I don't think past performance will be a useful predictor of the 2022 election. Republicans have an economy their guy screwed getting fixed by Biden and Democrats in Congress, states passing voter restriction laws to preserve minority rule, a disgraced ex President who sided with Russia over US intelligence, the attempted coup of January 6th, and an unprecedented devotion to maximizing the death toll of the pandemic.

By November 2022, all of these things are just going to be more obvious as more insurrectionists go to prison, more anti-vaxxers die, the House investigation goes public with Republican collusion, more indictments occur, etc.

Not business as usual.

We're flying electric helicopters on Mars yet you can't turn on your clothes dryer in Texas. That's because scientists are in charge of Mars, and Republicans are in charge of Texas.