - 07/02/21 10:37 PM
Quote
I think if the GOP is going to have any success in the 2022 midterms, they must get beyond Trump
I think that is the high priced opinion of the smart money.

My low priced opinion from deep in Trump country is, all the folks who type like that are delusional. Consider, every Republican, except the brave ones with objective integrity, realize Trump is the glue which brings all those people together. And, not only that, but he brings along Republicans who are fearful of losing America to the Democrats. And, now with more restrictive voting laws in place for 2022, there is a more than even chance the slim margins of 2020 will be wiped out for Democrats and we will see a Republican House takeover ... with more crazies .... . They will stop all investigations into Trump, insurrection, and related criminal activities. They will begin investigations into Obama and Clinton (I am being hyperbolic to make a point) and all other Democrats and Republicans who measure on the anti-Trump meter.

These guys are not interested in governing. They are however interested, whether they know or realize it or not, they will be trying to destroy the America we know and replace with a fascist government based on stupidity.

It doesn't matter how many independents don't like Trump. If they don't or can't vote .... you should be able to figure out the rest of that sentence.
Posted By: perotista Re: The Disintegration of Trumpism - 07/03/21 12:21 AM
Anger drives independents, the non-affiliated swing voters to the polls. We've seen that anger manifest itself in 1994, 2006, 2010 and 2018. Anger for different reasons and about different things. Those were all wave elections which changed control of the House of Representatives. The one thing all four wave elections have in common is independents, the non-affiliated were angry at the party in power for many varied reasons.

When not angry, independents tend to side with the party in power. Things and life are going fairly good, so they'll stay with whoever, whichever party is in power.

Trump, independents dislike of him in my opinion is the glue that has kept a slight majority of independents siding with the Democrats so far in Biden's first term. Which I think we can see with the numbers below.

Independents on Biden’s overall job performance as of 29 Jun 2021 54% approval/42% disapproval.
On the economy 47% approval/ 45% disapproval (2)
On immigration 38% approve/54% disapprove (4)
Foreign policy 46% approve/44% disapprove (8)
Climate change 43% approve/40% disapprove (3)
Education 38% approve/40% disapprove (6)
Healthcare 50% approve/36% disapprove (1)
Civil rights 42% approve/40% disapprove (5)
Crime 36% approve/46% disapprove (7)

Nothing will add up to 100% because of the Don't know/no opinion answers. The number in parentheses are the issues rank in importance to independents. Looking at those numbers, one has to wonder how Biden’s overall job performance among independents is higher than his performance on any one issue? That is probably the Trump factor. The dislike of Trump factor.

One last thing when it comes to independents: Their Favorability of Congressional Political Parties — Favorability of Congressional political parties –
House Democrats 31% favorable/58% unfavorable
House republicans 29% favorable/61% unfavorable
Senate Democrats 28% favorable/59% unfavorable
Senate Republicans 29% favorable/60% unfavorable

It seems independents hold Biden in very high regards, so far anyway. But when it comes to congressional parties, it’s a pox on both of them. If you want to know how independents still view Trump, he’s at 38% favorable/56% unfavorable compared to Biden’s 54% favorable/ 44% unfavorable.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: The Disintegration of Trumpism - 07/03/21 02:52 PM
and yet, none of the polling says anything about the title of the thread i.e. disintegration of Trumpism.

Just read the comments of a blurb about Trump making {{{{{BIGGLY}}}}} announcement on 1st amendment rights. These folks type as if everyone sees the truth and validity of what they say. Here is a news flash .... no Trump supporter cares what anyone who is anti-Trump says. It is pure delusion for people, including pundits of any persuasion, to say anything as if everyone gets it.

Some 50M people believe the election was stolen. A big % of those believe Trump is still the actual real president who is simply not living in the WH. Folks we have delusional people on both sides who would pay $18k for an imaginary sculpture, and talk about what a fine piece it is.

P ... none of the polling reflects that delusion. We live in dangerous times for our Democracy.

