2016 46% of independents did vote for Trump, 54% against him. Actually the numbers were 42% voting for Hillary, 12% voting against both Hillary and Trump, hence 54%. 2020, 41% did vote for Trump, 59% against him. The 54% who voted for Biden and the 5% who voted against Trump and Biden.
One can vote against one major party candidate while not voting for the other major party candidate if one dislikes and doesn't want neither one by officially registering a vote for a third party candidate or write in vote.\
Looking at the numbers available today, I'd say you're correct. The house will probably revert to the Republicans. All they need is a net gain of 5 seats. It' looks like 7-15 with some retirements of House democrats making open seats which the GOP could swing. But no wave election is likely. At least not yet. I expect the Democrats to pick up PA and WI from the GOP, have a 50-50 shot at NC. But the GOP has a 50-50 shot at NH and GA. AZ is closing. But a 1-3 Democratic seat pickup looks like the best bet at this time for the senate.
The democrats made gains last week by gerrymandering two Republicans in Oregon and 2 more in Illinois. A plus 4 in the gerrymandering wars for the Democrats so far. Actually Oregon gained a seat, so the Democrats gerrymandered one republican out of his seat along with ensuring the newly added seat would go to the Democrat. Still a plus 2.