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What's for dinner?
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Why and How can they?
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REWARD: Vote Fraud
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Le Shrooms
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A Fungus Amungus
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Joe Manchin thread
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U.S. Companies Bet Shoppers Will Keep Paying Higher Prices
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Bureaucracy
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National Commission to Investigate the January 6
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RoundTable For Fall 2021
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The GOP, goop, and political Pop-tarts
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Carbon Sequestration
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What % of humanity is batsh!t crazy?
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A Question of Culture
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Where did this car thing start?
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Mountain Meadows Massacre
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SO I guess all the nation's troubles are at an end...Trump and his fam are going to jail.

The MAGAverse is faltering as truth overtakes lies and Republicans are finally seeing the light...

Baloney.

He's not going to jail.


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Originally Posted by G. Elliot Morris
The Economist's G. Elliot Morris pointed to polls showing that a plurality of Republican voters think that state legislatures should have the right to overturn the results of presidential elections, while supermajorities believe that former President Donald Trump really won the 2020 election and that President Joe Biden is illegitimate.

In fact, Morris said that the most recent polling numbers show that 74 percent of Republican voters do not believe Biden's presidency is legitimate.


This is a poll.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to analyze and conclude Democracy is doomed in America. It also does not take a neurosurgeon to conclude the Republicans are the ones destroying America.

For those who rely on polls to do their thinking .... don't tax your brain any longer.


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Originally Posted by rporter314
Originally Posted by G. Elliot Morris
The Economist's G. Elliot Morris pointed to polls showing that a plurality of Republican voters think that state legislatures should have the right to overturn the results of presidential elections, while supermajorities believe that former President Donald Trump really won the 2020 election and that President Joe Biden is illegitimate.

In fact, Morris said that the most recent polling numbers show that 74 percent of Republican voters do not believe Biden's presidency is legitimate.


This is a poll.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to analyze and conclude Democracy is doomed in America. It also does not take a neurosurgeon to conclude the Republicans are the ones destroying America.

For those who rely on polls to do their thinking .... don't tax your brain any longer.
Democracy may be doomed here, here's why.

Why The Two-Party System Is Effing Up U.S. Democracy

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-two-party-system-is-wrecking-american-democracy/


It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
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It's the Despair Quotient!
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Oh nothing, he's just there to get the download from Vlad's "member" so it can be transferred to Trump's minions in Congress.

Disintegration my rosy red butt.
All that's happened is that it has morphed into something larger, a kind of authoritarian boilerplate that functions whether Trump is alive or dead.

https://twitter.com/highbrow_nobrow/status/1419799243334766597

Last edited by Jeffery J. Haas; 07/29/21 11:28 AM.

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Quote
a kind of authoritarian boilerplate that functions whether Trump is alive or dead.

That remains to be seen.

He's only 6 months out of office and as near as I can tell the movement is floundering. They are not converting new members nor attracting new voters. Covid is now, almost exclusively killing Republicans.

While the majority of Republicans might believe Biden is an illegitimate president, they don't have any evidence to back that up...

And the majority of Americans know that it's just boolsheet.

As far as after he is dead? He will be remembered by most as a dangerous buffoon. By history, as an abject failure as a president and human being. His followers will be seen as maddened cultists, willing to believe anything in support of their guru.

Authoritarian boilerplate, however, will not go away.

These are the TEA Party folks. Formerly John Birchers in thrall to McCarthyism. These are the folks who beat John Lewis and fought civil rights. These are the Klansmen in thrall to George Wallace. These are the slavers, the exploiters, the Tories who fought for King George during the revolution. They are visible throughout history. Always supporting brutal authoritarianism in support of their own greed and entitlement.

Because their movement is so destructive, so divisive, and so obviously unsustainable, I think we will be able to reduce their numbers back into the fringes where they belong over the next few decades. But they will ALWAYS exist.


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I recently read a great article on just that subject. (But it was long, so out of respect for others I won't link it... snooze)


You never change things by fighting the existing reality.
To change something, build a new model that makes the old model obsolete.
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I've recently read dozens of similar articles. But I seldom link them unless I'm quoting them or starting a thread...sometimes I need them to back up wild claims I've made or to start an argument.

I don't tend to dig into the details, I watch the trends like Pero watches the polls.

