Today's Birthdays
There are no members with birthdays on this day.
Current Topics
Mountain Meadows Massacre
by pdx rick - 10/19/21 01:55 AM
Where did this car thing start?
by Mellowicious - 10/19/21 01:00 AM
Gerrymandering
by perotista - 10/19/21 12:19 AM
RoundTable For Fall 2021
by pdx rick - 10/18/21 09:56 PM
Who killed General Colin Powell?
by TatumAH - 10/18/21 09:20 PM
A Musical Quiz
by TatumAH - 10/18/21 09:01 PM
What about the latest Catholic Church fiasco in France?
by pondering_it_all - 10/18/21 08:35 PM
What % of humanity is batsh!t crazy?
by pondering_it_all - 10/18/21 08:33 PM
Southwest, American among Texas businesses defying governor
by pondering_it_all - 10/18/21 08:24 PM
Winning
by perotista - 10/18/21 07:03 PM
Carbon Sequestration
by TatumAH - 10/18/21 05:53 PM
A Question of Culture
by Mellowicious - 10/18/21 02:54 PM
Mobile sign-in issues
by pdx rick - 10/18/21 03:20 AM
Biden Administration Threads not in Current Topics
by Jeffery J. Haas - 10/18/21 03:10 AM
Divorce: American Style
by pdx rick - 10/17/21 01:58 PM
Arizona Audit/Recount 2020 election
by rporter314 - 10/16/21 05:23 PM
opening schools
by Greger - 10/12/21 12:33 PM
Lyrics
by pondering_it_all - 10/10/21 09:04 PM
Miss Navaho Nation
by logtroll - 10/10/21 02:53 PM
Popular Topics(Views)
9,574,977 my own book page
4,722,874 We shall overcome
3,767,208 Campaign 2016
3,448,268 Trump's Trumpet
2,715,637 3 word story game
Previous Thread
Next Thread
Print Thread
Rate Thread
Page 2 of 4 1 2 3 4
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 18,332
Likes: 36
Carpal Tunnel
Offline
Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 18,332
Likes: 36
I aint exactly part of the democratic base.

But I still maintain that many quietly voted for Biden and for Republicans down ballot. That explains it handily. It's either that or the election really was rigged and Trump is our rightful ruler.

Campaign rhetoric is the most ignored speech presented by the media. Slogans, claims and counterclaims, bloviation and name calling, socialists and fascists and racists and sexual harrassment allegations.

Defund the Police was only one of many of hundreds of things that churned through the endless news feed.

The one overarching issue in 2020 was Donald Trump. Everything else was fluff.

2020 was a moratorium on Donald trump. Donald Trump is the answer to any mysteries surrounding that election. From his own election down to the village dog catcher it was all about Trump.


Good coffee, good weed, and time on my hands...
Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 11,371
Likes: 55
veteran
Offline
veteran
Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 11,371
Likes: 55
Trump lost because he pissed off enough people. But the incumbent Republican congressmen did not. Up until the election, those guys were mostly just what you would expect of Republicans. It's only after Trump lost that so many of them went batsh#t crazy. If the election happened again on January 20th, I bet very few of Trump's defenders would have been reelected. In the few special elections since January 6th, Democrats seem to have a huge advantage. It will be interesting to see who gets indicted and if voters remember such behavior in 2022.


We're flying electric helicopters on Mars yet you can't turn on your clothes dryer in Texas. That's because scientists are in charge of Mars, and Republicans are in charge of Texas.
Joined: Sep 2019
Posts: 1,617
Likes: 10
member
Offline
member
Joined: Sep 2019
Posts: 1,617
Likes: 10
I agree that Trump was the over riding issue. I don't however looking at the total results think it was about Trump all the way down to dog catcher. Nationally it certainly was. Biden received 51.4% of the total vote to Trump's 46.9%, almost identical to his 2016 total of 46.1%. In 2016 we had 6% of the electorate vote third party, the whole electorate, not just independents. In 2020 was was cut to 1.7%. Almost all off those who voted third party against both Trump and Clinton in 2016 went to Biden in 2020. This much is clear.

Then as you stated, a lot of them who voted for Biden to get rid of Trump ended up voting Republican down ballot. Whereas Trump received 46.9% of the total vote, Republican congressional candidates 48.0%, Republican senators 51.4% not counting the Georgia runoffs which took place in January, in the governor races Republicans received 52.4%. I don't have any figures on state legislatures, but the GOP did pick up 2.

