I don't see any red wave. Not yet anyway. My 7-15 GOP House pickup stands until more redistricting is completed as does the 1-2 Democratic senate seat gain.
One has to remember the gerrymandering wars, so far the Democrats have taken basically 7 competitive seats and made them solid Democratic seats, the GOP has 1 which so far is a plus 6 for the Democrats. What this means for 2022 is that there will be less competitive races for the Republicans to switch.
What I noticed beginning in August, since you touched on it. Is that more and more independents have assigned Trump to the dust bin of history. It took 6 months, from inauguration day until the end of July for independents to realize Trump is no longer president, no longer in charge. He's gone, ancient history so to speak.
August was a pivotal month. That's when independents finally moved on from Trump to focus on Biden and company. August was the last time McAuliffe had a double digit lead. It all coincides. Trump is no longer important to independents. It's what is happening today that is. That brings me back to empty shelves in some stores and rising prices. Especially gas prices and food.
When gas rises from 2,00 a gallon up to 3.30, people notice, when a loaf of bread rises from 2.00 to 3.00 people notice. No or limited cleaning supplies, people notice, the price of meat rising 25%, people notice.
When Virginia is all done, I want to see how independents voted. That will either prove, if not prove back up my theory, assumption that Trump has ceased being important to independents or I'll fall flat on my face. There's a real possibility, independents may not give an owl's hoot about the 1-6 hearings when they occur. Ancient history, Trump's gone, no longer in charge. Maybe.