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jgw #334338 05/28/21 07:10 PM
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Ah, the anti vote. 24% of all those who voted in 2020 voted against the other party's candidate. So the anti vote made up almost a quarter of all who voted in 2020. They didn't vote for any candidate, just against one. Of those 24% voting against a candidate, 68% voted against Trump, 30% against Biden. You had approximately 160 million people vote in 2020, which means 38.4 million voted against a candidate and not for a candidate. This means Biden received 26.1 million votes that were against trump, but not necessarily for Biden. Trump received 11.5 million votes that were against Biden, but not actually for Trump.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results

That is if my math is correct. You take away the anti voters, count only those who voted for a candidate, not against, you'd have Trump winning the for a candidate vote 62.7 million to 55.2 million who voted for Biden.

What this shows is the anti vote helped Biden hugely. It also shows how disliked Trump was. So be thankful for the anti vote.

As for being charismatic, I consider Reagan as being very charismatic, Trump no. But then again it may depend on how one defines charisma. The definition, exercising a compelling charm which inspires devotion in others. I see a lot of charm in Reagan, Bill Clinton and Obama, none in Trump. None in Hillary, Kerry, Gore, Dole for that matter.

We had elections where neither major party candidates were charismatic. Bush I vs. Dukakis, Nixon vs. Humphrey are two. Carter vs. Ford, Carter wan't charimatic, but he had that down home country boy image about him, same with Bush II. That made them in my opinion more likable to the voter than the stoic Ford or the statues of Gore and Kerry. But that is just my opinion.

Biden or Harris vs. Trump, easy. Biden and or Harris, Trump is the most disliked presidential candidate in our history or since Gallup and Pew Research began keeping track of this back in 1956. DeSantis, I don't know much about him and never seen him on TV. You'd know more about his charisma than I. I'd say 2024 all depends on what happens between today and Nov 2024. If inflation continues to rise, that gives the GOP an advantage if they stay away from Trump. Then there are any unforeseen major events and or happenings that always seem to occur.

Here's the major party presidential candidates favor/unfavorable ratings since 1956.

Highest to lowest favorable/unfavorable ratings of each major party presidential candidate.
Favorable/unfavorable
1956 Eisenhower 84/12%
1964 LBJ 81/13%
1976 Carter 81/16%
1960 JFK 80/14%
1960 Nixon 79/16%
1968 Nixon 79/22%
1976 Ford 79/20%
1972 Nixon 76/21%
1968 Humphrey 72/28%
1984 Reagan 70/30%
1980 Carter 68/32%
1984 Mondale 66/34%
1980 Reagan 64/31%
1992 Bill Clinton 64/33%
2008 Obama 62/35%
2012 Obama 62/37%
1956 Stevenson 61/31%
2004 G.W. Bush 61/39%
2008 McCain 60/35%
1992 G.H.W. Bush 59/40%
2000 G.W. Bush 58/38%
2004 Kerry 57/40%
1996 Bill Clinton 56/42%
1988 G.H.W. Bush 56/39%
2000 Gore 55/43%
2012 Romney 55/43%
1972 McGovern 55/41%
1996 Dole 54/45%
1988 Dukakis 53/42%
2020 Biden 52/46%
1964 Goldwater 43/47%
2020 Trump 43/56%
2016 Hillary Clinton 38/56%
2016 Donald Trump 36/60%


It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
jgw #334339 05/28/21 09:20 PM
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Originally Posted by jgw
I think you missed one group. Those are those who want desperately to win and vote the ticket because they literally hate the opposition. When that happens I tend to believe that nobody wins. Right now there are a lot of voters that fall into that camp. Nothing counts except to win and they are at war!

Right now, I fear, there is a lot of that going around - on BOTH sides! Sanity, and common sense, have taken flight and we are all going to pay the price down the road.

Remind me of a time when sanity and common sense were the overarching principles of government?

Both sides? I've got no love for Democrats but only one side has gone batshite crazy. The other is trying to move forward some much needed legislation.


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jgw #334342 05/28/21 11:59 PM
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I spent a couple of hours trying to research the anti vote. CNN exit polls answered 2020, 24% anti vote, 2016, 25% anti vote. Gallup answered 2012 with 11% anti voters. Then I hit a dead wall as none of the previous exit polls asked that question. I would assume 11% give or take is/was basically the norm going back. But you know what they say about assumptions.