News flash .... sovereign citizens in stand-off in MA. The crazies are everywhere and Trump exacerbated the situation.
Posted By: logtroll Re: The Disintegration of Trumpism - 07/04/21 12:03 PM
When fraudulent schemes come to light,
Then Trump’s CFO they indict.
They want him to flip,
Abandon Trump’s ship --
And this is poor Weisselberg’s plight.

-Marion Wolf, Bergenfield, New Jersey
Posted By: Greger Re: The Disintegration of Trumpism - 07/05/21 02:41 PM
He won't flip.

He started out a book keeper for Fred Trump.

His loyalty is without question and he will go to jail.
Posted By: logtroll Re: The Disintegration of Trumpism - 07/05/21 05:00 PM
That's not a very good limerick... LOL
Posted By: jgw Re: The Disintegration of Trumpism - 07/06/21 06:21 PM
I have suggested this one before. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjbnMP5hc_xAhWCtJ4KHSbcCj8QFjAAegQIChAD&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.predictit.org%2F&usg=AOvVaw36Wm3zLYpPB-hL8iJvMcE-

At the above link you can bet on virtually ALL political questions. You also don't have to spend a whole lot while you do you (10 cents can be the bet!) If you can't find what you want to bet on you can tell them and they will put it up. So, if anybody really thinks they have the answer they should go here and give it a try - you might even get rich! I did and spent a whole ten bucks and lost it all. It took me a couple of months but I managed it. It was also educational and taught me that I really have no clue. In my younger, and richer days, I used to really gamble and rarely won a dime but it took me years to figure out that one (slow learner).

Oh, the interesting thing is that this site still, I think, is owned by a university in New Zealand! (always thought that was kinda interesting as well)
Posted By: pondering_it_all Re: The Disintegration of Trumpism - 07/07/21 09:14 AM
Weisselberg may be willing to spend the rest of his life in prison for Donnie, but I bet Ivanka is not. Unreported income and the employee+consultant scheme she did are some of Weisselberg's charges. If they indict him for those, there is no reason at all not to indict Ivanka. Then I think there is such a pattern of criminality and coverup, involving so many people, it is a perfect RICO prosecution.

A RICO prosecution tends to be very broad, charging everybody involved. That could include everybody who spoke on that platform on January 6th, Rudy, everybody who did criminal stuff during the Trump administration. AND confiscate all money that came from criminal activities, including all the money Trump paid his own businesses, money foreign governments paid in violation of emolument laws, money collected by fraudulent Trump grifts, etc. They could also charge members of congress who assisted insurrectionists.
Posted By: jgw Re: The Disintegration of Trumpism - 07/07/21 06:01 PM
AND he won't be running in 2024 if that happens.
Posted By: Greger Re: The Disintegration of Trumpism - 07/08/21 01:17 PM
SO I guess all the nation's troubles are at an end...Trump and his fam are going to jail.

The MAGAverse is faltering as truth overtakes lies and Republicans are finally seeing the light...

Baloney.

He's not going to jail.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: The Disintegration of Trumpism - 07/09/21 09:28 PM
Originally Posted by G. Elliot Morris
The Economist's G. Elliot Morris pointed to polls showing that a plurality of Republican voters think that state legislatures should have the right to overturn the results of presidential elections, while supermajorities believe that former President Donald Trump really won the 2020 election and that President Joe Biden is illegitimate.

In fact, Morris said that the most recent polling numbers show that 74 percent of Republican voters do not believe Biden's presidency is legitimate.


This is a poll.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to analyze and conclude Democracy is doomed in America. It also does not take a neurosurgeon to conclude the Republicans are the ones destroying America.

For those who rely on polls to do their thinking .... don't tax your brain any longer.
Posted By: perotista Re: The Disintegration of Trumpism - 07/09/21 11:37 PM
Originally Posted by rporter314
Originally Posted by G. Elliot Morris
The Economist's G. Elliot Morris pointed to polls showing that a plurality of Republican voters think that state legislatures should have the right to overturn the results of presidential elections, while supermajorities believe that former President Donald Trump really won the 2020 election and that President Joe Biden is illegitimate.

In fact, Morris said that the most recent polling numbers show that 74 percent of Republican voters do not believe Biden's presidency is legitimate.


