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jgw #339054 11/30/21 06:43 PM
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We are a two party nation. New parties have tried and failed several times. The last success, I think, was the Republican party which was an offshoot of the Whigs because, basically, the Whigs supported slavery and those that left that party to form the Republican party was a majority of the Whigs.

Now, however, I think we have a different problem. I think that all party members, of either party, have stopped talking to anybody but each other. This is a major sin of politics and, now, its also the shame of the parties. Neither, I suspect, actually have a clue. Hell, the Democrats are in such bad shape that their main thing these days is to publicly fight amongst themselves. The Republicans, however, seem to be in a process of probably starting a new party for conservatives. This is being reflected by the Lincoln Project.

I watch a lot of TV news and its becoming more and more obvious that the talking heads of Democratic TV are pretty disgusted with the Democratic party. Its not as obvious as the Republicans but close. I suspect that next year's election is going to not go well for the Dems. I also suspect that if that's true there are going to be some Dems start talking to each other about doing something about their own problems.

In other words I believe that we are living in a time of huge changes in our political parties. My only real problem is that is so damned hard to watch people in either party actually even try to fix their problems. The Republicans are just, I think, a bit ahead of the Dems but they just might catchup if they have the debacle everybody thinks they are going to have.

OH - I want to wish us all good luck!!

jgw #339056 11/30/21 07:21 PM
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There’s a bit of a split on the left, IMO, of wether you should organize to pressure Dem Corp to move back from the right or let it implode by walking away. The ‘organize and pressure’ folks think if you don’t like the present you’ll really hate the future with the far right in the saddle.
The ‘let it burn’ folks respond by saying Dem Corp is a wholly owned subsidiary of the right wing and is unreformable. Let it collapse under the weight of its own insignificance.

I’m in the latter (no suprise). There has never been anything done for working class people without outside pressure. Not from my read of this countries’ history. The current party is a dead corpse walking cept as a protest against the worse politics of the far right. That any hope for left progressive politics will come from outside the 2 party system dominated by moneyed interests. Labor militancy can be one avenue and their has been some progress there. Jacking things up for concessions is a historical tactic and there seems to be a growing realization now.

Imagine my surprise to see this op/Ed from business insider:

“ Pundits in the mainstream news and most political analysts have offered predictable advice: The Democrats must become more conservative, abandon their progressive policies (even though they're popular with voters), and court swing voters who care about overhyped culture war issues like Critical Race Theory — even though those voters have proven themselves disloyal to Democrats over and over again.

Democrats have won some elections by capitulating to the right and center — that is, after all, how Biden won in 2020. But relying on these voters is not an effective strategy. These latest elections, and the loss of Hillary Clinton in 2016, are proof that moderates, even ones who have supported Democrats recently, are quick to turn their backs on Democrats and realign with Republicans”

Democrats can't win elections and c... money somewhere that will actually help

jgw #339062 11/30/21 09:31 PM
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Originally Posted by jgw
We are a two party nation. New parties have tried and failed several times. The last success, I think, was the Republican party which was an offshoot of the Whigs because, basically, the Whigs supported slavery and those that left that party to form the Republican party was a majority of the Whigs.

Now, however, I think we have a different problem. I think that all party members, of either party, have stopped talking to anybody but each other. This is a major sin of politics and, now, its also the shame of the parties. Neither, I suspect, actually have a clue. Hell, the Democrats are in such bad shape that their main thing these days is to publicly fight amongst themselves. The Republicans, however, seem to be in a process of probably starting a new party for conservatives. This is being reflected by the Lincoln Project.

I watch a lot of TV news and its becoming more and more obvious that the talking heads of Democratic TV are pretty disgusted with the Democratic party. Its not as obvious as the Republicans but close. I suspect that next year's election is going to not go well for the Dems. I also suspect that if that's true there are going to be some Dems start talking to each other about doing something about their own problems.

In other words I believe that we are living in a time of huge changes in our political parties. My only real problem is that is so damned hard to watch people in either party actually even try to fix their problems. The Republicans are just, I think, a bit ahead of the Dems but they just might catchup if they have the debacle everybody thinks they are going to have.

OH - I want to wish us all good luck!!
jgw - there's been no change since I last posted the senate which is still a 2 seat net gain for the Democrats, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania as of 30 Nov 2021. As for the house - Currently the House of Representative consists of 222 Democrats, 213 Republicans. The GOP needs a net gain of 5 seats to take control of the House. Until redistricting is completed it is impossible to determine the total at-risk seats for both parties. As of 30 Nov 2021, 24 states have completed their redistricting. 157 districts have been redrawn, out of those 157, 16 are competitive or switchable. The democrats hold 13 of these seats vs. 3 for the GOP. Probable net gain for the Republican Party, 4-6 seats out of those districts that have already been redrawn. 278 districts have yet to be redrawn.

