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Ken Condon #337411 10/20/21 12:22 PM
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Originally Posted by Ken Condon
I've seen numerous polls stating that. But I've been much more concerned with 2022 than 2024. Whatever happens in 2022 will directly effect 2024 whichever way it goes. I don't think Trump will run in 2024. That's just a gut feeling. No numbers to back it up.

I do think it should be noted that those Republicans who viewed Trump very favorably in Nov 2020 was at 78%, that has dropped to 63% as of 12 Oct. These are your avid Trumpers. The somewhat favorable/somewhat unfavorable I overlook as they're wishy washy. But if one adds the somewhat favorable 23% to the very favorable that brings Trump's overall favorable's to 86% among Republicans.That's also down from 92% in Nov 2020.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/h2rgoa7a3x/econTabReport.pdf

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/nzc8dt85gn/econTabReport.pdf

I view Trump as a gift to the Democrats as independents don't like him. That is as long as the democrats don't nominate the wrong candidate. They did that in 2016 with Hillary Clinton, 70% of independents disliked her vs. 57% who disliked Trump enabling Trump to win independents 46-42 with 12% voting third party against both. 60% of independents disliked Trump in 2020, but only 48% disliked Biden. Biden won independents 54-41 with 5% voting third party against both. The dislike of Trump has been constant at around 60% give or take a point or two since he came on the scene back in 2015 vying for the GOP nomination.

By the wrong candidate, I'm referring to Harris, for some reason 60% of independents don't like her. But personality plays an important role in independents likes and dislikes. Hillary came across as aloof, an elitist, a know it all, independents didn't like her personality. Trump, rude, obnoxious, childish, independents didn't like him either. I haven't seen or heard anything on why the dislike of Harris. All I know it's there.

Biden came across as an adult. Really devoid of personality, but acted and behaved like an adult and presidential candidate should. Independents didn't have a strong dislike of him. They voted for him. Although one could say Biden was bland, old, uninspiring, lacking in charisma. That just goes to show you how much independents don't like and didn't like Trump.


It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
perotista #337417 10/20/21 04:27 PM
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So apparently no independents ever voted for Trump? They always disliked him?

Who exactly elected him then? I've been assured that independents always decide the elections so I can only assume it was them.

In an election where neither Trump nor his opponent is popular, he has a perfect record.

Biden beat him by not campaigning in 2020, he won't have that luxury again. As far as Harris goes...not even Democrats like her. If a POC hopes to bring something to the table she has to first be liked by POCs. She is neither liked nor trusted. A prosecutor who made a career of jailing POCs
She delivered California to the Democrats...a state they already had.

Manchin has won. There will be no major legislation in regards to Biden's much-touted agenda. We will not build back at all and certainly not better than before. Democrats will continue disappointing voters as they have for decades. Promising much and delivering little.

The best Dems can hope for in 2022 is hanging on to the Senate, the house is likely lost already, and as Biden's numbers go south so do their chances of keeping the Senate.

Things might change. But I ain't gonna count on it.


Good coffee, good weed, and time on my hands...
jgw #337421 10/20/21 05:14 PM
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2016 46% of independents did vote for Trump, 54% against him. Actually the numbers were 42% voting for Hillary, 12% voting against both Hillary and Trump, hence 54%. 2020, 41% did vote for Trump, 59% against him. The 54% who voted for Biden and the 5% who voted against Trump and Biden.

One can vote against one major party candidate while not voting for the other major party candidate if one dislikes and doesn't want neither one by officially registering a vote for a third party candidate or write in vote.\

Looking at the numbers available today, I'd say you're correct. The house will probably revert to the Republicans. All they need is a net gain of 5 seats. It' looks like 7-15 with some retirements of House democrats making open seats which the GOP could swing. But no wave election is likely. At least not yet. I expect the Democrats to pick up PA and WI from the GOP, have a 50-50 shot at NC. But the GOP has a 50-50 shot at NH and GA. AZ is closing. But a 1-3 Democratic seat pickup looks like the best bet at this time for the senate.

The democrats made gains last week by gerrymandering two Republicans in Oregon and 2 more in Illinois. A plus 4 in the gerrymandering wars for the Democrats so far. Actually Oregon gained a seat, so the Democrats gerrymandered one republican out of his seat along with ensuring the newly added seat would go to the Democrat. Still a plus 2.


It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
jgw #337423 10/20/21 05:45 PM
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I am tending to believe that the voting public want candidates that are actually going to do something. The public view of the Democrats is that they are a do nothing group of politicians and only seem interested in fighting with one another and accomplish NOTHING! The other night I noticed somebody actually had a Democrat being interviewed who was actually doing something! (he was a member of the house actually working on something) The Dems are a very strange group of politicians. Most of which they are doing is a secret. Their big multi-trillion dollar, whiz bang, super give-away also seems to be a secret. Now the secret is being pared down but, still, they are telling the voters not a damned thing as they seem to prefer talking about the stuff that may, or may not be something or other. Hell, they still haven't even written the legislation that they are now claiming they are going to pass in a week or two. The problem is that we have all heard it before (again and again).

What I am trying to say is that the Dems are great at doing absolutely nothing and, if they are, nobody really knows what that might be. They have now been "in charge" for almost a year. They did get the covid help thing done for starters but nothing more in, now, months - just blah, blah, blah, over and over again. Why wouldn't their numbers be down. What amazes me is that they simply don't seem to be capable of telling anybody anything that might be of real interest.

