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jgw #337445 10/21/21 03:31 PM
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Thanks Greger, I thought so. I do think the progressives with their Defund the Police rhetoric cost the Democrats 13 house seats in 2020. I don't think the in-fighting between progressives and moderates concerning the infrastructure bill and the 3.5 trillion one is what is hurting the democrats this time. For 2022 midterms.

I think it's the appearance of empty shelves in stores, the rise in prices for what is there like gas going from 2.50 a gallon to 3.50 and a loaf of bread from 2 dollars to 3 dollars along with cleaning supplies meat, etc. That those who will decide who controls what next year, aren't paying any attention to the in-fighting as most swing voters aren't political junkies like us. Passing the infrastructure bill certainly wouldn't hurt, but I don't think it would help much. Getting stuff back on the shelves in stores would help much more.

It's swing voters, independents that has caused the drop in Biden and company's approval ratings over the last 2 1/2 months. It's not legislation that has got their dander up nor is it the in-fighting among progressives and moderates. I would wager at least half if not more independents don't even realize that is going on. They don't care, but they do care when they fill up their car it costs them 40 dollars instead of 30. They care when they buy their weeks groceries, it cost them 130 dollars instead of a 100. Examples here. It's like Bill Clinton stated, it's the economy stupid. Today it's the lack of things and the rising prices.

Still, there's no wave election on the horizon. I'll stick with my 7-15 GOP pick up in the House until redistricting is completed where I can go district by district. I'll stay with my 1-3 senate seat pick up for the Dems. PA and WI are two, NC is another possibility while depending on who the candidates are, NH and GA may fall to the Republicans.


It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
perotista #337448 10/21/21 04:56 PM
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I'm totally down with your predictions as they pretty much mirror my own.

Democrats will lose the Senate and the Whitehouse in 2024. Biden is going to be another Jimmy Carter and there are a huge number of Democratic senators up for elections.

Oddly, I'm getting a weird feeling that the House might fall to Dems in 2024. It's counter-intuitive but those are local races and universal so you get a more clear picture of public concern on the issues.

While voters in 2024 might politely reject another Biden and/or Harris administration, they might not be willing to give rock-ribbed republicans free rein to do as they please.

Now...if something really good happens in the next six months...prices drop, wages rise, a mild winter with plenty of snow, no new pandemic surges, the passage of Manchin's $1.75 Trillion dollar legislation, and a quiet fire and hurricane season, things of that sort...then the picture might change.

Mostly we're sitting on our hands in an off-year watching politicians make fools of themselves at the expense of the poor.

Same as it ever was.


Good coffee, good weed, and time on my hands...
jgw #337449 10/21/21 05:17 PM
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Since I started this thing I guess I should remind that the initial beginning involved my disgust with the Dems, particularly the progressives who either don't understand about winning votes or just don't give a damn.

I am always amazed, and entertained, as to how subjects can just get completely ignored or changed.

Greger #337450 10/21/21 05:22 PM
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Originally Posted by Greger
I'm totally down with your predictions as they pretty much mirror my own.

Democrats will lose the Senate and the Whitehouse in 2024. Biden is going to be another Jimmy Carter and there are a huge number of Democratic senators up for elections.

Oddly, I'm getting a weird feeling that the House might fall to Dems in 2024. It's counter-intuitive but those are local races and universal so you get a more clear picture of public concern on the issues.

While voters in 2024 might politely reject another Biden and/or Harris administration, they might not be willing to give rock-ribbed republicans free rein to do as they please.

Now...if something really good happens in the next six months...prices drop, wages rise, a mild winter with plenty of snow, no new pandemic surges, the passage of Manchin's $1.75 Trillion dollar legislation, and a quiet fire and hurricane season, things of that sort...then the picture might change.

Mostly we're sitting on our hands in an off-year watching politicians make fools of themselves at the expense of the poor.

Same as it ever was.
2022 if far from being set in stone, 2024 might as well be 50 years into the future.With my predictions, they could change tomorrow based on new numbers. With me the House is just a SWAG, based mostly on the Generic Congressional Ballot along with retirements. Without redistricting, a SWAG is about all one can give. The Senate on the other hand is based on polls. Some new, some old. But at least the senate is based on numbers.

With a year to go before the midterms, anything can happen. All it take is for one unforeseen event to upset the whole apple cart, to turn this election upside down. On Biden's downturn, I placed the blame on Afghanistan and expected a quick recovery. That didn't happen. I overlooked supply and demand and the rise in prices. Paying too much attention to the minutia and not seeing the whole or big picture.

It happens. The good news is the Democrats have jumped out front in the money race. Following the money is a good indication as to what will happen in future elections as are retirements. Retirements are one indication about the Dems retaining the senate while retirements point to a GOP take over of the house. It's much easier to win or switch an open seat than to beat an incumbent.