This is a poll.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to analyze and conclude Democracy is doomed in America. It also does not take a neurosurgeon to conclude the Republicans are the ones destroying America.

For those who rely on polls to do their thinking .... don't tax your brain any longer.
Democracy may be doomed here, here's why.

Why The Two-Party System Is Effing Up U.S. Democracy

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-two-party-system-is-wrecking-american-democracy/
Posted By: Jeffery J. Haas Re: The Disintegration of Trumpism - 07/29/21 11:28 AM
Oh nothing, he's just there to get the download from Vlad's "member" so it can be transferred to Trump's minions in Congress.

Disintegration my rosy red butt.
All that's happened is that it has morphed into something larger, a kind of authoritarian boilerplate that functions whether Trump is alive or dead.

https://twitter.com/highbrow_nobrow/status/1419799243334766597
Posted By: Greger Re: The Disintegration of Trumpism - 07/29/21 03:39 PM
Quote
a kind of authoritarian boilerplate that functions whether Trump is alive or dead.

That remains to be seen.

He's only 6 months out of office and as near as I can tell the movement is floundering. They are not converting new members nor attracting new voters. Covid is now, almost exclusively killing Republicans.

While the majority of Republicans might believe Biden is an illegitimate president, they don't have any evidence to back that up...

And the majority of Americans know that it's just boolsheet.

As far as after he is dead? He will be remembered by most as a dangerous buffoon. By history, as an abject failure as a president and human being. His followers will be seen as maddened cultists, willing to believe anything in support of their guru.

Authoritarian boilerplate, however, will not go away.

These are the TEA Party folks. Formerly John Birchers in thrall to McCarthyism. These are the folks who beat John Lewis and fought civil rights. These are the Klansmen in thrall to George Wallace. These are the slavers, the exploiters, the Tories who fought for King George during the revolution. They are visible throughout history. Always supporting brutal authoritarianism in support of their own greed and entitlement.

Because their movement is so destructive, so divisive, and so obviously unsustainable, I think we will be able to reduce their numbers back into the fringes where they belong over the next few decades. But they will ALWAYS exist.
Posted By: logtroll Re: The Disintegration of Trumpism - 07/29/21 06:16 PM
I recently read a great article on just that subject. (But it was long, so out of respect for others I won't link it... snooze)
Posted By: Greger Re: The Disintegration of Trumpism - 07/30/21 03:12 PM
I've recently read dozens of similar articles. But I seldom link them unless I'm quoting them or starting a thread...sometimes I need them to back up wild claims I've made or to start an argument.

I don't tend to dig into the details, I watch the trends like Pero watches the polls.

The Christo-fascists are digging in their heels but America, and the world, are drifting away from them.
Posted By: perotista Re: The Disintegration of Trumpism - 07/30/21 04:01 PM
Even Republicans are very slowly drifting away from Trump. Back on election day 91% of Republicans viewed Trump favorably, 9% unfavorably. Question 74A.


https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/jsojry0vph/econTabReport.pdf

Today 82% of Republicans view Trump favorably, 15% unfavorably.. Question 45G

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/v60y11605p/econTabReport.pdf

But those are surface numbers, overall favorable/unfavorable. If you want to know avid Trumpers, you look at very favorable numbers, not the overall favorable. In those Republicans who viewed Trump very favorable last election was at 75%. Today, very favorable is down to 62%. That's a significant 13 point drop in avid Trumpers in the GOP. I suspect it will continue to drop. But 62% is no small number either.

One last thing, in order to be successful in elections, Republican pollsters are saying Trump needs to go away.

"Top GOP pollster: To win, ‘we need Trump to go away"

https://www.yahoo.com/news/top-gop-pollster-win-trump-123500977.html

Trump has been a god sent for the Democrats, for Biden and for the Democratic controlled congress so far. All are benefiting from the overall dislike of Trump especially among independents. Biden's honeymoon, usually a maximum of 100 days has lasted 6 months. I would say the longer Trump remains the face and leader of the Republican Party, the better chances are for the Democrats to retain control of both chambers of congress. This is solely due to independents disliking Trump. If the 2022 midterms were held today, the Democrats would pickup 1-3 senate seats, PA, NC and WI are the 3 in question. All other seats look fairly safe for the party that now holds them.

