early indications are a 10-15 seat loss for the Democrats in the House, a 1-3 seat gain in the senate.
If Democrats can pull this off it will still be a historically GOOD performance in a midterm election.

There is some small chance that Rick could be right though. When you're already assured a better than average performance you can hope for crazy results.

Right now we've got an economy in crisis and an ongoing pandemic. A mediocre administration and a Congress controlled by conservatives.

The economy isn't going to recover until the pandemic is under control. Like everything else...Republicans are fighting against government control of the virus. They like the bootheels approach where American heroes with guns pull a random medication from the barn vet box and magically cure themselves! Then they shoot some looters.

I don't know the full scope of it but apparently, every country is having problems with anti-vaxxers and anti maskers. Bolsonaro has said he'll be the last man in Brazil to get vaccinated!
Documents have surfaced which show the same cavalier attitudes existed in the 1914 flu epidemic.

That same 30% who keep popping up all over the place.

If they annoy the other 70% enough over the next 13 months then we may see some actual surprises come election day. The signs and portents look good right now with a Dem landslide in Cali and the "Justice for J6" rally flopping mightily in Washington.

Sort of a coast-to-coast middle finger to the anti-science crowd.

Good coffee, good weed, and time on my hands...