It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
perotista #337589 10/23/21 08:24 PM
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2022 is far from being set in stone

2022 is a mystery wrapped in an enigma. It's unpredictable at this point and like I've said...all we can do is sit on our hands for the next six months.

BUT!

Given what we know about 2024 and the fickle American electorate....

Things don't look good for the blue team.


Good coffee, good weed, and time on my hands...
Greger #337592 10/23/21 09:12 PM
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Originally Posted by Greger
Quote
2022 is far from being set in stone

2022 is a mystery wrapped in an enigma. It's unpredictable at this point and like I've said...all we can do is sit on our hands for the next six months.

BUT!

Given what we know about 2024 and the fickle American electorate....

Things don't look good for the blue team.
Just like 2020, good will win over evil. smile


Contrarian, extraordinaire


jgw #337596 10/23/21 09:51 PM
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You do have new numbers on NH senate.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...pshire-senate-sununu-vs-hassan-7334.html

Which tends to place NH into the lean Republican Category and a possible Republican pickup. GA remains in the lean Democratic column, Warnock has raised a ton of money, mostly from out of state which irks the heck out of me since they can't vote for the guy.

WI and PA still look like Democratic pickups, NC is a pure tossup, 50-50. So instead of 1-3 Democratic net gain for 2022, I'm going with 1-2. Nothing has changed in the House, still 7-15 net gain for the GOP even with Oregon's and Illinois's gerrymandering in favor of the Democrats, plus 4. 38 states to go on redistricting, plenty of time for the Republicans to do their gerrymandering to off set the current plus 4 Democratic gerrymandering advantage. Time will tell.

2024, I still can't wrap my mind around that yet. It probably depends on who the democrats nominate. The Democrats took the safe bet in 2020 with Biden. Will they be smart enough in 2024 to do the same especially if the GOP goes with Trump or DeSantis, a Trump clone. And yes, independents, swing voters are very fickle. A Harris/trump or Harris/DeSantis match up could result in another 2016. 9 million independents voted third party in 2016 whether than choose between Trump and Hillary Clinton. You could have twice that many in 2024 if those are the match ups. That's not counting how many just stayed home and said to heck with it.

Personally, I rooting for Tammy Duckworth. As a non-partisan, non-affiliated swing voter, if the match up for 2024 is between Trump and or DeSantis vs. Harris, I'd probably vote third party again as I did back in 2016. Tammy, I'd vote for.


It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
perotista #337600 10/24/21 12:22 AM
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I almost didn't vote for Biden because of this. And I'll vote for practically any stupid democrat.

Biden wants to shoot for two terms. The party will go with the incumbent or heavily favor his VP.

Primary contests will be discouraged. Nobody else really waiting in the wings.

Reeps want Trump but failing that will take DeSantis, Niki Haley is waiting in the wings.

2024 is a lot easier to speculate about right now. Everything I'm saying might change.

And it might not.


Good coffee, good weed, and time on my hands...
jgw #337603 10/24/21 12:50 AM
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That's the beauty of speculation. It might be right and it might be wrong, but it's sure is a lot of fun.

I take Biden at his word when he said during the primaries he'd serve one term. Now whether he meant that or not or just said that to attract a few votes his way is another matter. Almost all a politician, candidate says during the campaign, primary or general, one can basically just throw it out the window.

One thing to remember, having a president who has a primary challenge either ends up dropping out of the race of loses in the general election. Hence everyone doing his best to prevent a primary challenge.

Truman was challenge by Kefauver in 1952, Truman dropped out.
LBJ challenged by McCarthy, LBJ dropped out in 1968
Reagan challenged Ford in 1976, Ford lost to Carter
Buchanan challenged Bush in 1992, Bush lost to Bill Clinton

The thing is if a sitting president has a primary challenge, that sitting president is in trouble to begin with.

I'll stick with 2022, I think whatever happens in 2022 will directly effect the 2024 election.


It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
perotista #337690 10/25/21 02:37 PM
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I take Biden at his word when he said during the primaries he'd serve one term.

Wel,l you can take him at his word on this later statement then...

Quote
President Joe Biden on Thursday(3/25/21) said he expects to run for reelection in 2024 with Vice President Kamala Harris on the ticket.

"The answer is yes, my plan is to run for reelection," Biden said at his first presidential news conference. "That's my expectation."
Politico

So you can take him at his word on this. He will run unless he is physically unable. If he doesn't he and the party will endorse Harris. This isn't just speculation.

Trump has also said he will run if he is healthy. 82% of Republicans want him to run.

Republicans are going to make the election in 2022 about Trump and the stolen 2020 election. About government overreach during the pandemic, about the border crisis, and about Biden's fading mental acuity.

You've been in this game long enough to know what's going to happen.


Good coffee, good weed, and time on my hands...
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