I won't venture a forecast on the House until redistricting is completed.
Posted By: Greger Re: The Disintegration of Trumpism - 08/01/21 06:30 PM
Quote
I won't venture a forecast on the House until redistricting is completed.

Yeah...forecast is too big a word for any conjecture we might have at this point.

Historically speaking, democrats stand to lose big, so if they do anything better than lose big it can be considered in a positive light.

You have to deal with individual districts, I only have to follow the trends.
The trend right now is not towards returning Trump to power, yet Republican voters insist their elected officials kowtow to his every murmur. Republican strategists aren't happy about their chances of re-taking the house or senate if current voter demands prevail.

So mostly I'm thinking that things might not go as badly for democrats as they could in 2022.

Biden is wisely avoiding doing "too much" and Congress is largely avoiding doing anything at all. That should keep independent voters sewed up and reap rewards in future elections.
Posted By: perotista Re: The Disintegration of Trumpism - 08/01/21 07:20 PM
Today, I don't see the Democrats losing big. I say the Democrats gain a couple of seats in the senate, perhaps 3. The house is quite another matter. But losing 13 seats in 2020 may not have been a bad thing. That leaves the Democrats with less seats to defend in 2022. Instead of 235 seats, they now have 220 with 2 seats vacant which will be filled in a special elections come Nov.

Without redistricting being completed, it's hard getting a feel of safe vs. competitive districts or districts which could switch or change parties. Perhaps looking at the past first midterm elections when a president either made independents angry or not, plus job approval from independents.

2018 Independents angry at Trump, 35% approval, GOP lost 44 seats and control of the house
2010 Independents angry at Obama, 41% approval, Democrats lost 63 seats and control of the house
2002 Independents happy with Bush Jr.,59% approval, Republicans gained 8 seats, retained control of the house.
1994 Independents angry at Bill Clinton,40% approval, Democrats lost 54 seats and control of the house.
1990 Independents happy with Bush Sr., 53% approval, But the republicans still lost 7 seats.
1982 Independents angry at Reagan, 40% approval, Republicans lost 26 seats
1978 Independents angry at Carter, 42% approval, Democrats lost 15 seats

Keep in mind, the approval rating is from independents and independents only, not all adults. Also the approval rating is nationwide, not district by district. Also during Carter and Reagan independents made up only around 25% of the electorate, so their impact would be less than it is today with independents put at 40% plus.

Also, independents are happy with Biden as of today with 51% approval. Which would put the upcoming midterms more in line with 1990 and 2002 for the party in power than any of the rest.

One last thing, Gallup puts party affiliation at 30% Democrat, 24% Republican, 44% independent. But if you count independent leaners you end up with 50% democrats/independents lean Democratic vs. 41% Republican/independents lean Republican. As of 18 Jun 2021 that is.

Conclusion, as of today, the Democrats are in good shape to retain both chambers. But no predictions or forecasts except for the senate.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: The Disintegration of Trumpism - 08/01/21 09:48 PM
Originally Posted by logtroll
Originally Posted by rporter314
Trumpism is here to stay. While I agree it has devolved into "Blithering Idiocy", that does not imply it will disappear. It has simply morphed into a more noxious version. Elected Republicans fear of THE BASE is the criteria for which we should gauge status. Refusal to codify voting standards is but one example of how Trumpism has continued to poison society.
I agree that there has been a large shift in the chutzpah being shown by THE BASE...
Except over at dead Andrew's blog, WhiteBart. They are true die-hards there. They're the type that say that you're 99.9% safe from getting COVID.

Hmm

I read the comments there. laugh
Posted By: Greger Re: The Disintegration of Trumpism - 08/02/21 12:29 AM
Quote
Conclusion, as of today, the Democrats are in good shape to retain both chambers.

Yep. But a lot can happen between now and then.
Posted By: perotista Re: The Disintegration of Trumpism - 08/02/21 02:19 AM
Originally Posted by Greger
Quote
Conclusion, as of today, the Democrats are in good shape to retain both chambers.

