I like Perotista's analysis, but I'll add a wrinkle. If the second infrastructure passes through reconciliation, Democrats will pick up seats. What people want more than anything is a functioning government.
That, my friend, there're no truer words. As a swing voter, I dislike the word independent for some reason. That's exactly what is wanted. Until our modern political era began, that of polarization, the great divide and the super, mega, ultra-high partisanship where Republican oppose anything the Democrats propose and vice versa. We more or less on most issues had a congress that would compromise and work together to get things accomplished. A functioning government to use your word. The infrastructure bill was a very rare instance where compromise prevailed. Where the two parties came together to get something accomplished, that is if it passes, if the house don't screw it up.
This is an old article/poll but it underlines the fact that most Americans Favor Compromise to Get Things Done in Washington, in other words, a functioning government. https://news.gallup.com/poll/220265/americans-favor-compromise-things-done-washington.aspx
That analysis was as of today, tomorrow it may not apply. When the election nears, I do these monthly. Much more in-depth by the way. The Democrats are in good shape in the senate even after the bad month of August. Not so much in the house which can't be confirmed until redistricting is completed.