I'm totally down with your predictions as they pretty much mirror my own.
Democrats will lose the Senate and the Whitehouse in 2024. Biden is going to be another Jimmy Carter and there are a huge number of Democratic senators up for elections.
Oddly, I'm getting a weird feeling that the House might fall to Dems in 2024. It's counter-intuitive but those are local races and universal so you get a more clear picture of public concern on the issues.
While voters in 2024 might politely reject another Biden and/or Harris administration, they might not be willing to give rock-ribbed republicans free rein to do as they please.
Now...if something really good happens in the next six months...prices drop, wages rise, a mild winter with plenty of snow, no new pandemic surges, the passage of Manchin's $1.75 Trillion dollar legislation, and a quiet fire and hurricane season, things of that sort...then the picture might change.
Mostly we're sitting on our hands in an off-year watching politicians make fools of themselves at the expense of the poor.
Same as it ever was.
2022 if far from being set in stone, 2024 might as well be 50 years into the future.With my predictions, they could change tomorrow based on new numbers. With me the House is just a SWAG, based mostly on the Generic Congressional Ballot along with retirements. Without redistricting, a SWAG is about all one can give. The Senate on the other hand is based on polls. Some new, some old. But at least the senate is based on numbers.
With a year to go before the midterms, anything can happen. All it take is for one unforeseen event to upset the whole apple cart, to turn this election upside down. On Biden's downturn, I placed the blame on Afghanistan and expected a quick recovery. That didn't happen. I overlooked supply and demand and the rise in prices. Paying too much attention to the minutia and not seeing the whole or big picture.
It happens. The good news is the Democrats have jumped out front in the money race. Following the money is a good indication as to what will happen in future elections as are retirements. Retirements are one indication about the Dems retaining the senate while retirements point to a GOP take over of the house. It's much easier to win or switch an open seat than to beat an incumbent.