Yep. But a lot can happen between now and then.
Yes, exactly and it will. There are always some unforeseen event or happening that takes place. It's also a big question mark on how long the benefit, especially from independents of Biden not being Trump will last? 6 months into the Biden presidency, that benefit is still there.

The big question is will that benefit drop down to democratic congressional candidates? It didn't in Nov 2020. So we'll just have to wait until after redistricting is done to get a feel about the House.

Here's the latest generic congressional poll with some other good information.

https://scottrasmussen.com/generic-ballot-democrats-41-republicans-38-2/
Posted By: Greger Re: The Disintegration of Trumpism - 08/02/21 03:18 PM
Quote
The big question is will that benefit drop down to democratic congressional candidates? It didn't in Nov 2020.

2020 saw a massive surge in Trump protectionism from the Republican base. Republican turnout was impressive and overpowered Democrats in a lot of close races.

Overall, it was not enough to keep the presidency and Senate or take back the House. A normal election would have seen Trump re-elected and massive Republican losses in Congress. 2020 was anything but normal.

2016 was pretty strange too. Are "normal elections" a thing of the past?

Biden is a cagey old politico and is very aware of his party doing too much with the Affordable Care Act. He's being very careful and while his caution is anathema to my personal political agenda, it is most likely the best thing for the nation at this time.

And I'm thinking that, yes, the benefit of not being a Trumpy idiot and conspiracy theorist is going to play well among the majority of voters in 2022.

I'm also thinking that if we hand Congress back over to them for a couple of years it will increase the chances of Democratic gains in 2024...

There will come a time when the libs are tired of getting owned and take their weary asses down to the polls to do some owning of their own.
Posted By: perotista Re: The Disintegration of Trumpism - 08/02/21 05:32 PM
I agree with most of what you said. Now there was a massive surge all around. There was a difference, independents which made up 31% of those who voted in 2016 fell to 26% in 2020. Republicans and democrats increased. Republicans from 33% to 35% of those who actually voted over 2016 and democrats from 36% to 38%. It was independents in those close or swing districts that made the difference. They voted 41% for Trump, but 48% nationwide for Republican congressional candidates. The actual independent vote was 48-48 with 4% voting third party. I don't have the figures at hand for the districts the GOP switched, but just going by the national numbers, it seems to me the independent vote made the difference in losing those 13 seats. Not a surge or increase in Republican voters, the Democrats matched that in 2020.

Trump wasn't going to be reelected. I'm surprised he managed 46%. But that percentage is the same Trump received in 2016. The difference is Biden received 52% of the vote compared to Hillary's 48%. A lot fewer voters voted third party in 2020 compared to 2016. 6% voted third party in 2016, 2% in 2020. Biden won most of those who didn't vote third party this time around. There you have it, those who voted third party protesting the two choices of Trump and Clinton in 2016, decided on Biden in 2020. The difference in being a likable candidate and not being liked or being disliked as both Trump and Hillary were.

It's easy to understand independents voting for Biden, the likability factor. Only 30% of independents liked Trump as a person, 59% disliked him as a person. Biden, 43% liked him as a person, 45% disliked him. Independents going to Biden by 13 points is a no brainier. But what about congress, why would someone vote Biden for the presidency, then Republican for congress?

I have a theory, Only 16% of independents approved of the job congress was doing back in Nov 2020, a massive 63% disapproved. the Democrats controlled the house. Although liking Biden, disliking Trump, independents disliked or didn't approve of congress. Hence voting for Biden, then Republican for congress since the democrats were in-charge of the House. More against the party in power. But the massive turnout by both major parties faithful somewhat mitigated independents voting against the party in power resulting in a loss of 13 seats.

It might be as simple as the disliked of Trump drove voters to vote for Biden, the disapproval of congress drove some of those same Biden voters to vote Republican for congress. It's a theory. I'll add than in November 2020, independents viewed both major parties about the same, 33/63% favorable/unfavorable for the Democratic Party, 34/62% favorable/unfavorable for the Republican Party.

So when you disapprove you vote against the party in power, in this case the Democratic controlled house. Just a theory.
© ReaderRant