Here’s what the polls showed in 2016, Hillary winning the popular vote by 3.2 points, she won the popular vote by 2.1 points. Well with the MOE of plus or minus 3 points. The polls weren’t wrong, the pundits were.https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...eral_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
With 107 of the 435 new districts drawn, we have 5 currently held democratic seats and 1 republican seat in the competitive category. The rest look safe for the party that now holds them. All this means is that these six seats are switchable, it doesn’t mean they will switch. As of tonight, the senate still looks like a 2 seat pick up for the Democrats. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. NC and GA are pure tossups. One from each party.
I will add this, swing voters who are willing to vote for candidates from either major party don’t give a cat’s meow as to who is responsible for inflation. They only care that it is and that it is hitting their pocketbooks. Let the political pundits figure out who’s to blame and let the two major parties go around blaming each other. That means nothing to them, only the fact it is for real. It’s like Greger says, these folks, these swing voters who do vote aren’t worried about what benefits will arrive in the future from either the infrastructure bill or the BBB. They’re worried about today, now, the present. Not next month, next year, five years from now or ten. Today.
I’ll add this, Biden and company better figure out a way to get the price of a gallon of gas down to around $3.00 by Nov 2022 or I’ll guarantee the Republicans will take control of the house. Pundits will be trying to make elections very complicated, they’re not usually. 2022 will center around price rises and possible empty shelves. 2020 centered around swing voters dislike of Trump as did 2018. 2016 was swing voters disliked Hillary more than Trump. 2010 and 14 the ACA was still the albatross around the Democrats necks. 2008, G.W. Bush’s recession and swing voters tired of war and so on.
Now if Biden and company get inflation under control, a new issue might replace it. He’s got a year. Oh, swing voters don’t give a coyote’s howl about Trump anymore. He’s ancient history, no longer in charge, no longer president. McAuliffe found this out in Virginia two weeks ago when swing voters went for Youngkin 54-45. Only a year ago, they went to Biden 57-38 in Virginia.
And Greger, I stand corrected. Now James Carville, now there was an excellent political strategist who knew how to win elections. Old snake eyes.