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Someone needs to look at a map. All Iran needs to do is threaten the shipping out of the gulf and insurance rates will spike and so will oil prices. They don't actually have to do anything, just make the threat. Would anyone here like to see 10-12 dollars a gallon for gas? Israel is not worth it,and Iran is not that big of a threat. Since the Israelis seem hell bent on recreating the Warsaw Ghetto in Gaza, I say let 'em rot. Also, out supply chain in Iraq and Afghanistan is extremely vulnerable...Even our own military leadership doesn't want to pick a fight with Iran.

The last I read, the CIA has said they gave up their program some time ago, so where is the evidence that they have one or are developing one? The only people who keep making that claim are Repub hawks who never saw a war they didn't like, as long as they don't have to fight it, and the paranoid Israelis. Bibi seems to think the reason the US exists is to serve as the enforcement arm of Israeli foreign policy.

Why does the entire world have to be brought to the brink of war over that %$^tty little country?

Last edited by Allen Owen; 04/05/10 10:19 PM. Reason: speling

"When fascism comes to this country it will be draped in the flag and carrying a cross"-Sinclair Lewis
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Originally Posted by Ma_Republican
The US in control of both Iraq and Iran.
Israel secure insire her borders without an enemy camped on her doorstep.
Saudi Arabia in revolution because she refused to support Iran, or Saudi Arabia in revolt because they refuse to attack US forces in Iraq inretaliation for Israels attack on Iran.
Turkey in possession of the northern oil fields of Iraq.
A unified Iraq in the south.
Syria would become the radical power of the region, with Lebannon becoming a terrorist enclave once again.

I suppose that it "might" work out as nicely as you suggest. There were also lots of optimistic predictions before the invasion of Iraq.... and mostly none of them worked out.

Iran is a physically much large country than Iraq. It has many more people. It is strategically located on the oil shipping routes.

I just do not see any good end to a scenario that starts with Israel making a nuclear attack on a Muslim country.

Among other things, there would be enormous pressure on Pakistan to supply nuclear weapons for a retaliatory attack. It is a scenario that cannot be ruled out.

Even if Iran does not have an A bomb, they likely could construct some sort of dirty bomb and get it somewhere inconvenient... like Israel or new York.

You would also have an enormous escalation of resources available to purchase nuclear weapons in the open market. Al Quedas likely never had 100s of millions of dollars for this purpose. But once you launch a nuclear attack on a Muslim nation... there will be a nation somewhere who is willing to spend large amounts of money to get a bomb from somewhere. I think North Korea would sell a bomb and missile for a billion dollars. Of course it does not have to be a missile, it could be a low flying ultra light plane flying from Lebanon or Syria... or Egypt... none of those nations would even have to know or subscribe to the plot

Ma....
what happens if your fantasy scenario does not work out as planned?


"It's not a lie if you believe it." -- George Costanza
The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves. --Bertrand Russel
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Will Americans line up for and against war?

It should be interesting to see the opinions, arguments, and talking points that will come out of the upcoming discussions.

Will the Democrats and Republicans line up as for and against?

What about the Malkins, Limbaughs, Coulters, Savages etc.?

Will it be a matter of specifics, or generalities?

As the jockeying for position goes forward, will the bitterness that characterizes the policies on healthcare and the economy continue?

What happens to consensus? Will we turn into arguing "patriotism"?

Will the public actually get involved by learning about the details, or will the opinion polls tell the people how and what they think?

We all have a great deal to absorb and relate.

The coming weeks and months may turn into a new form of involvement. I would suggest that we may for the first time ever, see a public with opinions before the fact, instead of being passive onlookers.

It has been some time since talk of nuclear weapons has been at the heart of diplomatic disputes. Always in the background, to be sure, but despite Obama's promise of no nukes, the alert level may be rising to a deep orange.

Let's watch to see how the framework for war plays out.

Is it possible that the possibility of war might weigh more heavily than the economy?



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the run up for the next phase is well in progress. In general Republicans have worked to increase the fervor of "doing something before it is too late" even during the last administration.

The public is likely to go along more slowly this time, I think, although if the fear level gets high enough, they will put aside debt and everything else.

