Watched the Braves become World Series champs last night. This AM I'm shocked New Jersey not called. Murphy had a 10 point lead in the polls and there're a million more Democrats in NJ than Republicans. Murphy should have waltzed. Even if Murphy pulls this out, NJ is much more a shocker than Virginia which everyone expected to be close.
As for Virginia, I was right that it boiled down to the independent vote. Remember Biden won Virginia independents last year 58-37, McAuliffe lost them last night 54-45. That a 30 point swing from independents voting Democratic a year ago to voting Republican this year. From a plus 21 to a minus 9. I would say Trump is no longer a factor among independents, at least a majority of them. More bad news out of Virginia, it seems the Republicans will also regain control of the House of delegates, A double whammy for Democrats in Virginia.
I don't know what Murphy did wrong if he did anything wrong. NJ was totally off my radar screen. We all know McAuliffe campaign against Trump and not Youngkin. He tried to make the race national. Then McAuliffe put his foot in his mouth with his Parents remark. That may have been the turning point. Youngkin strategy was to campaign to win independents, he took his base, the GOP base for granted. I never seen that done before, but it worked. Youngkin knew Democrats in Virginia had a 5 point party affiliation advantage over the Republican Party. He knew he had to win independents or lose the election. Apparently McAuliffe didn't give independents a second thought.
Since independents made up 31% of those who actually voted yesterday, winning them by 9 points was enough to overcome the Democrats party affiliation advantage. I've always said nationally, independents decide elections. In Virginia, independents decided this one also.https://www.cnn.com/election/2021/november/exit-polls/virginia/governor/0
I couldn't find any exit polls on NJ, but I suspect it was independents that made that race so close. I'm also fairly sure Murphy will pull it out. Last night, my Atlanta Braves were the winner, politics irrelevant. With the Braves WS champs, now it's time to start paying attention again.
I'd remember that governor races are usually decided on local issues. Although some will vote in support or against the party who holds the presidency. Although with a year to go before the midterms, I'd say last night results have nothing to do with what will happen a year from now. But last nights results shows folks aren't happy with Biden and company. Plenty of time to fix that, but somehow I don't think Biden and company will take heed of this warning.
I also think this shows that Trump isn't on most independents radar screen anymore. But Biden and company are.