I agree with everything stated so far, but here's the rub: gerrymandering and vote rejection.

The Republicans are on a tear destroying democratic institutions in their States and establishing fascist-like one-party election systems, and restructuring the Districts to suit their continued power grab. It is basically clear that they have no agenda, no new ideas, and no fealty to fairness or Constitutional norms. But, they do have majority control of a majority of States and intend to flog that for all it's worth for as long as they can.

Based on the official counts of the 2020 Census, Pennsylvania, New York, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, California, and West Virginia will each lose one seat, Texas will gain two seats, and Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, Oregon, and Montana will each gain one seat. With the exceptions of Oregon and Colorado, this shift will play into the hands of State Republican parties.

Of the States gaining seats, only Colorado and Montana have independent Commissions redrawing Districts. Texas and Florida are one-party States, and North Carolina's legislature does not consult the Governor for redistricting and is solidly Republican. Absent a significant change in either their postures or court edicts, they will definitely finagle Republican gains there.

I think the only thing that might swing 2022 in Biden's favor is continued success. The economy is already rebounding, COVID is fading (except in the South, where its denizens refuse to get vaccinated), but the congressional crunch is about to take place. Infrastructure will pass in some form, because reconciliation is available, but every other initiative will be stymied. What will matter is who is blamed, and who gets credit.

A well reasoned argument is like a diamond: impervious to corruption and crystal clear - and infinitely rarer.

Here, as elsewhere, people are outraged at what feels like a rigged game -- an economy that won't respond, a democracy that won't listen, and a financial sector that holds all the cards. - Robert Reich