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perotista #337204 10/15/21 08:53 PM
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I think folks are just tired of the pandemic, they want things to go back to normal. That the election of Biden was due to or tied to that hope.

That's true...but without the pandemic Trump would have been reelected.

Republicans are doing everything in their power to keep it going because it is their path back into power.


Good coffee, good weed, and time on my hands...
Greger #337206 10/15/21 09:35 PM
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Originally Posted by Greger
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I think folks are just tired of the pandemic, they want things to go back to normal. That the election of Biden was due to or tied to that hope.

That's true...but without the pandemic Trump would have been reelected.

Republicans are doing everything in their power to keep it going because it is their path back into power.
As a numbers guy, I'll have to disagree that without the pandemic, Trump would have won reelection. Following the numbers since Trump was first was elected, they were never there for his reelection. At least in winning the popular vote. Independents constantly gave Trump a 58-61% dislike or unfavorable rating. That's from day one of his presidency to the Nov 2020 election. All the democrats had to do was to avoid nominating another Hillary Clinton which they succeeded.

54% of independents voted for Biden, another 5% voted against both Biden and Trump because they disliked both major party candidates adding up to 59% voting against Trump which happened to be the exact number who viewed Trump unfavorably. I was never worried about Trump winning in 2020, it was a case of just how bad he would lose. Trump actually received a bump due to the pandemic in March, April, May, going up to 47% approval before dropping back to his normal 44%.

You're probably right about Republicans trying to keep the pandemic going, Trump supporters anyway. On the reverse the Democrats are trying to use Trump, keep him front and centered in order to boost their election prospects. It's no secret independents don't like Trump, but as time goes by more and more independents are placing Trump into the past history column. The time where independents were kept happy just because Biden and company weren't Trump is gone. It ended in August. Now it's up to the democrats to prove they deserve reelection and just telling the voting public, independents in particular they're not Trump. That I don't think will be enough anymore.


It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
jgw #337208 10/15/21 09:52 PM
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Here's something else that will be working against the Democrats in 2022. Something they have no control over. But something quite a lot of folks will blame them for. It's all about perceptions and the ability to link this to Biden and company by the Republicans. That it is Biden's fault.

From the article.

And that means two things Americans hate: longer waits for products and higher prices once they finally arrive in stores.

How the global supply chain crisis is posing a political problem for President Biden

https://www.yahoo.com/news/global-supply-chain-crisis-posing-192443673.html

Which brings me back to reality having no place in politics or elections, it's all about perceptions.


It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
perotista #337209 10/15/21 11:05 PM
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Trump outperformed the polls due to his cultlike following.

If the supply chain snarl gets worse Democrats will likely eat it. If it gets better they are the heroes.

There's also a general workers strike going on right now. Not sure how the worker shortage is gonna play into the elections...but it will.


Good coffee, good weed, and time on my hands...
jgw #337210 10/15/21 11:42 PM
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Yes Trump did, by about 3 points whereas Biden's polling numbers were right on.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

Part of the problem was around 5% were telling pollsters they're going to vote third party. In the final results only 2% did. Trump received most of those who didn't vote third party. Maybe the stigma of saying they're voting for Trump was too much, so saying they're voting third party eliminate that knowing full well they're going to vote Trump all along. Still you had a MOE of plus or minus 3 points which most folks never take into consideration. Both did fall within the MOE. Trump's barely at plus 2.9. The polls were actually telling those who understand them Biden would receive between 48.2-54.2, Trump between 41.0-47.0.

I too have wondered about all these people not going back to work. Down here almost every business has signs out in the window, Hiring now. We've got a year to go, things can change and they will change, for the good or for the worst, no one knows.


It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
perotista #337221 10/16/21 03:46 PM
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There were NO viable 3rd party candidates to vote for, perhaps they only found out when they got the ballot in front of them....

Or were voters so ashamed of supporting Trump that they lied about it?

It's all spilt milk under the bridge now and we can assign whatever reasons we want for it.

It's almost Halftime...Dems are behind by a field goal: A field goal will tie it, a touchdown put them ahead.

They've got the ball.


Good coffee, good weed, and time on my hands...
jgw #337226 10/16/21 05:00 PM
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I have been giving some thought as to the popularity of Trump. First, he has convinced a pile of people that he was a great president. He inherited a growing economy and claimed it for himself and they were easily convinced as they also didn't much care for the black guy (and still don't) When Covid came along Trump proudly pointed out that it really wasn't his problem and stuck to the economy and actually got away with that. When it started going bad he had already set everybody but himself as the reason. His base bought it all. I think that also convinced others because they were so enthused about it all.