We are a pathetic people.


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Whats the tea party take on this?

surely they would be against a war that might raise taxes


"The basic tool for the manipulation of reality is the manipulation of words. If you can control the meaning of words, you can control the people who must use the words."
(Philip K.Dick)

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Originally Posted by Schlack
Whats the tea party take on this?

surely they would be against a war that might raise taxes

Why would we raise taxes to fight a war?


"It's not a lie if you believe it." -- George Costanza
The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves. --Bertrand Russel
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Originally Posted by Ma_Republican
Originally Posted by Joe Keegan
Originally Posted by Checkerboard Strangler
This is a 1984 interview. Zappa sounds almost optimistic.
I wonder what he'd think today. He might look back on what he said in the Year of Orwell and think, "how could I have been so naive!"

We're not the people we were in 1984.
But the one thing he said about government being "a cardboard cutout" really seems to hold true today, maybe more than ever.
What concerns me is that some strategists believe that nuclear war is "survivable." I don't know and I don't want to find out, either. From what I've read, Russia has underground cities in anticipation of such an inevitability, and the US has some bases, etc. for such an event. Seems that the Russian Civil Defense preparedness is ahead of the US's.

That was because Russia believed in surviving the aftermath, America was dominated by politics that made mass survival unpopular.
Whose survival? And, "unpopular" with whom? The elite or us peasants?

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Originally Posted by Phil Hoskins
the run up for the next phase is well in progress. In general Republicans have worked to increase the fervor of "doing something before it is too late" even during the last administration.

The public is likely to go along more slowly this time, I think, although if the fear level gets high enough, they will put aside debt and everything else.

We are a pathetic people.
59% support military action...."
From the article:
Quote
"But if economic and diplomatic efforts fail, support for military action rises to 59 percent, with only 39 percent opposing military action under those circumstances," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

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Don't get me wrong, I am not advocating anything, I just see a scenario here that makes try to think about the consequences of the current situation. Israel is the BMOC in the middle east, and that reputation has kept her safer than her military has. If Israel decides that Iran must be stopped there is very little that the world can do to stop it. The politics of the region make it impossible for one conflict to brek out without others breaking out.

If Isreal decides to attack then all bets are off, and it is better than even money that she will. If she is fast enough and efficient enough then the straights should be safe in the short term, time enough to get enough armed forces on the water to stop Iran.

Everybody thinks that the US can stop Israel, or that we will attack Iran, but that ain't going to happen any time soon. What leverage we had with Israel was lost when Obama insulted Bebe, forget about the insult Bebe leveled at the US first, in Israel that won't fly while in the US there is a massive well of sympathy and good intentions toward Israel. By doing what Obama did, he untied the hands of Israel and in effect told her she was on her own.

I am facinated by the whole political mechanism in the ME. They all hate each other, but they all hate somebody else more, so deals are made and hands are shaken and for a short time the ME will unite against a percieved enemy.

I just want people to think about some very real consequences of any war with Iran. One question nobody has asked is if Iran already has a nuke. That would change the whole dymnamic.


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“The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.”
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It doesn't matter how many ships we put in the gulf, all Iran has to do is make the threat to mine the straights or even throw rocks at tankers, the insurance companies will raise the rates on the oil tankers. Thus, the cost will be passed to us, the hapless, brain-dead consumer. As for whether or not we can control Israel, well since we give them their planes and parts for those planes, I don't see why we couldn't if we really wanted to. We also would provide aerial refueling since I suspect Iran is too far away to fly without it. We could always do what Brzezinski suggested do, shoot down their jets as they fly over Iraq. As for the massive well of sympathy for Israel here in the US, I think that may be changing....

Are we so certain that Iran has a nuke? And if they have a nuke, so what? They will have only one, so if Israel does get nuked, we will all know who is responsible. Do you blame them for wanting one? After all, they are surrounded by people who don't like them, so it's a bit like cornering a rat, and then being shocked you you get bit.

I don't see how Israel can really be our ally. Google the USS Liberty incident. Rather damning I think.


"When fascism comes to this country it will be draped in the flag and carrying a cross"-Sinclair Lewis
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