Trump was the low man on the totem pole. That should tell the Republican Party something, they must be blind as a bat or worse for not seeing this. I never gave the total results much of a thought, although I knew them. It seems the anti-Trump vote was big at the presidential level. But not as big, less of a factor as one went down ballot as the Republican share of the vote increased.

This has me wondering if I may have to re-calibrate my model for the midterms. That the Trump factor may not be as big as I originally believed. I'll have to do some heavy contemplating on that.

There is the 6% who voted third party in 2016 which fell to 1.7% in 2020. which means 3.5 of that 6% went to Biden, 0,8 to Trump with the remaining 1.7 voting third party.

Perhaps it's something as simple as some folks not liking Trump, but still adhered to the republican philosophy, hence their vote for Biden, then voting GOP down ballot. maybe I'm making this way too complicated for my own good.


It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
Joined: Sep 2019
Posts: 1,617
Likes: 10
member
Offline
member
Joined: Sep 2019
Posts: 1,617
Likes: 10
Trump may have just switched North Carolina's 2022 senate race from toss up to lean or perhaps even likely Democratic with his endorsement of a candidate in the GOP primary that can't win statewide.

From the Article: Donald Trump just threw NC’s U.S. Senate race into chaos. Democrats should be delighted

But, for good measure, he made news in a Trumpian way by walking into the event and effectively flipping over the political tables of his North Carolina Republican hosts. Trump created chaos in the Republican race for the 2022 U.S. Senate nomination by using the occasion to endorse the candidacy of U.S. Rep. Ted Budd, arguably the least likely of the top three GOP Senate candidates to be able to win a statewide race.

https://news.yahoo.com/donald-trump-just-threw-nc-193901995.html

Trump, the gift that just keeps on giving for the Democrats.

North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are three states currently that have Republican senators that look very switchable. With Toomey's retirement in Pennsylvania that state is lean Democratic, Burr is retiring in North Carolina which made NC a tossup. But if the GOP nominates Budd, NC becomes either lean or likely Democratic. Wisconsin even with Johnson running for reelection, is a lean Democratic race.

In NH, Democrat Hassan is safe unless challenged by Republican Gov. Sununu which would make that race a tossup. Georgia, leans Democratic with Warnock, but if Herschel Walker enters the race as Trump has been pushing him, Georgia then goes from lean Democratic to lean Republican. All the other senate races are safe for which party that holds them at this time.


It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 18,332
Likes: 36
Carpal Tunnel
Offline
Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 18,332
Likes: 36
Quote
Perhaps it's something as simple as some folks not liking Trump, but still adhered to the republican philosophy

Occam's Razor is a useful tool when you want to eliminate some pointless speculation. A lot of Republicans still adhere to the Republican philosophy...Donald Trump does not.

A womanizer, a draft dodger, a former Democrat, an autocrat, a bully, and an all 'round jerk.

They fielded a horrible candidate in 2016 then won on a fluke. He was a lousy president who sowed division withe very word he spoke or tweeted, he endorsed violence against his political enemies and even within his own party.

I'm not sure why it surprises you that some Republicans didn't vote for him...


Good coffee, good weed, and time on my hands...
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 18,332
Likes: 36
Carpal Tunnel
Offline
Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 18,332
Likes: 36
Elections are about turnout.
In the end everyone who turned out to vote at all came to vote for or against Trump.
They also checked the boxes on the down ballot candidates. But that aint why they were there.

America was sick of Trump.

Democrats, independents AND Republicans.


Good coffee, good weed, and time on my hands...
Joined: Sep 2019
Posts: 1,617
Likes: 10
member
Offline
member
Joined: Sep 2019
Posts: 1,617
Likes: 10
According to CNN exit polls 94% of Republicans voted for Trump, 6% for Biden. Republicans made up 35% of those who turned out to vote. 94% of democrats voted for Biden, 5% for Trump, 1% third party, Democrats made up 37% of those who actually turned out to vote. In 2020 both major parties voted for their candidates 2 points higher than the historical average of 92%. Outside of the higher voter turnout for the Democrats, the percentages were almost identical when it came to voting for their presidential candidates.

And yes, 2020 was all about Trump. He was the driving force.

Down ballot, congressional, 95% of both Republicans and Democrats who turnout to vote voted for their party's congressional candidates.

Which brings me to the big difference between presidential and down ballot congressional. Independents, swing voters. They made up 25% of all those who turnout to vote. They went for Biden 54-41 with 5% voting third party. However, down ballot, these swing voters did go for the Democratic congressional candidates, but by a much lower 50-48 margin. Which I equate to the Republicans being able to pick up 13 house seats last year.

