I think one fails to understand that 2016 was just as much about Hillary Clinton as it was about Trump or the dislike of both. The nomination of both left many Americans scratching their heads, surely think the nomination process was broke.
25% of all Americans disliked and didn't want neither Trump nor Clinton to become the next president. That included an astounding 54% of all independents.
In the end, 12% of independents, 6% of all those who voted in 2016 choose to punt on choosing between those two. Instead deciding to vote against both Trump and Clinton by voting third party. That came out to 9 plus million voters.
Hillary lost the independent. I think this time around a lot of Democrats considered that fact when they chose Biden. Definitely not the one the progressive wing wanted. But one that was a much safer choice to win and to be able to attract independents. Which Biden did, winning them 54-41 over Trump instead of losing them. Third party vote in 2020 was in the more normal range of 2% instead of 6 while 5% of independents this year voted third party instead of 12%. most of that difference went to Biden.
You can also tell by the difference in favorable/unfavorable of the candidates by America as a whole. Trump in 2016 36% favorable/ 60% unfavorable, Trump in 2020 43% favorable/56% unfavorable. A slight improvement. Clinton in 2016 was seen 38% favorable/56% unfavorable. Two very unfavorable and dislike candidates. In 2020, Biden 52% favorable/46% unfavorable.
I expected Biden to win by more than 4 points, but that all depends on turnout and who turns out. I also expected, was darn right sure Biden would return Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin back to being blue. He also added Georgia and Arizona. Those were 50-50 in my book.
So the presidential election went as I expected it too. What was a surprise was the GOP success down ballot. One thing is for sure, the democrats still haven't realized how much Hillary was disliked in 2016 and it seems the Republicans haven't come to terms how much Trump was disliked this year. It's all in the numbers.
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.