Now they are down to the end of their thing. They decided that they just wouldn't setting for anything but they would actually try and pass two huge pieces of legislation. One has to give them credit for guts but now they gotta produce or they have gifted the Republicans with a huge win next year. I think they got something like two weeks to get it done. i truly hope they pull it off but, if their ability, so far, doesn't exactly inspire.

Its gonna get interesting. I have hope but not a whole lot. I suspect that there are many that find themselves in the same place. I will vote Democratic as I can't bring myself to support the other side that tends to lies, fantasies, scare tactics and meanness and, I believe, trying to change the entire nation into something I really don't want to see. I also continue to hope that our government will, eventually drag Trump into court and convict him of a felony - thereby removing him from running for president again. (sorry, couldn't resist a little demonstration of wishful thinking)

jgw #337424 10/20/21 06:16 PM
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I don't know. Biden and the Democrats rode high from inauguration day until the beginning of August. Part of that was, I'm sure, Biden not being Trump. Biden's overall approval rating stayed between 52-55%. Neither Biden nor the Democrats in congress as far as I remember actually tried to do anything.

Now we know about the 3.5 trillion agenda, the House stalled infrastructure Bill along with the decision to withdraw from Afghanistan pretty much took place during or after August. There could be more, but that's just off the top of my head. Biden's approval has remained steady among democrats since inauguration day until today at 92% give or take a point, Republicans have given Biden a 8% approval over the same time frame, give or take a point or two. So it's independents that have dropped Biden's and the Democratic Party's approval and favorable numbers. Biden's approval dropped among independents from 53% in July down to 37% today for Biden. The Democratic Party's favorable's from 41% in July down to 24% today.

Why? For not doing anything or for trying to do something or is it something else? Just a SWAG, but perhaps it's the Trump factor. Independents were happy that Trump was gone and they gave both Biden and the Democrats high marks just because they weren't Trump or affiliated with him. Then the botched withdrawal from Afghanistan brought their focus from Trump to Biden and company. That after 6 months of giving Biden and company a honeymoon just for not being Trump came to an abrupt end.

I think most independents have assigned Trump to the dust bin of history. Not so with the current president or democratic controlled congress. I do think getting off their butts and passing the infrastructure bill would help, it certainly wouldn't hurt. Perhaps a compromised 3.5 trillion bill would also fall into this category.

Then again there's the supply and demand problem now, rising prices and inflation. Not much if anything can Biden and company do about this. But it seems independents are holding them responsible.

The bottom line is your SWAG is as good as my SWAG. I will make a prediction, the more Trump stays out of the news, out of the limelight, the worse it will seem the democrats are doing. If Trump starts getting headlines and burst back on the scene for any length of time, Biden and the democrats will improve and get better. At least with independents.


It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
perotista #337425 10/20/21 09:33 PM
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Biden's 37-38% is generally regarded as a mistaken outLIAR, that should not be used to formulate an analysis that should be disregarded. Remember GIGO!

Last edited by TatumAH; 10/20/21 09:35 PM. Reason: typo

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jgw #337426 10/20/21 10:13 PM
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Okay, Gallup independents 37%, YouGov independents 33%, Politico/Morning consult, independents 34%, Reuters 34%. Trafalgar 27.5%. Quinnipiac and Rasmussen didn't break approval/disapproval down by party.

https://news.gallup.com/interactives/185273/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/h2rgoa7a3x/econTabReport.pdf

https://assets.morningconsult.com/w...2110084_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v1_SH.pdf

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default...0Approval%20Tracker%2010%2014%202021.pdf

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/TRF-Biden-Approval-10-07-Poll-Report.pdf

I used Gallup's as I'm kind of fond of them showing 37% approval among independents. But you do have a range in all these polls from 27.5% up to Gallup's 37%.

As for overall average, all adults, I use RCP

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html

42.3% approve/51.2% disapprove. But I was talking independents as both Republicans and Democrats have remained steady at around 92% approval give or take from democrats since inauguration day and 8% from Republicans. It's independents that are moving the needle as the numbers show. If it's GIGO, then all of them are wrong.


It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
jgw #337433 10/21/21 02:59 AM
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I looked back and I still cant tell what the subject of this thread was actually supposed to be!
So, everything here may actually be offtopic, or just multiply Hijack. I just cant be sure.


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TatumAH #337443 10/21/21 01:02 PM
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Originally Posted by TatumAH
I looked back and I still cant tell what the subject of this thread was actually supposed to be!
So, everything here may actually be offtopic, or just multiply Hijack. I just cant be sure.
I don't know either. I answer questions that arise in any thread I'm interested in answering or replaying to. I think this was at one time winning elections or so I thought, think. It could have been about something entirely different.

But regardless of the thread title, whenever someone posts something I'm interested in and I want to reply, I do. It could be totally off the original topic, but I go where ever the posts lead.

I think this actually was once about the prospects of the 2022 and 2024 elections, winning them. Maybe it wasn't, but that is basically where all the posts led to which approval ratings on all the issues are germane to that. But I could be completely wrong as to what the Winning was originally intended to be. Your guess is as good as mine.


It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
jgw #337444 10/21/21 02:12 PM
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This thread is about Winning elections.

The OP determined that progressives of all stripes need to shut their mouths and go along with moderate and conservative Democrats rather than endorsing change of any sort.

This in order to win elections. Once they have a supermajority they can begin expressing desires for programs that help people instead of corporations. Until then, sit down and shut up.

Manchin and Sinema know what's best for the party!


Good coffee, good weed, and time on my hands...
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