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Originally Posted by perotista
Without your factors taken into consideration...
Those factors need to be considered - because they affect election outcomes. Hmm

This fact alone:
Quote
The number of COvID related deaths is nearing DeSantis' margin of victory in 2018.
...tells you COVID deaths need to be factored. smile


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I like Perotista's analysis, but I'll add a wrinkle. If the second infrastructure passes through reconciliation, Democrats will pick up seats. What people want more than anything is a functioning government.


A well reasoned argument is like a diamond: impervious to corruption and crystal clear - and infinitely rarer.

Here, as elsewhere, people are outraged at what feels like a rigged game -- an economy that won't respond, a democracy that won't listen, and a financial sector that holds all the cards. - Robert Reich
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Originally Posted by NW Ponderer
I like Perotista's analysis, but I'll add a wrinkle. If the second infrastructure passes through reconciliation, Democrats will pick up seats. What people want more than anything is a functioning government.
That, my friend, there're no truer words. As a swing voter, I dislike the word independent for some reason. That's exactly what is wanted. Until our modern political era began, that of polarization, the great divide and the super, mega, ultra-high partisanship where Republican oppose anything the Democrats propose and vice versa. We more or less on most issues had a congress that would compromise and work together to get things accomplished. A functioning government to use your word. The infrastructure bill was a very rare instance where compromise prevailed. Where the two parties came together to get something accomplished, that is if it passes, if the house don't screw it up.

This is an old article/poll but it underlines the fact that most Americans Favor Compromise to Get Things Done in Washington, in other words, a functioning government.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/220265/americans-favor-compromise-things-done-washington.aspx

That analysis was as of today, tomorrow it may not apply. When the election nears, I do these monthly. Much more in-depth by the way. The Democrats are in good shape in the senate even after the bad month of August. Not so much in the house which can't be confirmed until redistricting is completed.


It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
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Originally Posted by pdx rick
Originally Posted by perotista
Without your factors taken into consideration...
Those factors need to be considered - because they affect election outcomes. Hmm

This fact alone:
Quote
The number of COvID related deaths is nearing DeSantis' margin of victory in 2018.
...tells you COVID deaths need to be factored. smile
There were four polls conducted in Florida in August, none in September. Rubio has the lead over Demmings by 6.5 points averaging all four out. More importantly is Rubio is winning the independent vote by an average of 48-43 with 9% undecided. Add the independent vote along with the PVI of R+3 for Florida, the 6.5 point lead is right on.

On the hand, D Charlie Crist leads R DeSantis in the governors race by 12 points, 52-40. Rest undecided. Bottom line, Rubio is popular, DeSantis isn't. A majority of voters by a 51-46 margin think DeSantis cares more about running for the presidency than the future of Florida. COVID, 43% of Floridan's have a favorable view of how DeSantis is handling COVID, 53% unfavorable.

Bottom line, it seems the dislike of DeSantis hasn't effect Rubio. At least not yet.


It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
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Originally Posted by perotista
....

Bottom line, it seems the dislike of DeSantis hasn't effect Rubio. At least not yet.
Again, I like the analysis. I think that Rubio's support will fade (he's such a dweeb), but Deming (whom I really like) may not be the best competitor for that seat. It depends, I think, on how much she can appeal to Florida Hispanics, who are not generally known for being race neutral, but she definitely has a law-and-order background, which does appeal to many of that populace.


A well reasoned argument is like a diamond: impervious to corruption and crystal clear - and infinitely rarer.

Here, as elsewhere, people are outraged at what feels like a rigged game -- an economy that won't respond, a democracy that won't listen, and a financial sector that holds all the cards. - Robert Reich
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Today, Rubio looks good. A 10 point lead in the Redfield, Wilton poll, the same 10 point lead in the political Matrix poll, but only a 2 point lead in the St. Pete poll. All conducted at the end of August. With more than a year to go, anything can happen. Which poll is correct, hard to tell. That's were averaging comes into play. Rubio averages out to roughly a 7 point lead. That's understandable at this point as Rubio is the incumbent and has the higher name recognition.

Being these polls are 3 weeks old, they basically mean nothing outside of giving us an idea where the race stood at the end of August.


It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
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Originally Posted by perotista
There were four polls conducted in Florida in August, none in September. Rubio has the lead over Demmings by 6.5 points averaging all four out. More importantly is Rubio is winning the independent vote by an average of 48-43 with 9% undecided. Add the independent vote along with the PVI of R+3 for Florida, the 6.5 point lead is right on..
COVID isn't finished with red Flori-duh yet. There's still 14 mos before the election. coffee


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It will be interesting to see if they get tired of all the dying, and run DeathSantis out of the state on a rail.


We're flying electric helicopters on Mars yet you can't turn on your clothes dryer in Texas. That's because scientists are in charge of Mars, and Republicans are in charge of Texas.
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