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I'm a huge fan of jungle primaries or non-partisan primaries, ranked choice, not so much.

"Group backed by Murdoch daughter-in-law targets primary elections as a 'threat to democracy'"

https://www.yahoo.com/news/group-backed-...-090033927.html

Louisiana has utilized jungle primaries for as long as I can remember. Here in Georgia we've had them in the special elections for CD-6 and for the senate last year. California used the jungle primary system for their senate race.

I'm interested to see what you all think.

If you're wondering where I've been, I've just been watching the political developments as in the context for the 2022 election which so far I haven't seen anything that would have any influence on the upcoming midterms. Now I think these jungle or non-partisan primaries where all candidates are on the ballot regardless of party along with ranked voting certainly could.

Interesting that Alaska is going to the jungle primary, so Trump targeting Murkowski very well could be a total waste of time.

I agree with Kathryn Murdoch in that our present primary system is a direct threat to our democracy.


It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
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Carpal Tunnel
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Quote:
our present primary system is a direct threat to our democracy.

I agree, it seems to weed out all the good candidates and leave us with the dreck.

I haven't seen anything yet that's liable to effect the midterms yet. Trump is going to be playing revenge politics and pitting republicans against republicans in his bid to unseat those who were disloyal to him.

I think that's gonna backfire.

Fate has dealt Biden a slam dunk. I'm betting that the next two years are going to be really really good years. And the Democrats are going to get the credit. I see a net gain in congressional seats for democrats in '22 unless something happens to change that.

Readerant will be going offline for a while as we move to a new server I hope to see you all on the other side....


Good coffee, good weed, and time on my hands...
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I agree that the revenge politics of Trump is liable to backfire. He and his followers will defeat an incumbent in the primary causing an open seat. An open seat is much easier to win than beating an incumbent.

But before I get giddy if I were a Democrat, I'd wait to see how reapportionment plays out along with the redrawing of congressional districts. I haven't seen anything new on the reapportionment Here's the latest that I have.

https://www.270towin.com/news/2019/12/30...n-data_925.html

If the projections are correct, New York, Michigan, Minnesota, Illinois, Pennsylvania, California, Rhode Island, Ohio, West Virginia and Alabama all lose one. Texas gains 3, Florida 2, those gaining 1, North Carolina, Arizona, Colorado, Montana and Oregon.


It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
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Originally Posted By: perotista
I agree that the revenge politics of Trump is liable to backfire. .

Trump...isn't he that twice impeached guy who lost the House, Senate and White House all in 24 months and who's so broke now that his 30 year old 757 is sitting on a tarmac in New York broken down and has been broken down since Inaugural Day 2021?

THAT guy? coffee , rolleyes


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Carpal Tunnel
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THAT guy still has the republican party by the short hairs and they will dance when he pulls their strings.


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If the GOP does, dance to Trump's string pulling, that is their problem as far as I'm concerned.

I just received my March update of party affiliation from Gallup. Interesting if one compares election day, Nov 2020 to today, Mar 2021. Percentage of the electorate.

Republicans Nov 2020 30%, Mar 2021 25%
Democrats Nov 2020 31% Mar 2021 32%
Independents Nov 2020 38%, Mar 2021 41%.

Independent Break down. Percentage of the total electorate
independents lean Democratic Nov 2020 17%, Mar 2021 15%
independents leans Republican Nov 2020 15%, Mar 2021 15%
independents with no leans, true or pure independents Nov 2020 6%, Mar 2021 11%.

Being as dynamic as party affiliation is, these numbers don't mean anything for 2022. But it's interesting that the Republican Party has dropped five point since November 2020, while the Democratic Party gained but a single point. The rest went into the independent column.

Also the Democratic Party lost a couple of points among independents lean Democratic while independents with no leans rose five points.

It seems the numbers point to Republicans who dislike Trump and his control moved out of the Republican Party. But they refuse to join the Democratic Party becoming independents. Independents with no leans which could mean a change in their voting habits or it might not.

Anyway one looks at it, the Republican Party has a huge Problem. That problem, Trump in my opinion.


It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
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Carpal Tunnel
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I still question your "pure" independents.

But still it's no surprise that while Republican numbers shrunk due to Trump's antics, the Dem column didn't go up by much. Former Republicans are conservative and unlikely to become liberals overnight.

Independent candidates, especially of the "pure" variety, are pretty hard to find, so that puts most of them voting for Democrats and Republicans whether they are party members or not. Conservatives will generally vote Republican, liberals will generally vote Democrat. A smattering will vote third party.

It's all a matter of trigger points and what get the most of 'em off the couch.

Turned out Trump was hated more than he was loved. But the polls told us that for four solid years...that Trump never commanded the respect of half the nation. This was the easiest presidential race EVER to predict.

Biden has got his finger on the pulse of the nation. Common sense stuff mostly, coupled with old fashioned political savvy...

Old Uncle Joe gonna be walkin' in high cotton come 2022...and in 2024 will be ready to retire from a successful term.

It's gonna be interesting watching the Republican Party try to come back from the Trump years...it isn't gonna be easy and it isn't gonna happen before 2022.


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Yeah, the GOP is in-between a rock and a hard place. How to get rid of Trump and still retain his followers or have them to continue to vote Republican won't be easy. They're following the man, not the party.

I really haven't seen anything or received anything to go by for any prediction about 2022. Until reapportionment happens and the new district lines are drawn, I'd say one is wasting their time trying to forecast or predict 2022.

Perhaps the question to be asked is how long will it last that Biden can bask in the sunlight of not being Trump. Perhaps this early it is just best to look at party affiliation in the context of members and independent leaners.

As of 15 Mar 2021 Republicans plus Republican leaners 40%. Democrats plus democratic leaners 47%. Now compare those numbers to Nov 2020. Republicans plus republican leaners 45%, Democrats plus Democratic leaners 48%. Since Nov 2020 the Democrats have gone from a 3 point advantage to a 7 point advantage.

Now these numbers are dynamic and change constantly, but for the Democratic Party, the trend is in their direction. Now I'd wait six months and compare them again. Biden and company are still basically in the honeymoon phase.

As of 31 March of a presdent's first year, here are their overall job approval numbers.

Biden 54%
Trump 40%
Obama 62%
Bush II 53%
Bill Clinton 52%
Bush I 58%
Reagan 60%
Carter 72%


It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
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I just re-read the voting thing (H.R.1) and found I was completely wrong about the 16 year old voting. I will let it be but please be advised that I was wrong about that one!

I think I heard that the Dems, in their infinite wisdom, wants all 16 year old folk to have the vote. There were a few other things in some of their other bills, from the house, that were just flat out bizarre. Nobody is really talking about this. The Republicans, in their infinite wisdom, are whining that the Democrats are not sharing but, for some very strange reason, are not really talking about this stuff. I wonder, are they planning to let the Dems have it all and THEN start telling everybody what was in the legislation?

I find it pretty strange and would recommend just giving the proposed legislation a bit of a read to see what is really going on. Its all out there!

Last edited by jgw; 04/02/21 06:42 PM.
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Quote:
Perhaps the question to be asked is how long will it last that Biden can bask in the sunlight of not being Trump.


About two years is my guess.

I'm not making predictions so much as speculating about the most likely scenario to play out over the next two years....

Pandemic will be resolved.
Economy will bounce back.
Dems will get the credit.

We all know that normally the party in power loses seats at the mid-terms...but these have not been normal times and this next election could go very well for Democrats.

Speculation...


Good coffee, good weed, and time on my hands...
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