The latest on redistricting.
Six states have now finalized their redrawn congressional maps for the 2020s: Oregon, Maine, Nebraska, Indiana, West Virginia and, most recently, Texas. Democrats have gained seven seats nationally from the redistricting process so far, Republicans have gained one, and the number of competitive seats has dropped by six. Some of this is because Republicans lost a seat due to reapportionment in West Virginia and Oregon Democrats were able to use their control of the redistricting process to draw a significantly more favorable map for themselves, but it is also due to Texas Republicans giving Democratic incumbents safer districts in exchange for shoring up their own seats.
So Texas is a wash. If gerrymandering occurred there, it was to give incumbents safer seats. Both parties ensuring self-preservation. No huge gerrymandering for a Republican advantage in Texas took place. The Illinois map, although drawn hasn't been finalized and voted into law. Once signed into law the Democrats gain 2 seats there. So far redistricting contrary to Democratic fears has been going all the Democrats way.
So as of 25 Oct 2021 redistricting, if one counts Illinois which will be final in a few days, the Democrats has a plus 8. A democratic gain of 9 minus the GOP gain of 1. This could make for the Republicans retaking the house much harder.
This is why i said the generic congressional ballot only shows a nationwide preference on who or one would be voting for. It's not district by district. Another interesting aspect of all this is instead of having 9 competitive districts if one went by the old map, you're down to just 3. There's been 66 out of the 435 districts drawn so far and signed into law. When Illinois finishes, that will be another 17 districts to be added.
The biggest surprise so far is Texas. No Republican gerrymandering as I suspect everyone thought they would. Illinois and Oregon gerrymandering was no surprise, those two states did the same after the 2010 census. Now Texas, big surprise. I suppose one could say Texas gerrymandered quite a lot, but it was gerrymandering to make incumbents of both parties safer, not to give one party a big advantage. Anyway, that my take on this.
Last edited by perotista; 10/27/21 01:39 AM.