Republican congressional candidates did 7 points better among independents, swing voters than Trump did. Probably showing their dislike of Trump, but not necessarily the Republican Party. Or perhaps it was their distrust of the congressional democrats that resulted in those independents who voted for Biden, voting Republican down ballot. Or perhaps both or perhaps dumb slogans like Defund the Police. I just had to throw that in there.

I'd say Biden was pretty much immune to that, he benefited from not being Trump. From looking at Biden's overall job approval, I'd say he's still benefiting from not being Trump.


It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 18,332
Likes: 36
Carpal Tunnel
Offline
Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 18,332
Likes: 36
You should find it surprising that 6% of Republican registered voters voted for Biden. We can only guess how many held their noses and voted for Trump anyway.

The majority of them were befuddled by the lies.

The only poll that counts says America was sick of Trump.

Quote
Republicans made up 35% of those who turned out to vote...
Democrats made up 37% of those who turned out to vote.

As I said, it's all about turnout. Turn those numbers around and it woulda went the other way.

Independents also came out in slightly higher numbers for Biden.,,


Good coffee, good weed, and time on my hands...
Joined: Sep 2019
Posts: 1,617
Likes: 10
member
Offline
member
Joined: Sep 2019
Posts: 1,617
Likes: 10
That's been pretty much the historical average. 6% of one party voting for the other party's presidential candidate. 92% of Republicans and Democrats, both parties historically vote for their party's presidential candidates.

We had 94% of both Republicans and Democrats vote for their candidates in 2020.
2016 was a bit off skelter as 89% of Democrats voted for Clinton, 88% of Republicans for Trump. 8% of both parties voted for the other party's candidate
2012 it was 93% of Republicans voting for Romney, 92% of Democrats voting for Obama
.
2008 it was 89% of democrats voting for Obama and 90% of Republicans for McCain.

You can take that way back, but 92% is the average. That is if you don't count 1992 and 1996 as Perot threw those numbers out the window.

So political party wise, 2020 was pretty average when it came to how the members of the two parties vote. The major difference was independents going for Biden 54-41 when they had gone for Trump in 2016 46-42 with 12% voting third party against both major party candidates. That's a 17 point swing, from a plus 4 to a minus 13 for Trump in back to back presidential election years.

staying with independents, we had a 12 point swing from 1996 to 2000 from democrat/Bill Clinton to Republican/G.W. Bush. but all of that pales to the 28 point swing from 1988 to 1992 from plus 14 points republican/Bush to minus 14 points republican or a plus 14 for Bill Clinton.

One never knows how independents will come down or how many will switch. The two major parties are steady as a rock, independents are all over the place. Even during the midterms independents fluctuate wildly. From independents voting 57-39 for Democratic congressional candidate in 2006 to independents voting 56-37 for Republican congressional candidates in 2010. That's going from a plus 18 for Democrats, 2006 to a minus 19 for Democrats in 2010. A swing of 37 points in a four year period.

Last edited by perotista; 06/16/21 07:28 PM.

It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 18,332
Likes: 36
Carpal Tunnel
Offline
Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 18,332
Likes: 36
Quote
So political party wise, 2020 was pretty average when it came to how the members of the two parties vote.

Pretty average...but a lot can happen within just a couple of percentage points.

A couple here, a couple there, and pretty soon the race is lost.

I don't deny that independents took Biden over the top...it was the anti-Trump sentiment that won out though...not excitement to elect Biden.

Independents broke for Biden by 12%...(?)

Sort of represents Americans without partisan preferences. Says to me that if political parties didn't exist, then Trump would've lost by 12% across the board.

About what you'd actually expect......


Good coffee, good weed, and time on my hands...
Page 2 of 4 1 2 3 4

Link Copied to Clipboard
Who's Online Now
0 members (), 31 guests, and 0 robots.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Newest Members
SuZQ2, KevFilthyANML, Risky, Gladys G. Jackson, Beach Baby
6,297 Registered Users
Forum Statistics
Forums61
Topics17,218
Posts311,227
Members6,297
Most Online294
Dec 6th, 2017
Powered by UBB.threads™ PHP Forum Software 7.7.5
(Release build 20201027)
Responsive Width:

PHP: 7.4.24 Page Time: 0.014s Queries: 36 (0.004s) Memory: 3.0378 MB (Peak: 3.2529 MB) Data Comp: Zlib Server Time: 2021-10-19 02:18:19 UTC
Valid HTML 5 and Valid CSS