How many people would vote for a Republican, according to the latest generic congressional poll, if the midterm election were held today, 47% would vote Democratic, 42% Republican. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html
This however is nationally, not district by district which congressional elections are based on. Which means the poll means nothing, but gives you an idea of where things stand today on a national basis. It also shows that 11% of the electorate is undecided.
If you want to compare 2020 to what the generic congressional poll is showing today, on 2 Nov 2020 it was 48% Democratic, 41% Republican, 11% undecided, which ended up nationally, final results 51% Democratic, 48% Republican. But this was a national poll and not district by district, even though the GOP lost the national vote, they picked up a net gain of 14 seats. Even so, the 51% of the 435 congressional members comes out to, 221.85 which in fact the Democrats have exactly 222 seats.
It usually doesn't work this way, one party or the other usually has far more seats that what the national total would suggest. The Democrats received 53% of the national vote in 2018, which out equate to 230 seats, but they had 237.
I think as long as the focus is on Trump being the head of the GOP, the Democrats are in good shape. But if something happens, Trump fades or goes away, then the focus will be on Biden and the democratic controlled congress. As long as independents are satisfied with them, all is good. But if Biden and the Democratic controlled congress makes independents angry at them, watch out. A repeat of a wave election could very well happen. But as long as the focus is on Trump and not the Democrats as it is today, all will be well. The more media attention that is give one, the worst that someone seems to the general public. Not being in the media spotlight is good. The big exception to this rule was the 2016 presidential election where Trump hogged the limelight.