Senate and house update 22 Nov 2021
Senate +1-3 equals lean, but within the MOE. These states are very competitive with one party or candidate having a slight advantage. +4-6 outside the MOE, equals likely, the candidate’s or party’s lead is outside the MOE. +7 and above, those states aren’t listed. They’re considered solid or safe for the party that currently holds them.
Arizona Kelly D – Kelly +4 Democratic hold R 50 D 50
Florida Rubio R – Rubio +4 Republican hold R 50 D 50
Georgia Warnock D – Warnock +2 Democratic hold R 50 D 50
Nevada Cortez Masto D – Cortez Masto +5 Democratic hold R 50 D 50
New Hampshire Hassan D – Hassan +5 Democratic hold R 50 D 50
North Carolina Burr R – Burr is retiring, open seat. Republican candidate +1 Republican hold. R 50 D 50
Pennsylvania Toomey R – Toomey is retiring, open seat. Democratic candidate +2 Democratic pick up. Democratic gain R 49 D 51
Wisconsin Johnson R – Democratic candidate +2 Democratic gain R 48 D 52
Ohio, R Portman, Missouri R Blunt, Vermont, D Leahy are retiring, these open seats may make my watch list if they become competitive later. As it stands now, the Democrats have a net gain of 2 seats leaving them in control 52-48.
House of Representatives
Currently the House of Representative consists of 222 Democrats, 213 Republicans. The GOP needs a net gain of 5 seats to take control of the House. Until redistricting is completed it is impossible to determine the total at-risk seats for both parties. As of 22 Nov 2021, 21 states have completed their redistricting. 126 districts have been redrawn, out of those 126, 11 are competitive or switchable. The democrats hold 8 of these seats vs. 3 for the GOP. Probable net gain for the Republican Party, 3 seats. 309 districts have yet to be redrawn.