Today's Birthdays
There are no members with birthdays on this day.
Current Topics
National Commission to Investigate the January 6
by rporter314 - 06/18/21 04:52 PM
Say no to bipartisanship
by pondering_it_all - 06/18/21 10:21 AM
Trump's Resentfuls
by perotista - 06/18/21 12:36 AM
Roundtable for Spring 2021
by pondering_it_all - 06/17/21 12:54 AM
Vaccines, over 65, youth
by pondering_it_all - 06/17/21 12:29 AM
Confused
by Greger - 06/16/21 01:47 PM
Arizona Audit/Recount 2020 election
by Greger - 06/15/21 03:40 PM
Social Media
by jgw - 06/08/21 05:19 PM
History of American Hate
by jgw - 06/06/21 06:25 PM
Tower of Babel - an origin myth
by pondering_it_all - 06/01/21 12:38 AM
Commonalities, Diversity, Amalgamation
by NW Ponderer - 05/30/21 10:07 PM
Lies and the Law
by jgw - 05/26/21 05:45 PM
Ousting Liz Cheney Could Backfire on the GOP
by perotista - 05/22/21 07:24 PM
infrastructure report card
by jgw - 05/22/21 04:56 PM
Popular Topics(Views)
9,225,101 my own book page
4,462,349 We shall overcome
3,417,728 Campaign 2016
3,170,206 Trump's Trumpet
2,482,379 3 word story game
Previous Thread
Next Thread
Print Thread
Rate Thread
Page 2 of 3 1 2 3
Joined: Mar 2003
Posts: 7,526
Likes: 2
veteran
Offline
veteran
Joined: Mar 2003
Posts: 7,526
Likes: 2
Quote
Go figure

Well .... don't assume Hispanics are a monolithic voting/issue block. And definitely don't assume because illegal southern border crossings are mostly Hispanics that Americans of Hispanic descent would look the other way.

The shift in voters may be explained in a similar way that black voters switched from the Republican Party to the Democrat Party in the 1930's ... perhaps failure to deliver civil rights in favor of economic gains.

Here's the strange thing about black employment which Mr Trump touted as his signature black achievement. Pres Obama moved the needle on black employment than Mr Trump did for the same period. The difference of course is the black and white of the numbers, Mr Trump's numbers were lower, despite the fact he actually did less, while Pres Obama's numbers were higher despite the fact he did more. This is too hard to explain to ignorant folk, so I don't try any more.

I think you should recognize both the dynamics and volatility of voters, especially independents. I think the most significant change is the wholesale deformation of the party formerly known as the Republican Party, swallowed in the maelstrom of fascism. Perhaps we will be witnesses to the fall of American Democracy as the voting public prefers the idolatry of political cultism.

The current purveyors of Trumpism will forever be known as apostates of Democracy.

God Save America


ignorance is the enemy
without equality there is no liberty
Joined: Sep 2019
Posts: 1,394
Likes: 2
member
Offline
member
Joined: Sep 2019
Posts: 1,394
Likes: 2
I study independents and usually discard out the window Republicans and Democrats as I know how they'll vote. Yes, independents are a very finicky group which can go big one election for one party and big for the other party the next.

If you look at the wave elections, it was independents who caused it. Not either party's base. Just looking at wave elections.

1994 independents voted for Republican congressional candidates by a 56-42 margin, the republicans picked up 54 seats and control of the house for the first time in 40 years.

2006 independents voted Democratic by a margin of 57-39 over Republicans.Independents had voted Republican by a 50-48 margin in 2004. That was a swing in 2 years from a plus 2 to a minus 18 for the GOP or a 20 point swing. The Democrats picked up 33 seats and regained control of the house.

2010 independents voted 56-37 Republican over Democratic congressional candidates. The GOP picked up 63 seats. In 2008, independents had gone for the Democratic congressional candidates by a 52-45 margin. In just 2 years independents went from a plus 7 for the Democrats to a minus 19 for the democrats for a swing of 26 points.

2012 independents voted for Romney by a 51-48 margin, close to a wash. Obama won the election 51-47. Independents voted 50-49 for Republican congressional candidates. Total congressional vote was 49-48 Democratic.

2014 independents voted 54-42 for Republican congressional candidates and the total vote was 51-46 Republican.

2016 Independents voted for Trump 46-42 with 12% voting third party. In congressional election independents voted Republican 51-47. Total congressional vote was 49-48 Republican.

2018 Independents voted for the Democratic congressional candidates by a 54-42 with the Democrats picking up 44 seats. Just 2 years earlier, independents voted Republican by a 51-47 margin. Another swing of 16 points in just 2 years. .

