I expect it will take a few years, but Afghanistan will turn into Vietnam, post withdrawal. Running an insurgency is very different from running a country. It takes entirely different skills. People will rise in the Taliban ranks as they demonstrate their ability to administer their districts. Leadership will rise as the leaders demonstrate their ability to oversee the whole country. It can't all be mindless sharia, and nothing else. Just look at Iran: Sure they have their religious leaders, but they also have military and a political class, too. They also have decent relations with other countries and a lot invested in a free-trade economy.

We're flying electric helicopters on Mars yet you can't turn on your clothes dryer in Texas. That's because scientists are in charge of Mars, and Republicans are in charge of Texas.