I haven't given Texas much thought, the governor races belong to someone else. The House and senate are mine. Texas is an R+5 PVI which means most statewide races will be competitive, but the Republicans have the partisan advantage. Democrats in Texas must win the independent vote by a good margin to win there, statewide that is.doable with the right candidate/s.

It's the opposite nationwide, Republicans can't win the presidency unless they win independents. Nationwide it is D+3 which simply means for a Republican to win the popular vote, the GOP candidate would have to win independents by 6 points, give or take depending on the turnout of each party.

Just keep in mind these PVI's are as the first of the year, 2021 But are useful in determining how a state leans. But in the end it boils down to the candidates, the hot issues and recent events. Unless a state has a PVI of above 10, then it is considered safe, solid. When dealing with PVI's, the best rule of thumb is independents decide any election in a PVI of 0 to +5. Although there always are exceptions as with Jones winning in Alabama a couple of years ago, but that was more candidate driven than PVI or partisan driven. Jones won the independent vote 60-37 which enabled him to a 2 point win. You're not going to find many elections where independents will give one candidate a 20 point win. That is about as rare as you can get.

It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.