The Christo-fascists are digging in their heels but America, and the world, are drifting away from them.


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Even Republicans are very slowly drifting away from Trump. Back on election day 91% of Republicans viewed Trump favorably, 9% unfavorably. Question 74A.


https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/jsojry0vph/econTabReport.pdf

Today 82% of Republicans view Trump favorably, 15% unfavorably.. Question 45G

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/v60y11605p/econTabReport.pdf

But those are surface numbers, overall favorable/unfavorable. If you want to know avid Trumpers, you look at very favorable numbers, not the overall favorable. In those Republicans who viewed Trump very favorable last election was at 75%. Today, very favorable is down to 62%. That's a significant 13 point drop in avid Trumpers in the GOP. I suspect it will continue to drop. But 62% is no small number either.

One last thing, in order to be successful in elections, Republican pollsters are saying Trump needs to go away.

"Top GOP pollster: To win, ‘we need Trump to go away"

https://www.yahoo.com/news/top-gop-pollster-win-trump-123500977.html

Trump has been a god sent for the Democrats, for Biden and for the Democratic controlled congress so far. All are benefiting from the overall dislike of Trump especially among independents. Biden's honeymoon, usually a maximum of 100 days has lasted 6 months. I would say the longer Trump remains the face and leader of the Republican Party, the better chances are for the Democrats to retain control of both chambers of congress. This is solely due to independents disliking Trump. If the 2022 midterms were held today, the Democrats would pickup 1-3 senate seats, PA, NC and WI are the 3 in question. All other seats look fairly safe for the party that now holds them.

I won't venture a forecast on the House until redistricting is completed.


It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
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I won't venture a forecast on the House until redistricting is completed.

Yeah...forecast is too big a word for any conjecture we might have at this point.

Historically speaking, democrats stand to lose big, so if they do anything better than lose big it can be considered in a positive light.

You have to deal with individual districts, I only have to follow the trends.
The trend right now is not towards returning Trump to power, yet Republican voters insist their elected officials kowtow to his every murmur. Republican strategists aren't happy about their chances of re-taking the house or senate if current voter demands prevail.

So mostly I'm thinking that things might not go as badly for democrats as they could in 2022.

Biden is wisely avoiding doing "too much" and Congress is largely avoiding doing anything at all. That should keep independent voters sewed up and reap rewards in future elections.


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Today, I don't see the Democrats losing big. I say the Democrats gain a couple of seats in the senate, perhaps 3. The house is quite another matter. But losing 13 seats in 2020 may not have been a bad thing. That leaves the Democrats with less seats to defend in 2022. Instead of 235 seats, they now have 220 with 2 seats vacant which will be filled in a special elections come Nov.

Without redistricting being completed, it's hard getting a feel of safe vs. competitive districts or districts which could switch or change parties. Perhaps looking at the past first midterm elections when a president either made independents angry or not, plus job approval from independents.

2018 Independents angry at Trump, 35% approval, GOP lost 44 seats and control of the house
2010 Independents angry at Obama, 41% approval, Democrats lost 63 seats and control of the house
2002 Independents happy with Bush Jr.,59% approval, Republicans gained 8 seats, retained control of the house.
1994 Independents angry at Bill Clinton,40% approval, Democrats lost 54 seats and control of the house.
1990 Independents happy with Bush Sr., 53% approval, But the republicans still lost 7 seats.
1982 Independents angry at Reagan, 40% approval, Republicans lost 26 seats
1978 Independents angry at Carter, 42% approval, Democrats lost 15 seats

Keep in mind, the approval rating is from independents and independents only, not all adults. Also the approval rating is nationwide, not district by district. Also during Carter and Reagan independents made up only around 25% of the electorate, so their impact would be less than it is today with independents put at 40% plus.

Also, independents are happy with Biden as of today with 51% approval. Which would put the upcoming midterms more in line with 1990 and 2002 for the party in power than any of the rest.

One last thing, Gallup puts party affiliation at 30% Democrat, 24% Republican, 44% independent. But if you count independent leaners you end up with 50% democrats/independents lean Democratic vs. 41% Republican/independents lean Republican. As of 18 Jun 2021 that is.

Conclusion, as of today, the Democrats are in good shape to retain both chambers. But no predictions or forecasts except for the senate.


It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
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