2020 Independents voted for Biden 54-41 with 5% voting third party. In Congressional elections independents voted Democratic 50-48. who knows how independents will vote in 2022. But here again, 2 years earlier independents had gone Democratic by 12 points, this year by 2. That a loss of 10 points in 2 years.

So I know about volatility of independents. I watch them closely as independents decide elections, not either party's base. What I have seen is independents becoming less and less satisfied with the Democratic controlled congress, while remaining highly satisfied with Biden. Now independents always give congress critters very low marks. But since the first week of Feb till today, the favorable view of Democrats in congress fell from a 38% down to 29%. Actually a 38% favorable for any congress critter is real good.

Biden over the same timer period started off at 55% approval, is at 53% approval by independents. Way too early to know what all this means for 2022, but I do watch independents real close.


It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 17,983
Likes: 4
Carpal Tunnel
Offline
Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 17,983
Likes: 4
Quote
Biden over the same timer period started off at 55% approval, is at 53% approval by independents. Way too early to know what all this means for 2022, but I do watch independents real close.

So after the first 100+ days where big legislation was forced through by Democrats alone, where Biden revealed his moderate leftist agenda, it appears that independents are generally pleased.

I think America overall is well pleased.

So the question is...

What's it gonna take to turn independents away from Biden and towards the party fighting for the return of Trump?

Are independents just watching old Joe and waiting for the first slip up before deciding Republicans should be in charge?

And I wonder...are there a lot of rabid Trumpies among independents or is mainly a Republican thing?

A certain number of moderate Republicans are going to vote Democrat, third party, or not at all if the party continues it's worship of Trump.

It doesn't take much to swing some elections


Good coffee, good weed, and time on my hands...
Joined: May 2005
Posts: 43,901
Member
CHB-OG
OP Offline
Member
CHB-OG
Joined: May 2005
Posts: 43,901
No announcement from the 100 Republicans. I-should have known they are cowards and nothing will be done. They'll stay put with the thugs that support Trump and suffer in silence.

Hmm


Contrarian, extraordinaire


Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 11,095
Likes: 3
veteran
Offline
veteran
Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 11,095
Likes: 3
Patience. These things don't happen overnight. I bet they are talking to Liz.


God sent Trump.......because God was out of locusts.
Joined: Sep 2019
Posts: 1,394
Likes: 2
member
Offline
member
Joined: Sep 2019
Posts: 1,394
Likes: 2
there's various reasons why independents would switch from voting for one party to the other which cause wave elections. Without doing research, I can just give a few off the top of the head reasons which vary from election to election.

From 1955-1994 the Democrats controlled the house, someone my again who lived through all 40 years never dreamed the GOP would ever control the House. It was just nature, Democrats had the house. For all but six of those years the Democrats controlled senate except from 1981-86. In fact the Democrats had control of the House in 58 of 62 years going back to FDR.

1994, the first wave election since 1948, The Republicans picked up 54 seats and control of the House for the first time in 40 years. I think 3 things, the Democrats passed the tax hike which raised the amount of social security that could be taxed for the federal income tax from 50% to 85%. Old folks votes. There was also the secret Hillary Clinton health care commission along with the banning of the so called assault rifles.

Back then probably like most Americans, Democrats also owned guns. But independents didn't like none of those.

2006, it wasn't in my opinion anything passed by the GOP controlled congress that made independents angry. It was independents like most Americans just became tired of GOP rule, tired of the wars, along with the recession taking hold. Whether it was the former or the latter that lead to a 33 house seat pick up and control, I'd say both. Bush just became unpopular, in came the Democrats and out went the Republicans.

2010, definitely the ACA. by an average of 55-40 most Americans opposed the ACA when it was first passed. leading to a 63 seat house seat gain for the GOP. The Democrats went directing against the wishes of most Americans and paid the price. The ACA remained very unpopular all through Obama. It took Trump to make it popular or for more Americans to become in favor than opposed. Without Trump, it probably still be very unpopular.

2018, Trump is the reason for the 44 seat pick up by the democrats. He was always unpopular, unliked by them even in 2016. He was still unliked by independents in 2020. In 2016, Trump did win the independent vote 46-42 with 12% voting third party against both Hillary and Trump. Add Hillary's 42% along with the 12% who voted third party against both Trump and Hillary, you have 54% voting against Trump. In 2018 Democratic congressional candidates won 54% of the independent vote, in 2020 Biden won 54% of the independent vote. 54% seems really constant.

