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Greger #337136 10/13/21 09:06 PM
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give Manchin everything he wants
I propose linking voting rights to BBB. Get his vote for whatever his bottom line is .... be it money or policy .... if he votes for preserving voting rights, even if it requires a carve out for selective sequestration of the filibuster.


ignorance is the enemy
without equality there is no liberty
jgw #337137 10/13/21 09:28 PM
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republican numbers dealing with Trump, Nov 2020 75% very favorable, 16% somewhat favorable. Question 74A.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/jsojry0vph/econTabReport.pdf

Republicans as of 12 Oct 2021, 63% very favorable, 23% somewhat favorable. Question 57G

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/h2rgoa7a3x/econTabReport.pdf

You do have a 12 point drop in Republicans who view Trump very favorably, but kind of offset in that most of them dropped down into the somewhat favorable column. I'm still trying to figure out what somewhat favorable means.

I take it those who view Trump very favorably are the avid Trumpers. You may take it differently.

On voting, high vs. low turnout, I did a paper on that awhile ago. Here it is.

Is High Voter turnout benefiting the Democratic Party an old wives tale?

I have been embroiled in a debate about high voter turnout always helping the Democratic Party. I’ve stated that it was nothing more than an old wives tale. But had nothing to back my stance up. So here is the research result on that.. I used VAP since VEP was only kept track of beginning in 1980.



Average voter turnout since 1960 in presidential elections 55%.

2020 62% high Biden winner

2016 55% average, Trump winner

2012 53% low, Obama winner

2008 57% high, Obama winner

2004 56% high, G.W. Bush winner

2000 51% low, G.W. Bush winner

1996 49% low, Bill Clinton winner

1992 55% average, Bill Clinton winner

1988 50% low, G.H.W. Bush winner

1984 53% low, Reagan winner

1980 53% low, Reagan winner

1976 53% low, Carter winner

1972 55% average Nixon winner

1968 61% high Nixon winner

1964 61% LBJ winner

1960 63% JFK winner



4 Democratic and 2 Republican winners when there was a high voter turnout, above average. 4 Democratic and 3 Republican winners when the voter turnout was low or below average. 1 Democrat and 2 republican winners when the voter turnout was average. Presidential wise, I see little difference between high and low voter turnout.



Midterm House elections. The average turnout for midterms is 40%

2018 50% high, Democrats gained 44 seats

2014 38% low, Republicans gained 8 seats

2010 42% high, Republicans gained 63 seats

2006 38% low, Democrats gained 33 seats

2002 40% average, Republicans gained 8 seats

1998 37% low, Democrats gained 3 seats

1994 42% high, Republicans gained 54 seats

1990 38% low, Democrats gained 7 seats

1986 38% low, democrats gained 5 seats

1982 43% high, democrats gained 27 seats

1978 39% low, Republicans gained 7 seats

1974 39% low, Democrats gained 39 seats

1970 48% high, Democrats gained 12 seats

1966 47% high, Republicans gained 47 seats

1962 46% high, republicans gained 4 seats



I still don’t see a correlation between high and low turnout benefiting one or the other party. What I see is when the house changed hands, control 1994, 2010 and 2018, turnout was high. But in 2006 when the democrats took control of the house with a net gain of 33 seats, turnout was low. Finally, I looked back at gains of one party or the other of 30 or more seats to compare that to voter turnout in the midterms.



2018 50% high, Democrats gained 44 seats

2010 42% high, Republicans gained 63 seats

2006 38% low, Democrats gained 33 seats

1994 42% high, Republicans gained 54 seats

1974 39% low, Democrats gained 39 seats

1966 47% high, Republicans gained 47 seats



4 with high voter turnout, 2 with low voter turnout. Interesting to note that in 3 of the 4 high voter turnout midterm elections, it was the republicans who gained 30 or more seats vs. 1 for the Democrats. The two elections that had low voter turnout, the democrats picked up 30 plus seats in both of those.



My conclusion, high voter turnout only benefiting the Democratic Party is an old wives tale that we all had bought into.


It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
perotista #337140 10/13/21 11:34 PM
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Different things get different people off the couch. And you never know before the election just which ones will come out and vote.

Only 15% of Americans identify as "progressive".


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jgw #337151 10/14/21 12:30 AM
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Very true. One never knows about turnout. One also never knows who these, shall I say extra high voters or normal non-voters who get off the couch will vote for. This is why I never understand this voter suppression thing. High voter turnout is just a liable to benefit the GOP as it is the Democrats or work against them.

The myth was high voter turnout benefits the democrats, low voter turnout the republicans. The stats and numbers seem to bust that myth. My gut feeling at the moment is 2022 will be a low voter turnout year. Nothing to base that one, just a feeling.