As for a viable third party, never happen. Republicans and Democrats write our election laws and they do so as a mutual protection act. If there’s one thing both major parties agree on, even if they don’t talk to each other, it’s no viable third party will ever rise. Another reason is financial. Corporations, Wall Street Firms, lobbyist, special interests, super, mega individual money donors give all their cash to the two major parties and none to third parties. The two major parties raised and spent 14 billion dollars on the 2020 elections, in third place was the Libertarians who raised and spent a bit less than 3 million. No third party can compete being outspent 14 billion to 3 million.

https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2020/10/cost-of-2020-election-14billion-update/

So, what happens is swing voters, independents tend to vote for one party one election and then the other party the next election. It doesn’t matter if both major parties make up 52% of the electorate these days or even if they drop to 40% or 30% between them. They have all the power, they have all the money, they have a monopoly which both major parties are determined to keep.


It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
perotista #339063 11/30/21 10:08 PM
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Except that it's lonesome work
sevil regit
chunkstyle #339070 11/30/21 10:52 PM
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The Democrats must become more conservative, abandon their progressive policies (even though they're popular with voters), and court swing voters

That's where I'm at right now. The progressive movement has failed for now so let's hand over control of how far bills go to Manchin, get some bipartisan bills passed that don't freak out the moderates, and try to turn down the pressure a bit.

Quote
Dem Corp is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the right-wing and is unreformable. Let it collapse under the weight of its own insignificance.

Maybe America has enough on its plate right now without legislating gigantic expensive social programs. Maybe this is a good time for the parties to work together a little bit.


Good coffee, good weed, and time on my hands...
jgw #339084 12/01/21 12:50 AM
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Would be nice if we could get both parties to work together for a little bit or at least on something. But today we’re in this modern political era of polarization, the great divide and the super, mega, ultra-high partisanship. Where one party will always oppose anything proposed by the other party automatically with no merits given to the proposal. We’re in a political era where 1/3rd of Democrats and 1/3rd of Republicans view the other party as this nation’s number one enemy, more of an enemy than China, Russia or whoever.

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/pu...voters_see_each_other_as_america_s_enemy

I’m positive before we can get any cooperation between parties again, we must leave today’s modern political era behind us. I don’t see that happening anytime soon.


It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
perotista #339089 12/01/21 03:25 AM
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Ten years, Pero. Starting in 2022 when the House falls and ending When DeSantis boards Marine One and heads for the airport at the end of his second term in 2032.

There's a lot of water under the bridge between now and then though, and the tiniest of chances I could be wrong...

A decade will see most of the boomers in congress replaced by millennials. Trump will be long dead and forgotten. That's when I think things are going to start looking up. So take your vitamins, stop smoking, and eat a balanced, nutritious diet and prepare to put up with a lot more bullsh*t before things begin to improve much.

But there's a feck ton of elections between now and then and the balance of power will continue to tilt back and forth and the amusement will be endless!

Six months. Give or take. Before we can really begin predicting 2022.

We got to sit on our hands for 6 months. Anything we say until then is sheer speculation.
The events that happen between now and then will mold the course of the midterm election.

All the redistricting should be in place by then too so you'll have a handle on those numbers.
And I will throw the bones, consult the ancestors, and use all the archaic means at my disposal and I betcha not much changes from our current guesses about the future.


Good coffee, good weed, and time on my hands...
jgw #339091 12/01/21 04:31 AM
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I don’t share your 10-year hypostasis, although anything can happen. You could end up being right. My predictions if one wants to call them that are based on the numbers available today, not six months from now, a year or 10 years. So, all of them are if the election was held today. I haven’t the faintest idea what the numbers will show six months from now. I do, however, know the trend for the house is moving in the Republican’s direction and has since August. The senate has been stagnated with no movement whatsoever. Probably caused by a dearth of polls and in some states, none. I do have a good grasp on the 175 already drawn districts, the number of competitive districts has been decreased, drawn out of existence. There’s 5 less in these 175 newly drawn districts than under the than under the old maps. But that is to be expected.

It's high past time in my book for the youngsters to take over. The older folks have become too set in their ways. It will take the younger generations to get us out of our modern political era of polarization, the great divide and the super, mega, ultra-high partisanship. The old fogies won’t move on. I keep on thinking that at some time while the party faithful of both major parties keep shrinking, percentage wise. That one or the other will realize that they need to regain those who left their party for whatever reasons. That those who don’t have a grasp on the issues, just perceptions right or wrong, leaving them to decide elections. 44% if Gallup is correct is a huge percentage to have as non-affiliates, to have as swing voters or independents. Those that don’t pay much if any attention to politics until an election nears, then their attention is haphazard, some to only sound bites.