BIden is still very popular among independents, but the Democratic controlled congress critters are slipping..Biden had a 55% overall approval rating from independents during the first week of February, he has a 53% approval today. Within the MOE of plus or minus 3 points. So no change.

Democratic congress critters have dropped 38% favorable the first week of February down to 29% today among independents. During the same time frame Republican congressional critters also dropped from 29% down to 25% today. Just keep in mind, independents always have very low or a very negative impression of congress regardless of who is in control.

Biden has continued to be popular with independents. Perhaps because he has stayed out of the news, out of the limelight or spot light. Besides he well liked by independents as a person which kind of puts a shield around him, but not around congress. Being liked as a person is very important when it comes to elections. Reagan, Bill Clinton, Obama were all well liked as a person among independents. They all won reelection even though their fellow party members in congress weren't and lost big time seats.

Being liked as a person saves the president, but not their seats in congress. Although Reagan was well liked, his party lost 26 seats in the house in 1982, Reagan was reelected in 1984 by a landslide. Bill Clinton lost 54 house seats in 1994, he won reelection in 1996 by 9 points but only gained 4 house seats. Clinton's popularity and likeability didn't include congressional Democrats. Obama lost 63 house seats in 2010, he won reelection fairly easily in 2012 but once again his likeability didn't include his party's congressional candidates, picking up 8 seats.

Another way to put it, perhaps likeability as a person can be tied to charisma of a president. Reagan, Bill Clinton, Obama were the most charismatic presidents since JFK. All remained popular among America as a whole. But their popularity didn't include congressional party members. One could say if something went wrong, they basically didn't get the blame, congress did. What all this means for 2022 remains to be seen. Especially among independents who are very finicky.


It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
Joined: Mar 2003
Posts: 7,526
Likes: 2
veteran
Offline
veteran
Joined: Mar 2003
Posts: 7,526
Likes: 2
I don't think you addressed the change in character of the GOP.

There can be no other conclusion regarding the new voting laws written by the Heritage Foundation passed by state houses, than it is overall restrictive and geared to disenfranchise a segment of the population which is thought to predominantly Democrat leaning. The Heritage Foundation is only interested in maintaining their hold on power, Republican power, hard conservative power for as long as possible. How do independents feel about that?

The Republican Party has for at least the past 50 years been the catchall for the disaffected bigots in America. The Party leadership has denied it but Mr Trump exposed their lies. The Republican Base is for the most part a bunch of bigots. They hate Muslims .... they hate non-heterosexuals ... they hate non-whites ... they hate Democrats ... gee, their hatred is simply unlimited. Issues don't really matter for these folks. How do independents feel about that?

The Republican Party has become a party who has denied everything. They deny the basic facts of reality. You may debate whether Mr Trump incited a crowd to attempt to overthrow the government but what can not be denied are the basic facts. Mr Trump invited the crowd to attend Jan 6. The people who planned bombs, attended in combat gear, prepared for an assault, etc would not have been there if not invited on Jan 6. The overall substance of Mr Trump's speech was not to march peacefully but to march on the Capitol and take back their country for Mr Trump. Republicans deny Mr Trump was involved. How do independents feel about that?

The Nazi and Communist parties elicited fealty to their leaders, not to their politics, and now we have the Republican Party posting a purity test on all members in good standing. They must pledge their fealty to Mr Trump. Republicans have now joined the once hated parties of fascist dictators. How do independents feel about that?


ignorance is the enemy
without equality there is no liberty
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 17,983
Likes: 4
Carpal Tunnel
Offline
Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 17,983
Likes: 4
Quote
there's various reasons why independents would switch from voting for one party to the other...

That's not what I asked. None of those past races had the same dynamics. This Trump thing is new territory.

In 2022 a lot of Republican candidates are going to be Trumpies.

I think it's not going to play well with a majority of independents.

Hell, it's already not playing well with a bunch of Republicans.


Good coffee, good weed, and time on my hands...
Joined: Sep 2019
Posts: 1,394
Likes: 2
member
Offline
member
Joined: Sep 2019
Posts: 1,394
Likes: 2
No doubt the Republican Party has a Trump problem. Normally it's the party in power that gets all or most of the attention, not the party out of power. So Trump still being around and calling the shots is indeed new territory. The republicans are still getting quite a lot of attention and none of it is good. This is new, the GOP moved on to fresh faces with new ideas after other presidential losses. After Romney, after McCain, after Dole, G.H.W. Bush, Ford etc. This is the first time in my memory that the GOP is sticking with a loser instead of moving on. Now Dewey may qualify as he was nominated twice and lost twice, Stevenson could also on the Democratic side. I remember the Eisenhower/Stevenson election of 1956 as that was when I first became interested in politics. Watching both conventions on TV.

