Florida Rubio R – Close, but the polls give Rubio a 5-10 point lead at this time over Val Demmings. Republican hold R 50 D 50
Pretty sure with DeSantis killing his base, Flor-i-duh will turn blue.
Same with Abbott and Texas. Florida Record DeathsBloomberg News
You can't mandate people from wearing masks and not have an effect on election outcomes. Flor-i-duh had 2,345 COVID deaths last week - and it's not even winter.
The number of COvID related deaths is nearing DeSantis' margin of victory in 2018.
Without your factors taken into consideration, COVID etc. There has been movement from 2000-2020 for the states one way or the other. Using PVI, Partisan Voting Index which rates states on their partisan voting you'll see several states moving from red to blue and blue to red. Some are more apparent then other, some more subtle. but the movement is there. From 2000 to 2020
Arizona from an R+7 down to an R+3. Moving blue.
Florida R+3 Same rating as in 2000.
Georgia From an R+10 down to an R+3 Moving blue
Michigan from a D+6 to a R+1 Moving Red
North Carolina from an R+13 down to a R+3 moving blue
Ohio From an R+4 up to an R+6 Becoming more red
Pennsylvania from D+4 to a R+2 moving red
Texas from an R+20 down to an R+5 moving blue
Wisconsin from an D+10 to a R+2 moving red
The above is a 20 year change in the partisan voting index. Now one must understand independents can overcome any PVI for one party or the other and elect someone from the party that has the lower PVI. This happen in Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania in 2020 with independents voting Democratic by more than 10 points overcoming the Republican PVI. The PVI also explains Trump carrying Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in 2016 where independents sided with Trump, barely.
The 20 year trend shows some states in the south, NC, GA, TX moving from Red to blue. That is being offset by some states in the Midwest moving from blue to red, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin while Ohio is becoming more redder. Keep in mind all of this is very dynamic and changes constantly. But there is a trend showing. I would also say any state with a PVI of +5 or lower are considered swing states. Where independents decide the winner and not the party faithful.