Originally Posted by perotista
We'll see. Parties always adjust. The White vote has been consistent since 1972 with the Republican candidates receiving 55-58% of the white vote with the exception of 1992 and 1996 mainly due to Ross Perot candidacy. Blacks too have been consistent since 1980 giving the Democratic candidate 90% of the vote with the exception of 1992 and 1996 when Perot drew 7% and 4% which caused the democratic candidate to fall below 90%. Trump Received 57 and 58% of the white vote in 2016 and 2020. But increased his black vote from 8% to 12% from 2016 to 2020. Biden received 87% of the black vote, the lowest for a Democrat since 1980 again with 1992 and 1996 being exceptions.Even Mondale in Reagan's landslide year of 1984 received 90% of the black vote.

Hispanics has been much more flexible than either whites or blacks. Giving Reagan 35 and 37%, G.H. W. Bush 30 and 25%, Dole 21%, G.W. Bush 35 and 44%, McCain 31%, Romney 27%, Trump 28 and 32%. So we have a range between 21-44% for Hispanic's historically voting for Republican presidential candidates.

The Republican Party knew they had to do something after Romney's defeat, they began an outreach toward Hispanics, which came to an abrupt end with Trump. Yet Trump did better among Hispanics than Romney with 28 and 32% while seemingly trying to alienate them.

Trend or one shot, there's the history as brief as I can make it. Now here's the latest generic congressional poll which asked which party one would vote for in the up coming 2022 congressional election. This is nationwide, not district by district which can't be done until redistricting occurs, so put as much stock in it as you care too.

Overall 42-40 for Democratic congressional candidates over Republican congressional candidates.
Whites 46-36 Republican over democratic
Blacks 72-14 Democratic over Republican
Hispanics 51-31 Democratic over Republican
Asian and other races, plus mixed, 41-41 tie

The rest are in the other, voting for a third party candidate or not sure so the totals won't add up to 100%


I added the generic ballot as it seems blacks are becoming more willing to vote Republican while whites could be leaving the GOP ranks. Trend or one shot? Perhaps the midterms will help answer that as for minorities becoming more willing to vote Republican.
I love your analysis, but not your source. As far as past votes, those are mostly in stone. Rasmussen's polling, however, is often questionable. I think it's also relevant to point out that is mixing race and ethnicity. "Hispanic" is an ethnic designation, which includes such a mix of races, nationalities, and attitudes it is almost a meaningless designation, unless very carefully parsed.

Nonetheless, it is good to parse the elections to make predictions. Well done, sir.

A well reasoned argument is like a diamond: impervious to corruption and crystal clear - and infinitely rarer.

Here, as elsewhere, people are outraged at what feels like a rigged game -- an economy that won't respond, a democracy that won't listen, and a financial sector that holds all the cards. - Robert Reich