I can take the numbers I have today from independents and tell you how I think the election will turnout. But tomorrow, I could have a whole set of different numbers which makes what I said today, irrelevant.

Have you ever heard of what I call rent a district? It's districts that are historical one party that for some reason the other party wins. One could say in 2010 the Democrats were really overextended by winning long held Republican districts in 2006 and 2008. That rubber band was all set to snap back to normalcy. I also think in 2018 the Democrats who picked up 44 seats were probably at least 20 seats overextended. The fact that the GOP picked up 13 of those seats during a presidential year and not a midterm, was a shock. At least to me. But this is good news for the democrats as the normal adjustment back to historical standards has been mostly accomplished.

Now those were on the old district map, not the new one which has yet to be drawn. So no house predictions. Senate wise, today it looks as if 29 out of 34 senate races are fairly solid or likely to stay with the party that holds those senate seats today. NH and Georgia are the two Democratic seats at risk of switching, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Wisconsin are the three Republican seats.

How does one work the Trump factor in for the midterms of 2022? Will he still be a factor or will he fade? Independents, The numbers show independents are souring on Democratic congressional critters, but not on Biden. Numbers don't tell me why, just that they are. It could be something as simple as independents don't like Pelosi, 30% favorable/60% unfavorable. She's the face of Democratic congressional critters and gets a lot of face time. McCarthy, he's relatively unknown among independents, 30% of independents haven't even heard of him. But his numbers 24% favorable, 45% unfavorable.

McConnell, independents really dislike him, 21% favorable, 61% unfavorable vs. Schumer's 30% favorable, 53% unfavorable. Then there is the congressional favorable/unfavorable as a whole. Democrats in congress 29% favorable/59% unfavorable, Republicans 28% favorable/60% unfavorable. Generic congressional poll which to me is meaningless since it's nationwide and the new districts hasn't been drawn yet, but others put a lot of stock in it. 47% Democratic, 42% Republican.

I've found out one thing that is relevant, the more face time Trump gets, the more independents favor Democrats. The more face time Pelosi gets, independents the less independents favor Democrats and move toward the GOP. The more face time McConnell gets, the more independents favor Democrats. Schumer has stayed quiet which could be why at the moment it looks like the democrats will pick up a couple of seats in the senate.

Strange how face time and media attention seems to work against who gets the face time and media attention the most. At least with independents. Biden, has stayed basically hidden, he doing great among independents, Pelosi has had more face time, she's doing horribly along with McConnell. Isn't it interesting that Pelosi and McConnell have basically the same positive/negative numbers among independents. One the face of the House, the other the face of the senate.

Independents are definitely a finicky sort of bunch.


It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 17,983
Likes: 4
Carpal Tunnel
Offline
Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 17,983
Likes: 4
Quote
Isn't it interesting that Pelosi and McConnell have basically the same positive/negative numbers among independents. One the face of the House, the other the face of the senate.

So why do you imagine that the minority leader is the face of the senate?

McConnel is the face of the Republican Party. And it isn't a pretty face. Even Republicans don't like it.

Republican success in 2022 depends on perceived Democratic failure or overreach. Many Republicans who have "left" the party will surely return, they are conservatives after all. But I suspect a few MAGA candidates will fall in the midterms....or at least there is some chance they will.

I'm not tracking races or polls, I'm watching the mood of the nation...It's currently "hopeful".,,,

I aint sayin' nuthin' gonna happen to change that, but the crowd seems pretty benevolent right now. Republicans are going to have to make America angry at Joe Biden and the Democrats if they hope to gain seats.

Usually it's easy...

I'm just wondering what it's gonna be, what the straw will be that breaks the 50% camel's back.


Given the current iteration of the Republican Party.


Good coffee, good weed, and time on my hands...
Page 2 of 3 1 2 3

Link Copied to Clipboard
Who's Online Now
0 members (), 53 guests, and 3 robots.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Newest Members
KevFilthyANML, Risky, Gladys G. Jackson, Beach Baby, Superfly
6,296 Registered Users
Forum Statistics
Forums61
Topics17,157
Posts308,451
Members6,296
Most Online294
Dec 6th, 2017
Powered by UBB.threads™ PHP Forum Software 7.7.5
(Release build 20201027)
Responsive Width:

PHP: 7.4.20 Page Time: 0.016s Queries: 36 (0.003s) Memory: 3.0498 MB (Peak: 3.2528 MB) Data Comp: Zlib Server Time: 2021-06-18 22:12:59 UTC
Valid HTML 5 and Valid CSS