Today's Birthdays
There are no members with birthdays on this day.
Current Topics
Winning
by TatumAH - 12/09/21 04:44 AM
What's for dinner?
by TatumAH - 12/09/21 01:35 AM
The Drift, Thread Association Thread
by TatumAH - 12/08/21 10:29 PM
The US's future: The United States of Giiead
by pondering_it_all - 12/08/21 09:58 PM
lying on the internet
by pondering_it_all - 12/08/21 09:52 PM
A genuine clusterf***
by pondering_it_all - 12/08/21 09:33 PM
The Mueller Report
by rporter314 - 12/08/21 08:42 PM
A Fungus Amungus
by TatumAH - 12/08/21 03:56 PM
Denialism
by chunkstyle - 12/08/21 03:27 PM
"Mom, I think it's a boy."
by Ken Condon - 12/07/21 08:56 PM
A Musical Quiz
by Ken Condon - 12/07/21 06:29 PM
Coronavirus: The Plague of The 21st Century?
by TatumAH - 12/07/21 04:34 PM
RoundTable For Fall 2021
by pdx rick - 12/07/21 02:50 AM
Pacific Northwest Weather
by TatumAH - 12/07/21 02:45 AM
Beautiful, beautiful language...
by Greger - 12/06/21 05:04 PM
... doubt is our product...
by TatumAH - 12/04/21 08:13 PM
I’ll Buy That
by Greger - 12/01/21 07:22 PM
Popular Topics(Views)
9,697,657 my own book page
4,792,144 We shall overcome
3,881,784 Campaign 2016
3,539,764 Trump's Trumpet
2,804,734 3 word story game
Previous Thread
Next Thread
Print Thread
Rate Thread
Page 2 of 5 1 2 3 4 5
Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 11,664
Likes: 55
L
veteran
OP Offline
veteran
L
Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 11,664
Likes: 55
The take-away? Keep an ear peeled for the Music of Portention...


You never change things by fighting the existing reality.
To change something, build a new model that makes the old model obsolete.
R. Buckminster Fuller
Joined: May 2006
Posts: 4,387
Likes: 12
J
jgw Offline
old hand
Offline
old hand
J
Joined: May 2006
Posts: 4,387
Likes: 12
Yep, you are right. The real point, however, is all about inflation regardless of how high. We will know we have a really bad problem if any of our major bond holders start selling off our bonds. THEN we run for the hills! I suspect the real problem is that ANY inflation rings all sorts of bells. We will see. I can remember when we had interest rates at 10%. Inflation was brought under control and interest rates started down. The retired, who had invested their money in bank paper, were very upset....

Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 11,498
Likes: 72
veteran
Offline
veteran
Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 11,498
Likes: 72
We fret about our bonds, and the Chinese dumping them. But most US debt instruments are actually held by US citizens and US institutions. And people the world over want to buy US bonds and notes, because those are the safest investment in the world. If the Chinese dumped all their US debt quickly, it might depress the price. The people and institutions that bought it on the way down would be very happy within a few months, having acquired a discounted high-quality investment at the expense of China!

Don't forget, for every seller, there is a buyer who thinks they are getting a deal. The best deals are had when a seller is selling for some reason besides thinking the asset has reached maximum price.


We're flying electric helicopters on Mars yet you can't turn on your clothes dryer in Texas. That's because scientists are in charge of Mars, and Republicans are in charge of Texas.
Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 11,664
Likes: 55
L
veteran
OP Offline
veteran
L
Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 11,664
Likes: 55
Originally Posted by logtroll
How does this House of Illusion keep functioning?
My contextual curiosity continues to be aroused by the elephant and the 800 pound gorilla that are accepted as normal house guests - costs have increased by ten times in 50 years, and the national debt increases steadily in the realm of $trillions.

Why? Does it matter? What will happen?

Is the only play to keep one’s head down and focus on competing at gaming the system even though the casino is rotting away?

Inflation calculator


You never change things by fighting the existing reality.
To change something, build a new model that makes the old model obsolete.
R. Buckminster Fuller
Joined: May 2006
Posts: 4,387
Likes: 12
J
jgw Offline
old hand
Offline
old hand
J
Joined: May 2006
Posts: 4,387
Likes: 12
If the Chinese started selling our bonds the world would follow in a heartbeat and we would be in very deep doodoo.

Sorry, I'm a bit faithless................

Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 11,498
Likes: 72
veteran
Offline
veteran
Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 11,498
Likes: 72
Quote
the world would follow in a heartbeat

I doubt that very much. Even countries that don't like the US much buy US debt, and not so they can join some mass movement to destroy the US. Nobody likes China all that much, either. If China started dumping, then other people have to be buying. You can't sell something people don't want to buy. So China has to ask a much lower price to sell their US debt. Rich people and other countries buy $100 worth of bonds for $90. Once China is out of bonds to sell, the price goes back up to $100, because US debt is backed by the ability of the US government to collect taxes. China just gave 10% of it's US debt investment to everybody who bought those bonds. China is poorer and the buyers are richer.

US bonds have an intrinsic value floor because they pay competitive interest. Even if the price drops, owners don't have to sell and can keep on collecting that interest. Damaging the US by dumping their debt is not something China can do. Some moron demagogue like Trump could do it by refusing to honor US interest obligations, but that's not up to China.


We're flying electric helicopters on Mars yet you can't turn on your clothes dryer in Texas. That's because scientists are in charge of Mars, and Republicans are in charge of Texas.
Joined: May 2006
Posts: 4,387
Likes: 12
J
jgw Offline
old hand
Offline
old hand
J
Joined: May 2006
Posts: 4,387
Likes: 12
I hope you are right although I don't think its gonna happen. I watched a guy on TV this morning explain the why over the inflation concerns. Seems that a lot of prices are going up all over the world. He also said that will probably stop pretty soon but, in the meantime .....................

Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 11,498
Likes: 72
veteran
Offline
veteran
Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 11,498
Likes: 72
I'm not saying there won't be inflation. That's a pretty normal consequence of government spending a lot of money while lowering taxes. If you have a mortgage at 4% and there is 4.1% inflation for the year, you win!. I saw it coming from a mile away. That's exactly why I moved my Roth IRA all into stocks about a year ago. (Back when it looked like the end of the world and we were all going to die.)

But I am saying there will be no China sell-off, no "Deep Do-Do", no world-wide effort to drive the US government into bankruptcy, etc. Sure, people in other countries don't like what the US does sometimes, but they like China and Russia even less. Mongolia and Crimea are annexed occupied territories. Uighurs are being held in concentration camps.


We're flying electric helicopters on Mars yet you can't turn on your clothes dryer in Texas. That's because scientists are in charge of Mars, and Republicans are in charge of Texas.
Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 11,664
Likes: 55
L
veteran
OP Offline
veteran
L
Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 11,664
Likes: 55
My mind is still in the orbital realm on the concept of inflation (and debt, though it is so far a minor subject in this thread).

I’m getting the idea that inflation is a symptom of a flawed economic system, as there seems to be no intrinsic value in it. I have spent some time and effort searching for ‘what is the cause for inflation’, as in why does it exist, but the explanations I have found have all been narrow transactional descriptions.

None of that scratches the itch of what continually inflating prices really mean.


You never change things by fighting the existing reality.
To change something, build a new model that makes the old model obsolete.
R. Buckminster Fuller
Joined: May 2006
Posts: 4,387
Likes: 12
J
jgw Offline
old hand
Offline
old hand
J
Joined: May 2006
Posts: 4,387
Likes: 12
My thoughts are speculative and I am not sure about any of it. I used to be, then I went to predictit.org with ten dollars, I won some, lost some, and, in the end I lost it all. It was productive in that I learned that, basically, I didn't know sh*t (I was terribly upset for at least 5 minutes!)

I just don't do real good with prognostication (but do kinda admire that word). It would be interesting to rate prognostications here and see how good everybody's abilities in this regard. If somebody is right all the time we can all get rich!

I, for one, am holding my breath and would be delighted if somebody came along who could really do it!

Page 2 of 5 1 2 3 4 5

Link Copied to Clipboard
Who's Online Now
0 members (), 33 guests, and 1 robot.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Newest Members
SuZQ2, KevFilthyANML, Risky, Gladys G. Jackson, Beach Baby
6,297 Registered Users
Forum Statistics
Forums61
Topics17,260
Posts313,200
Members6,297
Most Online294
Dec 6th, 2017
Powered by UBB.threads™ PHP Forum Software 7.7.5
(Release build 20201027)
Responsive Width:

PHP: 7.4.26 Page Time: 0.013s Queries: 36 (0.004s) Memory: 3.0310 MB (Peak: 3.2531 MB) Data Comp: Zlib Server Time: 2021-12-09 04:48:34 UTC
Valid HTML 5 and Valid CSS