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Fiasco at Public Health England: Seems they were using an obsolete version of Excell as their database of cases to track. On about September 24th, the number of active cases in the database went over 65535, so Excell just dropped any additions. Somebody just noticed the number had remained at that level for a couple of weeks. They failed to track about 16000 cases. The average number of close contacts per case is three, so about 48,000 potentially exposed people have been merrily wandering around England when they should have been isolated or taking precautions.

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I've been perseverating over COVID (well, really since it began) especially since my negative test. Then Trump tested positive. Virtually the entire month has seen a national plateau of 750 deaths/40-45,000+ cases a day. About 10% of the population has been exposed. That means we are not getting rid of this thing any time soon. And Trump is not living in the real world, inviting all of us to join him in unreality. ARGH!

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So much of the Republican version of Covid-19 is based on the idea that it's harmless to most people. That is a myth. It may leave most people who have "recovered" with hidden long-term injuries. And not just the "long-haulers". I'm talking about young people who were asymptomatic.

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You're just not a real Republican until you have had Covid. coffee


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I see the Johnson & Johnson vaccine trials are all halted because one test subject got sick. They have not said what the symptom is yet. More to follow, I suppose.

Oxford vaccine trial is still halted in the US.

So much for a vaccine by election day. I think this is why Eric Trump is now calling the MAB cocktail a "vaccine": So they can tell their followers a "vaccine" is ready. Sure if you have a helicopter to fly you to Walter Reed, and play golf with the Regeneron CEO. And get to ignore FDA approval, of course.

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Eli Lilly's monoclonal antibody trial is halted because of a test subject's side effect. I wonder it the Regeneron MAB will have the same side effects in it's trial. Hope it doesn't affect 74 year old fat guys.

There is such a thing as antibody enhanced infection. Basically, an antibody locked onto a virus is ingested by one of the immune cells, and then the virus starts reproducing inside the immune cell. I guess we will see if this happens as these trials progress, and participants get exposed to more virus.

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Here are a couple of links on vaccines. The Chinese seem to be well ahead of everybody else. They have had some of their vaccines in phase 3 for 4/5 months worldwide. India is slightly behind but moving right along. There have also been some of these vaccines that have been stopped for one reason or another. There is also indications that some are going public in the near future. Some of the American efforts are covered as well but seem to be in question by many.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-new...DNpH6Mnh8L.html

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32137-1/fulltext

https://www.thenewsminute.com/article/go...idelines-135784

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Know what would be way more effective than a vaccine? Tell everybody to go out and get enough food and medicine for two weeks. Supply MRE's and drinking water for people too poor or unable to get out to shop. Then have an absolute lockdown for two weeks. No "essential worker" exceptions, other that first responders. All businesses close for two weeks. The only people on the streets are cops, firemen, and utility repair crews.

The pandemic would be over. After that two weeks we could all go back to work, play, bars, restaurants, casual sex, etc. But cops would have to arrest and jail people who evaded quarantine. They also need to do the same in jails and prisons. Segregate people who are contagious using those spit test strips. Same in nursing homes, mental hospitals, and any place where people are forced together.

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Dr. Paul Marik Lecture

This is the most comprehensive presentation on Covid-19 out there today. It does get a bit technical, but none of the technical bits are critical to understanding the bigger picture. He talks about the latest research papers, but also throws in a bit of cynicism about the economic and political forces screwing up our response to the pandemic.

Everything in this lecture is true, and he has no hidden agenda or economic ties that influence his work.

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I see the US government has ended Eli Lilly's trial of monoclonal antibody for hospitalized patients. Early statistics prove it doesn't work. I'm sure the same use of Regeneron's MAB therapy will have the same problem. The reason is simple: It does no good to beat a dead horse, or in this case a dead virus.

The people designing these trials are ignoring all the work that shows the virus is declining because of innate immune system attack by the time people have symptoms bad enough to be hospitalized. They may not have any "live" virus left by then! The symptoms are all about the immune system over-reacting to the dead virus fragments still in the body. That's the cytokine storm. At that point, the only therapy useful is steroids and anticoagulants.

Lilly is continuing some trials of using their MAB early, before symptoms appear. And preliminary stats show that has promise. If you stop viral replication, that's less dead virus fragments the immune system will have to over-stimulate it.

The big problem is that you have to give people without symptoms MAB, or indeed any anti-viral. The only way you even know they are infected, is to test every day with Dr. Mina's $1 spit test strips. If you catch an infection on the first day of contagion, an antiviral would help. But of course, most of those people will have asymptomatic infections or mild cases so they don't really need a $30,000 MAB or $3000 remdesivir. Maybe the antiviral you should give them is $1 worth of ivermectin?

I think MABs are only useful at this point to give Covid health care workers temporary passive immunity. But that would cost about $120K per worker per year.

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