Originally Posted by Greger
early indications are a 10-15 seat loss for the Democrats in the House, a 1-3 seat gain in the senate.
If Democrats can pull this off it will still be a historically GOOD performance in a midterm election.

There is some small chance that Rick could be right though. When you're already assured a better than average performance you can hope for crazy results.

Right now we've got an economy in crisis and an ongoing pandemic. A mediocre administration and a Congress controlled by conservatives.

The economy isn't going to recover until the pandemic is under control. Like everything else...Republicans are fighting against government control of the virus. They like the bootheels approach where American heroes with guns pull a random medication from the barn vet box and magically cure themselves! Then they shoot some looters.

I don't know the full scope of it but apparently, every country is having problems with anti-vaxxers and anti maskers. Bolsonaro has said he'll be the last man in Brazil to get vaccinated!
Documents have surfaced which show the same cavalier attitudes existed in the 1914 flu epidemic.

That same 30% who keep popping up all over the place.

If they annoy the other 70% enough over the next 13 months then we may see some actual surprises come election day. The signs and portents look good right now with a Dem landslide in Cali and the "Justice for J6" rally flopping mightily in Washington.

Sort of a coast-to-coast middle finger to the anti-science crowd.
Until redistricting to completed, the House is a crap shoot. Rick may be as right as I. I'm more firm on the senate. I do agree limiting the GOP to a gain of 10-15 seats should be considered a victory of sorts. Moral perhaps. But something to build on come 2024.

What hurt and is hurting the Democrats was losing 13 house seats in 2020 while Biden was winning the presidency by 7 plus million votes. When a presidential candidate wins by that much, one expects him to have coat tails and bring along or get elected at least 20 or more new Democratic house members. 2020 was so unique in that regard, you have to go back to 1884 for the last time a presidential candidate won the popular vote via to white house and his party lost house seats. The reason why, only 41% of independents voted for Trump, but 48% voted for Republican congressional candidates, 51% for GOP senate candidates, 53% for GOP governor candidates. That a lot of ticket splitters. Voting for Biden for president, then voting Republican down ballot.

I was going to add that if the Democrats hadn't lost those 13 seats, the GOP would need a net gain of 18 seats instead of 5 to retake control of the house. But on further reflection, with all new district lines being drawn, I don't think that means much or as much if the voting to be done in 2022 was in the same existing districts. Still, a net gain of 5 seats is still much easier than a net gain of 18, so I'll leave this in.

It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.