Sometimes I think this gerrymandering thing too hyped up. As Pondering pointed out, districts change over time. Prime example is GA 6th district. It’s just north of Atlanta. In 2012 and 14, R Price was winning the district with 60-65% of the vote. Then folks from Atlanta flooded into the district which in 2018 D McBath won a close one only to win in 2020 55-45. The 6th went from solid Republican to solid democrat in that short time span. Folks moving in, moving out, dying, new voters being added, changed the dynamics immensely.
It seems gerrymandering has a huge impact for the first couple of elections, then it becomes a crap shoot for the final 3. What makes the difference here in Georgia is the court ordered majority minority districts. It meant the democrats would have 5 congress members before any vote took place, all black. The rest was all white GOP until the 6th changed hands in 2018 giving the democrats 6 vs. 8 for the GOP.
At last count there were 22 majority black districts where blacks made up 51% or more of the population, 30 majority Hispanic districts, 2 majority Asian districts. Which means the Democrats are almost guaranteed 50 seats prior to any house election. But this also dilutes the democratic strength in the remaining 385 districts giving the GOP a much better chance of winning in those. For the Record, all 22 majority black districts are represented by black democrats, 25 of the 30 Hispanic districts by democrats with 5 Republican Hispanics and both Asian districts are democratic.
So does these court ordered majority minority districts give the Democrats a huge advantage in that it basically guarantees them 50 seats before any congressional election takes place or is that guarantee offset by the chances the Republicans have in winning in the remaining 385 since these 50 districts are over stacked with Democratic voters? I’ve always wondered about that. I even started doing a paper on it a couple of times before I let it go by the wayside. So, what do you think?