I almost didn't vote for Biden because of this. And I'll vote for practically any stupid democrat.
Biden wants to shoot for two terms. The party will go with the incumbent or heavily favor his VP.
Primary contests will be discouraged. Nobody else really waiting in the wings.
Reeps want Trump but failing that will take DeSantis, Niki Haley is waiting in the wings.
2024 is a lot easier to speculate about right now. Everything I'm saying might change.
And it might not.
Greger, your pessimism got me thinking. Dangerous I know. But I figured it was time to do some more numbers checking and comparison. Not using job approval, that only applies to a sitting president. Instead looking at favorable/unfavorable ratings as history has shown folks usually don't vote for someone they dislike. What I found is I may have brushed Trump aside too soon.
Go back to Jan 2021 Biden 54% favorable/42% unfavorable. Trump 37% favorable/59% unfavorable. Those numbers are close to matching the Nov 2020 numbers.
Aug 2021 Biden 51% favorable/46% unfavorable, Trump 40% favorable/56% unfavorable. some change for both, not much though.
25 Oct 2021 Biden 44% favorable/51% unfavorable, Trump 44% favorable/53% unfavorable. Trump's and Biden's number are about even. I knew Biden was dropping, but never considered Trump's would climb.
If those two matched up today in a presidential election, it would be a 50-50 election.
So what about the Generic Congressional Ballot, Polls on the generic congressional ballot didn't begin until May. In May the democrats had a 49-40 lead, in August a 45-41 lead and the democrats lead today, 25 Oct 2021 44-42. Perhaps loss of faith in the democratic controlled congress critters, they dropped from 49 down to 44%. But Republicans congress critter hasn't really risen much, 2 points from 40-42.
I don't think these numbers show a Trump rehabilitation, but more of a disappointment in Biden and company. Especially among independents. I'd say Biden needs a win, the infrastructure bill stalled in the house would be an excellent start.