It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
jgw #337160 10/14/21 01:00 PM
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Just received this in my inbox. It may explain a bit why Biden and company approval ratings are falling. A majority of Americans think the government is trying to do too much and is not putting enough focus on solving existing problems. That the federal government has too much power.

Americans Revert to Favoring Reduced Government Role

https://news.gallup.com/poll/355838...nt=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication

As usual, it isn’t the Republicans or the Democrats that has changed their views on the role of government, it is independents. In 2020 independents favored a more active government, 56% did so vs. 36% who thought the government was doing too much. Today, those numbers are reversed, 57% says government is trying to do way too many things, should become less active while 38% think the government should be doing more.

It seems to me when we have a crisis, folks tend to think the government should do more, to solve it. When things are going good, the government should sit on its hands and play tiddlywinks. Also check out the graph that show those in favor of more services, more taxes and less services, less taxes. What I have found out here is a majority of Americans support cutting back on services, programs as long as it isn’t a program or service that involves them.


It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
perotista #337163 10/14/21 01:35 PM
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I think the major problem regarding the federal level is that most respondents to questionnaires or polls really don’t know what they want. They vaguely want the federal government to do something, but they are not quite sure of what that something really is.


Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
Ken Condon #337166 10/14/21 02:44 PM
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Originally Posted by Pero
It seems to me when we have a crisis, folks tend to think the government should do more, to solve it. When things are going good, the government should sit on its hands
It seems to me we haven't been out of a crisis in living memory. There are at least a dozen various crises running concurrently at any given time
But what I genuinely don't understand is anyone who imagines that we are not currently having a bit of a crisis....Prices are rising, shelves are bare, ports are jammed up, covid is raging. Nearly a million dead, help is hard to find, cash is short and Republicans and independents alike have decided that this is the time to sit on our hands. No crises here folks, move along, move along...

Originally Posted by Ken
They vaguely want the federal government to do something, but they are not quite sure of what that something really is.
It's not my fecking job to know what the federal government should do. We elect and pay enormous sums of money to people who are supposed to know what to do. They in turn pay experts to figure out what the best course of action might be. Then they talk about it some and decide to do nothing.

But maybe my take on the current situation is wrong. Maybe Republicans aren't trying to drive prices up and the stock market down to improve their chances in 2022...maybe it's just my imagination.


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Greger #337167 10/14/21 03:28 PM
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Pero, I don't think you've ever fully grasped my couch-sitter theorem. You attribute it to "independents". That's as good a word as any for them.

There's a bunch who always votes.

There's a bunch who never vote.

And there's a bunch who sometimes votes. This is the gang that determines the winners.

They might or might not get off their couches. Half of them are liberal, half of them are conservative, they are registered as partisans and independents and you never know what shiny thing might get them off the couches and into the polls. Some are voting for the first time, some haven't voted for 40 years. Some only vote in presidential elections.

Most of them agree with you. 15% of them agree with me. The rest are batshit crazy.


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perotista #337168 10/14/21 03:38 PM
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it isn’t the Republicans or the Democrats that has changed their views on the role of government, it is independents
My thought on just that statement is .... they have not read the Constitution.

We, as citizens, have a contractual agreement for the creation of the federal government. Thus I go back to the foundations and read what that contract says.


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jgw #337170 10/14/21 04:48 PM
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You have to realize that independents are about as far away from being political junkies as they can possibly be. Probably the last time they read or studied the Constitution was probably back when they were in High School. They're for the most part, not politically active. Generally, they don't have a political agenda like the two major parties do. They make up 40% of the electorate, but usually around 25 or 26% of those who actually get out to vote.They'll vote on feeling, likes and dislikes and their perception of how things are going.

But even at around 25% of all those who actually do vote, they, independents have the power to decide elections. Why they vote the way they do or the reasons behind their vote vary and is usually hard to pin down. I'd say mostly on perceptions and charisma. Independents don't own the horses in an election like both major parties do. They're probably more a casual fan. sometimes interested, sometimes not.

Independents can vote 58-42 for one party and its candidates one election, then switch and vote 58-42 for the other party's candidates in the next election. They can easily cause a wave election where they throw out the party in power or they can stick with the party in power. It all depends whether or not they're angry.

In 2006 independents threw out the Republican, then elected Obama and enhanced the Demorcratic presents in both the senate and the house. Then bang, they threw out the Democrats in the house in 2010, then turned around and elected Obama for a second time, then bang again, gave the senate to the GOP. They elected Trump in 2016, bam, in 2018 they threw out the Republicans, then switched and voted in Biden.

Most of those elections, it wasn't by small numbers either. They went big for one party or the other. This is just something folks or party partisans must get use to. Either make independents happy or lose the next election. Say what you will about them, but they do decide elections and independents are a growing faction of our electorate. They have grown from 30% in 2006 to 40% today as both major parties continue to shrink.

Last edited by perotista; 10/14/21 05:12 PM.

It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
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