I think common sense left the political arena in the 1990's or early 2000's. Lott and Daschle were replaced by McConnell and Reid which I classify as party firsters, where each would automatically oppose anything from the other party. I think the impeachment of Bill Clinton and the introduction of the Hastert rule was the beginning of the lack of common sense. Others may see things differently, but it was with the take over of the two parties by McConnell and Reid that cooperation between them stopped, straight party line voting began in earnest. But this is just me.

I think Biden, Manchin, etc are trying to bring back cooperation and common sense, but I don't think they'll be successful as long as McConnell remains.


It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
Greger #334351 05/29/21 05:02 PM
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Charismatic - exercising a compelling charm which inspires devotion in others.

You seem to think everybody is charismatic - I don't, Last night I watched Bill Maher tear into the thought of even electing an actor and, I think, he did a pretty good job. You can probably find in under "real time with bill maher" on you tube.

Anyway, there are a lot of people that confuse tv land, and movie land, with reality. They say that there were a lot of people who wanted to take a trip to a tv land perfect black country and some got angry when they were told it wasn't real. These people are, I suspect, the same people who thought that trump's show was real too, even though it wasn't and he has been an incredible loser his entire life. His show was a success because the TV folks ran the show! There are a lot of people who don't even think he is really rich. The simple fact of his known debt is reality and that debt is HUGE!

As an aside it seems that they are now going to go after Trump for being not only criminal but a practicing gangster! One wonders how that is going to work out.

Anyway, I think that here are more people than you think who are quite aware of what is real and what is not. Those who do not are simply more vocal in their constant efforts to find them that agree with them due to their loneliness.

Sorrry, I just don't believe them, or your belief that they are some kind of majority. They are just a sad group of idiots who reality will eventually set right.

Incidentally, Mattt Gaetz is one of the least appealing of the entire group and only appeals to them that are desparate to hear about THEIR reality.

jgw #334357 05/30/21 01:10 PM
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I should be more specific. When I talk about folks voting for the more charismatic candidate, I'm referring to those who aren't affiliate with any party, the less to non-partisans, swing voters, independents. Those who don't pay much if any attention to the daily grind of politics coming out of Washington. Only when an election nears do their interest peak.

Let's face it, Republicans and democrats, the party faithful would vote for a 20 ton rock if that was their candidate. Well, at least 92% of them based on historical average. Now there's a difference in the type of charisma, TV and Movie stars have their own type, but I don't think would appeal to this group of swing voters, the non-affiliated when it comes to elected office.

In other words, a political candidate exhibiting charisma in his field is completely different from a sports star, TV personality etc. Charisma in their's. There has to be a certain political savvyness in any candidate along with being charismatic for it to work. It has to in my opinion help a candidate likableness. Being charismatic certainly helped Reagan, Bill Clinton and Obama. It help JFK in 1960, I don't think JFK would have ever beat Nixon then if it wasn't for his charisma, his personality.

Trump may have had all the charisma in the world in the TV reality show field. But he had none when it came to politics. He was that 20 ton rock only being love and adored by those in his party. Not independents, the non-affiliated, swing voters, they disliked him.


It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
jgw #334361 05/30/21 06:50 PM
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Trump is a different sort of thing. He had a successful TV show for something like 11/13 years! The people who watched him were unable to understand that they were watching something happening in TV Land and wasn't real and there were MILLIONS OF THEM! All they really understood was that he was incredibly rich and incredibly clever and he wanted to 'help' them to be as successful as he was. He got to present himself once a week for all those years! On top of that TV folks loved him. If they could get him on their network they were assured of watchers which, in turn continued the Trump myth - because he made money for them! They even admitted that! In other words Trump was a dream that gifted us with his reality. It thrilled his fans and the TV folk.

I am talking about a man that has a debt of something like 4 billion dollars, A man who has failed at just about everything but the business daddy made and, wait for it, POLITICS! Does it surprise anybody that a really good gaslighting liar did well in POLITICS? Those responsible were TV folk but they don't accept that. They blame it on their audiences.

