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jgw #334290 05/25/21 12:02 AM
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JGW, you got me thinking, is there a way to find out if independents pay more attention to politics in general than do the party faithful? Perhaps, a shot in the dark would be to compare the don't know/no opinion column of independents to those who identify with the political parties.. This is just the don't know/no opinion column. This isn't the favorable/unfavorable columns, just the Don't know/no opinion.

Biden D 4, R 4, I 8
Trump D 3, R 4, I 6

Everyone should know who the above are. Now to continue with congressional leaders.

Pelosi D 11, R 7 I 19
McCarthy D 24, R 27, I 38
McConnell D 16, R 17, I 18
Schumer D 21, R 16 I 31

Interesting that those who stay in the news, who have the most face time, Pelosi and McConnell have way fewer Don't know/no opinions than McCarthy and Schumer. Being they get little face time, chances are independents don't know who these later two are.

I'm not sure what the above proves, if it proves anything.


It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
jgw #334291 05/25/21 12:15 AM
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The trend toward independents rising is there, from 30% in 2006 up to 41% today. Most Americans want the two major parties to work together and compromise.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/220265/americans-favor-compromise-things-done-washington.aspx

I wonder if the rise in independent has something to do with public trust in government? This is prior to Biden, during Trump. But there seems to be a correlation.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/246371...nt=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication


It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
Greger #334300 05/25/21 05:08 PM
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Which is why its been going on for a long time. Just happens more during times of unrest and political fighting.

jgw #334303 05/25/21 07:00 PM
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What I noticed, trust in government has so much to do with who is president. During Bill Clinton Democrats trust of government was in the 60's, Republicans dropped into the 40's. During G.W. Bush, democratic trust dropped from the 60's down into the 30's while Republican trust stayed around 80%. Enter Obama, Democratic trust in government rose as high as 74% while Republicans dropped into the 30's. Along comes Trump, Democrats drop down into the 20's, Republicans climb to as high as 71% while most of the time being in the 60's.

Independents has been on a steady decline regardless of who was/is president. From 68% in 2001 down to 28% in 2020. Gallup has no recent figures during Biden. Pew Research pretty much mirrors Gallup, but doesn't do independents. Pew however does carry it from 1 Dec 1958 through 11 Apr 2021.

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/05/17/public-trust-in-government-1958-2021/

According to Pew, as of 11 only 24% of all Americans trust their government to who what's right most or all of the time.

It's an interesting graph, public trust in the 70's until 1964 than a decline to 26% in 1980, a slight rebound in Trust during Reagan and Bush I, then another decline during Bill Clinton's first term, then starting to rebound during his second and Bush II's first term/ Then another decline to around 24% where it's pretty much remained within a point or two either way from Bush II right to Biden on 11 Apr 2021.

Trust in government is always higher for the party that holds the presidency and lower for the party which doesn't. It's been that way ever since 1 Dec 1958 through today.


It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
jgw #334322 05/26/21 06:10 PM
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I am not sure that Independent decline has been a result of Trump hate which drove some independents into the Democratic party to fight Trump. Perhaps the same happened to fight the Democrats as well.

On reflection I may be right or I may not be but its probable, I think. It kinda folks taking sides. The problem, I suspect, is defining the sides as, I think, anything one side says about the other just stirs the pot and nothing really changes.

I base this on absolutely nothing and suspect your probably have more fact than I and admit that I may be completely wrong. It does seem, now, that the number of independents is growing, however.

jgw #334323 05/26/21 08:50 PM
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There's no doubt about the number of independents growing, from 30% in 2006 up to 41% today. The question I have about the rise, have those who left both major parties changed their voting habits or have they kept them only under a new name?

We've had some wild swings in how independents vote in the past, 2006 they went Democratic by 18 points only to go Republican by 19 points in 2010. That's a swing of 37 points in 4 years. Now with independents grown the swing was Trump by 4 in 2016, Biden by 13 in 2020, a swing of 17 points in 4 years.

Too small a sample to say anything for sure. It's very possible that those who left the GOP still are voting for Republicans as are those who left the Democratic Party still voting Democratic. Only now they call themselves independents. History doesn't help me on this.

For the time being, I'm going to assume for the time being that those who left both major parties are continuing to vote for the party they left candidates. Voting habits. But you know what they say about assuming and what that can make you.