We’ll see as time goes by; you might be correct. I just can’t get past 2022, at least to give the future past that date much thought or research.


It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
jgw #339098 12/01/21 05:31 PM
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There are only a few possible outcomes of each election...

Which party wins is a 50/50 guess. 2020 was easy, despite Trump's legions of devotees his numbers over the course of his term said he was unelectable for a second term. He didn't get a majority of the votes in his first election and never really tried to win new voters.

He's still unelectable for a second term unless Democrats fail spectacularly. A very distinct possibility but time is on their side right now.

The House in 2022 is easy. Dems will lose seats because the party in power always loses seats. Even though every election is different and history is meaningless, as our colleagues insist, that axiom to the equation almost always holds true. If they had a substantial majority it wouldn't matter, but they don't and Reeps need only a few pickups to take control.

I don't examine individual seats until some headline draws my attention. Most are fairly safe but you never know where an anomaly might pop up, where a safe candidate gets caught with his hand in somebody's pants, or some old dirt gets dug up.

Surprises happen. They could happen in the Senate too, a single loss changes it all.

Democrats have got six months to shuffle things around, propagandize, manipulate, and try to get their approval rating up without actually doing anything. Passing a watered-down but bipartisan BBB is probably their best bet strategically.

If the latest variant of the virus proves somewhat benign and we continue to move past the pandemic, the stock market will soar, the jobs market will begin to return to normal with increases in pay across the board. Fuel prices will plummet(grocery prices will take longer) and Democrats will gladly take the credit (even though they insist none of it was their fault) and maintain control of the Senate.

In the longer term...

If things remain on an even keel, and Democrats abandon any notion they might have of running Harris or Buttigieg, we might see Democrats maintain control in 2024. Hopefully with someone we have currently never heard of. Someone like Beto O'Rourke, with a clean record, a wide smile, and Hollywood charisma.

But right now, if the 2024 election was held today, things look bleak for the Dems.

And because the Dems are in the majority here it's my job as moderator and content creator to rub their noses in the bleakest of possibilities imaginable. But one that WILL happen if things don't go just right. De Santis is a warrior, his political instincts are razor-sharp. He's kept the base without bowing to Trump. He WILL win against Biden or Harris unless things go spectacularly between now and then.

And he's a pretty good administrator behind the scenes too. Say what you will about the silliness of Florida in general, our economy seems to be doing fine, our covid case-loads have fallen and things seem to be going great here, under complete Republican control.

If he gets elected he will get re-elected as that is more normally what happens unless a president fails for one reason or another. Biden was never anything but a placeholder while the country did a re-set. No one pinned their hopes and dreams on him, they just hoped he's muddle through.

Last edited by Greger; 12/01/21 05:37 PM.

Good coffee, good weed, and time on my hands...
jgw #339106 12/01/21 08:16 PM
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I don’t see anything to disagree with, Greger. Yes, the house will fall next year, the only question is by how many seats. With 20 Republicans and 14 Democrats up for reelection next year in the senate, a net gain of 2 seats for the Democrats would be average. Chris Sununu deciding not to run for Hassan’s seat in NH helps the Democrats. Probably turning a loss into a win for Hassan. Pennsylvania with Doc OZ deciding to run as a Republican most likely facing current Lt. Gov Fetterman leaves that seat up in the air. At least until some polls start coming in. Fetterman did have a double-digit lead over 3 prospective GOP senate nominees. So, we’ll see how OZ polls later.

Most folks, independents, swing voters that is voted for Biden to bring some sanity and normalcy back to the White House. They wanted the man-child spoiled brat gone. They didn’t vote for any major legislation. Just putting an adult back in the White House. The Numbers from 2020 prove that, 41% of swing voters, independents voted for Trump, 54% for Biden. Swing voters wanted Trump gone. But in the congressional races, 48% of independents voted for Republican congressional candidates vs. 49% for Democratic congressional candidates. In the senate races, it was 51-47, independents voting for Republican senators and in the governor races a bit wider 52-46 for GOP governor candidates.

Hence my conclusion that 2020 was all about getting rid of Trump for swing voters, but no mandate or even acceptance of the Democratic Party’s agenda or ideals. If it was Biden with his huge 7 plus million vote win over Trump would have brought along some new Democratic House members instead of losing 13.


It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
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