I am writing this because this is really not about politics - its about Trump and the TV industry. The subject of this topic is supposed to be 'Social Media'. I would submit that TV itself is a 'Social Media' and those taking part in this particular media is the TV audience!

My suggestion to any of you who watch TV remember that they are actually watching TV Land which is NOT reality. Next time you are watching a TV show, and somebody in the room points out something wrong about something they are watching because it doesn't jibe with their reality somebody else should point out that they are watching TV Land! ANYTHING can happen in TV Land and its NOT REAL! I watch a lot of TV and know its not real! There are, however, many who think it is real. We have problems, perhaps the real way to fix the problems is to ban TV! People are already thinking of doing something about the 'other Social Media' perhaps the whole of TV needs a few rules as well. How about starting with putting up an announcement, at the beginning of every show and movie which says; "THIS IS NOT REAL!"

Last edited by jgw; 05/31/21 05:00 PM.
perotista #334365 05/31/21 02:41 AM
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at least 92% of them based on historical average.

So that tells me that 8% of them are swing voters. Pretty good size number where election results are concerned and well above the margin of error.,,,


Good coffee, good weed, and time on my hands...
jgw #334369 05/31/21 12:20 PM
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It's definitions and columns that folks are grouped in. When asked which party to you associate, identify or affiliated yourself with, Democrat, Republican, independent, other. that determines which column one falls into. Then the second question, who did you vote for. So it comes out on average 92% of those who say they're Republicans and Democrats vote for their candidate. Sometimes more and sometimes less. Only 89% of self identified voted for Hillary while 95% voted for Biden. Swing voters have their own column. By contrast 88% of republicans voted for Trump in 2016, 94% for Trump in 2020.

You're absolutely correct, but that 8% isn't identified as swing voters, just party faithful who didn't vote for their party's candidates. Semantics, possible and probably so. Now these are presidential election figures. There's also nothing saying that the 5% of Democrats who didn't vote for Biden, didn't vote Democratic down ballot. We don't know as the exit polls, didn't break it down that far.

Numbers are interesting, they don't provide all the answers, but probably do for most or a good majority of the answers.


It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
perotista #334373 05/31/21 04:31 PM
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Numbers are interesting, they don't provide all the answers, but probably do for most or a good majority of the answers.

Polls predict the present...they tell you nothing of the future and by the time you read them they are history.

Too much is often extrapolated from too little. But they are useful tools and I appreciate your dedication to keeping up with them because they do provide answers and they document trends.


Good coffee, good weed, and time on my hands...
jgw #334374 05/31/21 05:20 PM
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Sorry, party or independent - it really doesn't matter to any of the Trump folk. They are voting for the myth! The myth has now taken over the entire Republican party! These people simply cannot understand that Trump is a TV myth! They cannot tell the difference. If you were to ask them if they watched him on TV they would, proudly, say that they did. They simply cannot understand what has happened to them! Its actually pretty interesting as well as sad. Over 11 or 13 years they have been converted! They got to actually watch their lord and master in action and they were convinced. The really interesting thing is that his last season was an absolute flop as he had lost the majority of his supporters which was why his show was cancelled. BUT the true believers continued to watch him every chance they got! This was widely reported and the heads of TV proudly stated that he was a real moneymaker for them as he still had admirers left.

Those believing in Trump souls watched him every chance they had! If virtually any religion had a chance to pound their belief into an audience whilst entertaining they would have gotten exactly the same response. Many are doing exactly that, ie. preaching to the believers and asking for donations. Just like Trump does, right now!

I think the trick in dealing with Trump is to first understand that what he does is flat out exactly what the evangelical TV preachers do every week. Trump is, basically following the evangelical TV preacher show plan and he has the worshipers to prove it! Praise be! The only real difference is that he is not teaching virtues so much as pure greed and he is pulling it off! Hell, as far as I can tell he is converting evangelicals to his personal religion!

Its of passing interest that several evangelicals have abandoned their support for somebody I suspect they think is actually the devil! They can't say that because it would cost them believers! They don't do that with their so called competitors and the're not going to do it to Trump. I suspect they don't because its not entertaining and would cost them believers and money to support their private airplanes, big houses, etc.

The way to deal with Trump, I suspect, is to treat him, exactly as anybody would treat the devil!

Last edited by jgw; 06/01/21 05:43 PM.
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