It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
jgw #334326 05/27/21 05:40 PM
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I think independents are exactly what the name implies - Independent! They might have druthers but they are not, I think, dedicated to one party or the other. Perhaps they are voting for the candidate and screw the party? I really have no idea and, I suspect, neither does anybody else.

I consider myself, for instance, an independent. I also tend toward the left a bit but am not really dedicated to that direction when the candidate on that side is utterly wrong (for me). Sometimes I might even vote for nobody in a given position if they are both rotters.

I have, incidentally, never voted in an elections wherein you are forced to vote for a given party if you are signed up in that party but I think there are instances where that actually happens. I am in Washington state and we get to vote for whoever we want. We also decide who gets to run in the run-off by determining who the two top vote getters in the primary were. This sometimes means that both candidates, in the runoff, might actually be running in the same election! (this one has amused more often than not)

jgw #334329 05/27/21 06:13 PM
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I always preferred the name swing voter to independent. Mainly because they can swing back and forth, from one party to the other and yes, toward third parties if both major party candidate disgust them. 12% of independents did vote third party in 2016 which was 9 million voters. I was one of them. No lesser of two evils, no least worst candidate among the two major parties, no voting for the candidate I want the least to lose, not win, but least to lose. I voted against both.

Perhaps non-affiliated voter rather than independent. I do believe independents vote the candidates much more than the party. History has shown that 92% of the time Republicans and democrats vote for their party's candidates regardless of who they are. I use to call them mindless robots, but further thinking, it probably is more of an ideological grouping of more or less like minded folks. I also said that voting based on just the R and or the D means on average you're voting for the best candidate half the time and the worst candidate half the time.

I also think independents are much more influenced by the personality and charisma of the candidates. A beauty or popularity contest more or less. They went for Reagan twice by huge margins, Reagan probably the most charismatic candidate since JFK. They went for Bill Clinton twice, another charismatic candidate over the less charismatic G.H.W. Bush and Dole. For Obama who was also charismatic.

Then there was G.W. Bush, not charismatic in my book, but a down home southern, country boy more or less. He won independents twice, over two statues, Gore and Kerry. Another down home country boy, Jimmy Carter defeated a stoic Ford in 1976, only to lose to Mr. Charismatic, Mr. Ronald Reagan in 1980.

For me, Trump and Hillary Clinton were about as uncharismatic as it gets. I phrase it, Rude, obnoxious vs. aloof, elitist, know it all. Rude, Obnoxious eek out a 4 point win among independents with as I stated before 12% voting against both candidates. 2020, rude, obnoxious lost to the bland, old, uninspiring Biden by 13 points which a lot. It was the disliked of and being against Trump than I would say being for Biden. But Biden was a safe candidate, a moderate democrat, nothing there to get any independent extremely upset or perhaps angry.

My take from all of this, want to win the independent vote, choose a charismatic candidate. I would say some vote the issues, but most vote the candidates based on their perceptions of the candidates.

Last edited by perotista; 05/27/21 06:35 PM.

It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
jgw #334336 05/28/21 06:20 PM
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I think you missed one group. Those are those who want desperately to win and vote the ticket because they literally hate the opposition. When that happens I tend to believe that nobody wins. Right now there are a lot of voters that fall into that camp. Nothing counts except to win and they are at war!

Right now, I fear, there is a lot of that going around - on BOTH sides! Sanity, and common sense, have taken flight and we are all going to pay the price down the road.

jgw #334337 05/28/21 06:38 PM
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If you want charisma look to Hollywood. Trump and Reagan were stars before they were politicians.

Maybe we could hire George Clooney to run. There's at least some substance there, unlike the other two.

Mattt Gaetz has announced his intention to run in 2024, plenty of charisma there...he charmed the pants right off some children. Will independents scramble to vote for him?

Do independents vote for looks? AOC is, I think, without a doubt the prettiest face in DC and definitely the best knockers. Is that what they're looking for?

Democrats will have Biden or Harris or both up for reelection. There isn't going to be a lot of choosing on the part of the Democrats and likely no primary to speak of running up to 2024.

Republicans will have Trump or DeSantis. You pick the most charismatic of that batch for the win?


Good coffee, good weed, and time on my hands...
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