Trump is really good at lying and blaming and hating and he sticks to it and knows all the buttons. The Dems, on the other hand, can't even seem to get their story straight. Hell, they can't even seem to have a Democratic story to tell. Instead they seem to have little that they even agree on amongst each other. There are a lot of voters who just want gov to function and do its job. Trump did that and, when it didn't it was simply not his fault and somebody got throwed under the bus. What really stuns that even those throwed under the bus wants to support the guy who did that (his vice president is one of those).

All the Dems have to do to turn it around is to have a story and explain it and stick to it. Their problem is that they can't seem to even do that much. Its really quite amazing. Virtually ALL the talking heads of TV, especially those who support the Dems are crying out for the Dems to DO SOMETHING! ANYTHING!

They must be, obviously, saving it all up for something?

jgw #337229 10/16/21 05:32 PM
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the popularity of Trump
Do not believe any of the pundits who continue to say Trump is losing popularity. These folks are either delusional, like Rep Schiff, or baldly lying in a con. The Republican Base continues to support Trump, regardless of what any poll says. No Trump sign or flag has come down, and they all continue to believe he is the son of god ..... o and Biden stole the election.

Use that as the lens to peek into the future.


I am already practicing my personal Trumpian genuflection .... praise be to the one and only savior of America .... it's still early, and of course things may change

Greatest con in American history .... and you thought tulips were a thing


ignorance is the enemy
without equality there is no liberty
jgw #337231 10/16/21 06:49 PM
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How popular was and is Donald Trump. I like using the very favorable percentages to determine that. If one wants, you can add the somewhat favorable. I’m still trying to figure that one out. Maybe I like him a little, but not much. He’s better than an alternative perhaps? Anyhow, look at the numbers from Nov 2020, just before the election. Republicans, 78% viewed Trump very favorable, 24% of independents viewed him very favorable. I think you could call these folks avid Trumpers. The some what’s are wishy washy. But feel free to add them if you like. Question 89A

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/nzc8dt85gn/econTabReport.pdf

Today or as of 12 Oct 2021, 63% of Republicans view Trump very favorable. That’s a 15-point drop, but still is the largest faction of the GOP. More than enough to make the Republicans to bow down and kiss his butt. You want to win in the Republican Primary, you better be or at show you’re an avid Trump supporter. 21% of independents view Trump very favorably. Not much change from Nov, just a 3-point drop. Question 57G.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/h2rgoa7a3x/econTabReport.pdf

Trump hasn’t lost much popularity among Republicans and independents from what it was back in November. He has lost some though. Now I wonder if the Democrats aren’t too focused on Trump and not enough on getting things done and governing. That in 2022, Trump won’t be on the ballot much like Hillary Clinton wasn’t on the ballot in 2018. I’m sure most Democratic candidates will try to tie their opponents to Trump. But that might not work. At least when it comes to independents who are more worried about today, what has the Democrats who control government, the presidency, the house and the senate done to make my life better or are things getting worse. Independents aren’t all that worried about Trump, most I would say assigned him to past history if not ancient history. He's gone, no longer president. Independents want stuff on the shelves in stores, gas and food at reasonable prices, the economy to get going, COVID to be solved, and much more concerning their daily lives. Worrying about Trump, I doubt that makes their top 10 list.

Independents, swing voters, they know who’s in charge and which party isn’t.


It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
jgw #337270 10/17/21 04:41 PM
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The simple fact is that Trump does SOMETHING! I think Biden is trying but, so far, he has done nothing of note that would pump up his base. Oh, his base, in congress, also is trying to do something but isn't quite there yet. We tend to like our presidents to do something! We have a president who is used to working outside of the media so it can't be covered so, as far as everybody else is concerned he does nothing. Oh, he does go places and shake hands and claim things are just dandy but ................

The whole damned bunch of Dems, from the President on down seriously needs a story and they just don't get it.

It dawns on me that I am starting to think that the Dems have committed the second worst mistake: They think that they know EVERYTHING! (there are two major political sins. The first is to only talk to each other and the second is to actually believe they know everything)

Last edited by jgw; 10/17/21 04:54 PM.
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